【摘要】：人民幣匯率走勢及其升值預(yù)期已經(jīng)成為國際焦點(diǎn)話題。美國等西方國家不斷向中國政府施加壓力,要求人民幣升值,導(dǎo)致了人民幣匯率的升值預(yù)期進(jìn)一步上升。我國從2005年7月的匯率改革至今,人民幣升值幅度已經(jīng)達(dá)到30%之多,而且一直是單邊升值。截至2011年12月,人民幣對美元匯率降至1美元兌6.3281元人民幣。從中長期看,人民幣仍有升值壓力。 根據(jù)經(jīng)典的國際收支理論,一國進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易條件只要滿足“馬歇爾—勒納”條件,貨幣升值會惡化一國貿(mào)易收支,貶值則能改善一國貿(mào)易收支。然而本文通過對人民幣匯率制度的演變過程和中美貿(mào)易收支關(guān)系的發(fā)展歷程的回顧,發(fā)現(xiàn)除了1994年我國匯率改革使人民幣匯率瞬時大幅貶值對中國貿(mào)易收支改善有比較明顯的促進(jìn)作用以外,大多數(shù)時間里,人民幣匯率升值并未使中國對美國巨額順差得到顯著改善。 在第一章中,本文針對人民幣升值預(yù)期這一熱點(diǎn)話題展開討論,試圖解釋實(shí)際現(xiàn)象與經(jīng)典理論不符的原因。提出了本文的研究思路、論文框架及創(chuàng)新和不足�；居^點(diǎn)是：人民幣匯率對中美貿(mào)易收支的影響有限,除匯率以外的其他因素卻對中美貿(mào)易收支具有比較大的影響。其中,匯率預(yù)期應(yīng)作為一個不容忽略的影響因素存在。因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)中,一國居民作為長期效用最大化者,其選擇行為不僅受到當(dāng)期價格的影響,必然也會受到所預(yù)期的未來價格(匯率預(yù)期)的影響。 在第二章中,本文將分別對匯率及匯率預(yù)期與貿(mào)易收支關(guān)系的理論和實(shí)證研究進(jìn)行梳理。從現(xiàn)有研究文獻(xiàn)可以發(fā)現(xiàn),匯率變動與國際貿(mào)易收支之間的關(guān)系,長期以來一直是國內(nèi)外學(xué)者集中研究的問題。由于所使用的實(shí)證方法、數(shù)據(jù)以及研究的目標(biāo)時間段和關(guān)系不同,這部分文獻(xiàn)還比較凌亂,尚未形成一致的結(jié)論。尤其是關(guān)于匯率預(yù)期與貿(mào)易收支關(guān)系的研究,國內(nèi)外尚處于初步探索階段。理論研究并沒有建立在消費(fèi)者行為的基礎(chǔ)上,而是直接對宏觀變量的關(guān)系進(jìn)行假設(shè),缺乏必要的微觀基礎(chǔ)；實(shí)證研究尚不完善,未能給出包含匯率預(yù)期在內(nèi)的變量間的動態(tài)過程,也沒有探索影響貿(mào)易余額各因素的相對重要性。本文力圖在繼承以上研究成果的基礎(chǔ)之上,從這些方面加以改進(jìn)。 在第三章中,本文對人民幣匯率制度的演變和中美貿(mào)易收支關(guān)系的發(fā)展歷程進(jìn)行了回顧。可以看出,人民幣匯率制度的發(fā)展歷程大致是一個由完全被政府控制的固定匯率制到形成人民幣市場匯率的過程,是政府干預(yù)逐漸減弱、市場作用不斷增強(qiáng)、人民幣匯率彈性不斷加大的過程。其間,人民幣匯率經(jīng)歷了大幅貶值、基本穩(wěn)定到緩步升值的發(fā)展階段。但是現(xiàn)階段的人民幣匯率制度,很大程度上還依賴于政府的干預(yù),沒有形成完全市場化的匯率。實(shí)際上,人民幣匯率升值并未使中國對美國巨額順差得到顯著改善。 在第四章中,本文針對以上問題,提出相關(guān)假設(shè),并構(gòu)建了一個兩國家,分別生產(chǎn)兩種貿(mào)易品,在兩個時期的收入為確定,并且共同面臨既定的世界利率,擁有相同的效用函數(shù)的跨期消費(fèi)選擇模型。從理論模型的角度來分析人民幣實(shí)際匯率、人民幣匯率預(yù)期、中國收入、美國收入對中美貿(mào)易余額的影響。得出結(jié)論是：中美貿(mào)易余額是人民幣實(shí)際匯率、人民幣匯率預(yù)期、中國收入、美國收入4個變量的函數(shù)；中國對美國貿(mào)易順差受到人民幣匯率和美國收入的正向影響、受到匯率預(yù)期和中國收入的反向影響。因此,本幣貶值對出口需求的影響有可能會被同方向的匯率預(yù)期的變動所抵消,當(dāng)期本幣的貶值未必會帶來貿(mào)易余額的改善,特別是在匯率的變動呈現(xiàn)出一定趨勢,匯率預(yù)期穩(wěn)定的情況下。 在第五章中,本文將通過實(shí)證研究對理論模型的結(jié)論進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。先對1999年1月至2011年4月期間相關(guān)變量月度數(shù)據(jù)的對數(shù)值進(jìn)行平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn),得出所有變量均為一階單整單位根過程。再運(yùn)用Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)的方法和向量誤差修正模型(VEC)分析各個變量之間的關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明,在中美貿(mào)易余額、人民幣實(shí)際匯率、人民幣匯率預(yù)期、中國實(shí)際收入和美國實(shí)際收入之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系,并且其相互關(guān)系同理論模型的結(jié)論一致。此外,本文在向量誤差修正模型的基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)行了方差分解和脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)的計(jì)算。結(jié)果表明,中美貿(mào)易余額并不存在“J曲線效應(yīng)”；人民幣匯率與匯率預(yù)期對中美貿(mào)易余額的影響是暫時性的,從長期來看,人民幣匯率及匯率預(yù)期對中美貿(mào)易余額的解釋力遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于收入因素。而其中,美國收入因素又是最具有解釋力的,因此可以認(rèn)為,中美雙邊貿(mào)易失衡,中國巨額貿(mào)易順差形成的最主要原因在于美國方面對中國的進(jìn)口需求而不是人民幣匯率水平及匯率制度。 在第六章中,本文進(jìn)行了研究結(jié)論總結(jié),并基于我國外匯市場的現(xiàn)狀和我國國情,從引導(dǎo)匯率預(yù)期的角度出發(fā),提出了相關(guān)政策建議。認(rèn)為把中美貿(mào)易不平衡的問題簡單歸咎于人民幣被低估的說法是不正確的,美國各界所鼓吹的人民幣升值論根本無法緩解美國巨額的貿(mào)易逆差。這一觀點(diǎn)直接導(dǎo)致要求人民幣升值的呼聲高漲,使人民幣形成持續(xù)的升值預(yù)期,反而將繼續(xù)導(dǎo)致中國對美貿(mào)易順差居高不下。對我國人民幣匯率的關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)不應(yīng)該脫離我國的利益訴求,并且不能違背對市場技術(shù)規(guī)律的把握。在面對外界施加的人民幣升值壓力時,我國需要自己化解,也需要國際社會能給予理解和融通。中國是發(fā)展中國家,人民幣作為中國的本幣尚未完全開放,缺少制度保障體制,并不能超越貨幣資質(zhì)承擔(dān)不能也不應(yīng)該駕馭的國際責(zé)任,中國的匯率政策應(yīng)滿足自身所處階段的發(fā)展訴求,以及自我保護(hù)對策的原則。
