【摘要】：在開放經(jīng)濟條件下,外匯儲備是一國所持有國際儲備資產(chǎn)的重要組成部分,是由貨幣當(dāng)局持有且流動性較高的外幣資產(chǎn)。外匯儲備用來調(diào)節(jié)國際收支的平衡、穩(wěn)定匯率、進行對外債務(wù)的清償。因此外匯儲備是反映一國經(jīng)濟、金融實力的一個重要指標(biāo)。一定水平的外匯儲備不僅是我國順利開展對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易的重要保障,還能有效對抗外部金融風(fēng)險的沖擊,保持匯率穩(wěn)定以及提高我國的國際信譽。 我國外匯儲備的發(fā)展是一個從無到有,從少到多的過程。目前我國官方有統(tǒng)計的外匯儲備數(shù)據(jù)從1950年開始,從外匯管理局的數(shù)據(jù)可以看出,從建國初到改革開放前夕,我國外匯儲備的年平均持有量為1.7億美元。1979年改革開放開始,外匯儲備較前一階段有了較大增長,但總體仍處于較低的水平。1994年我國進行了外匯管理體制改革,人民幣官方匯率與外匯調(diào)劑市場價格并軌,實行以外匯市場供求為基礎(chǔ)的、單一的、有管理的浮動匯率制。也是從1994開始,我國開始出現(xiàn)持續(xù)的雙順差。國際收支賬戶的失衡帶來了持續(xù)增長的外匯儲備。1996年我國放松了經(jīng)常項目的管制,實現(xiàn)了經(jīng)常項目下的自由兌換,在當(dāng)年底實現(xiàn)了外匯儲備的首次破千億。外匯儲備從此進入持續(xù)高速增長階段。2006年2月我國外匯