[Abstract]:The trend of RMB exchange rate and its appreciation are expected to be the subject of international focus. Western countries, such as the United States, are constantly putting pressure on the Chinese government to appreciate the yuan's appreciation, which has led to a further increase in the value of the yuan's exchange rate. Since the reform of the exchange rate in July 2005, the appreciation of the RMB has reached as much as 30% and has been a one-sided appreciation. As of December 2011, the currency fell to a dollar of 6.3281 yuan against the dollar. In the medium and long term, the yuan still has a pressure of appreciation. According to the classical balance-of-payments theory, a country's trade-of-trade terms can improve a country's trade and expenditure, and the depreciation can improve a country's trade and expenditure as long as it meets the "Marshall 'sellner" conditions. However, through the review of the evolution of the RMB exchange rate system and the development of the relationship between China and the U.S. trade and expenditure, it is found that, in addition to the effect of China's exchange rate reform in 1994, the rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has a significant effect on the improvement of China's trade and expenditure, most of the time In the past, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate did not significantly change China's huge surplus to the United States In the first chapter, this paper discusses the topic of appreciation of the RMB, and tries to explain that the actual phenomenon is not in line with the classical theory. The reason of this paper is to put forward the thought, framework and innovation of this paper. The basic point of view is that the effect of the RMB exchange rate on the trade and expenditure of China and the United States is limited, but other factors other than the exchange rate have a great effect on the trade and expenditure of China and the United States The effect of the exchange rate is expected to be an unnegligible effect. In that real economy, the choice behavior of a country is not only influenced by the current price, but also be subject to the expected future price (expected of the exchange rate). In the second chapter, the paper will study the relationship between the exchange rate and the exchange rate expectation and the trade income and expenditure, respectively. The relationship between exchange rate and international trade and expenditure has long been the focus of domestic and foreign scholars. The problem of the study is that, due to the different empirical methods, data and the target time period and relationship of the study, this part of the literature is also messy and has not yet been formed. A consistent conclusion. In particular, the study on the relationship between the expected exchange rate and the balance of trade and expenditure, at home and abroad, is at the beginning of the year. The research of the theory is not based on the behavior of the consumer, but the relationship between the macro variables is assumed, the necessary micro-base is lacking, the empirical study is not perfect, and the variable room, including the expected exchange rate, is not given. The dynamic process of the trade balance has not been explored and the factors that affect the balance of trade balance are not explored. The paper tries to find out the relative importance of the above research results. The development of the RMB exchange rate system and the development of the relationship between China and the U.S. trade and expenditure in the third chapter The course is reviewed. It can be seen that the development of the RMB exchange rate system is a process of the exchange rate of the fixed exchange rate fully controlled by the government to the formation of the RMB market exchange rate, which is the gradual weakening of the government's intervention, the continuous enhancement of the role of the market and the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate The process of increasing, in which the RMB exchange rate has experienced a significant depreciation, is basically stable to a slow step However, the current RMB exchange rate system is largely dependent on the government's intervention and has not been formed The full-market exchange rate. In fact, the appreciation of the yuan's exchange rate did not make China's big difference to the U.S. In the fourth chapter, this paper puts forward the relevant assumptions and constructs a two-country two-country production of two kinds of trade products. The income of the two periods is determined and the established world interest rate is faced together, and has the same utility function. From the perspective of the theoretical model, the real exchange rate of the RMB, the expected rate of the RMB exchange rate, the income of China and the income of the United States are analyzed. The effect of Sino-US trade balance is that the trade balance between China and the United States is a function of the real exchange rate of the RMB, the expected exchange rate of the RMB, the income of China and the income of the United States. China's trade surplus with the United States is positively influenced by the RMB exchange rate and the income of the United States, and is expected by the exchange rate. As a result, the impact of the depreciation of the local currency on the export demand can be offset by the expected change of the exchange rate in the same direction. The depreciation of the local currency in the current period does not necessarily lead to the improvement of the trade balance, especially in the exchange rate. The rate is expected to be stable. In the fifth chapter, this paper will adopt an empirical study. The results of the theoretical model are verified. The numerical values of the monthly data of the relevant variables from January 1999 to April 2011 are tested for stationarity, and all the variables are obtained. The method of Johansen co-integration test and vector error correction model (VEC) are used. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between China and the U.S. trade balance, the real exchange rate of the RMB, the expected exchange rate of the RMB, the real income of China and the real income of the United States, and it is related to each other. In addition, on the basis of the vector error correction model, the variance analysis is carried out on the basis of the vector error correction model. The results show that the trade balance between China and the United States does not exist in "J-curve effect". The effect of RMB exchange rate and exchange rate on Sino-US trade balance is temporary. In the long term, the exchange rate and exchange rate of RMB are expected to be the balance between China and the United States. The explanation is far less than the income factor, and in which the U.S. income is the most explained, it can be said that the two-way imbalance between China and the United States, the most important reason for China's huge trade surplus, is the U.S. import demand for China, not the one On the basis of the present situation of the foreign exchange market and the national conditions of our country, the paper makes a summary of the exchange rate and the exchange rate system of the people's currency, and based on the present situation of the foreign exchange market in our country and the national conditions of our country, from the angle of the expected value of the From the point of view, the relevant policy suggestions are put forward. It is not correct that the issue of the imbalance between China and the United States is simply attributed to the undervaluation of the RMB, and the value of the RMB appreciation advocated by the various circles of the United States is not correct. The huge trade deficit in the U.S. could not be alleviated. This view directly led to a surge in the call for a rise in the yuan, which would continue to lead to a sustained appreciation of the renminbi. China's trade surplus with the United States is high. The focus of China's RMB exchange rate should not be separated from the interests of our country, and not can run counter to the grasp of the market technical law. In the face of the pressure of the RMB appreciation, China needs to resolve itself, and also need to China is a developing country, the currency is not fully open in the local currency of China, the system guarantee system is missing, and cannot exceed the international responsibility that cannot be controlled by the qualification of the currency. China's exchange rate policy should To meet the development of the stage of the self.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.7;F224

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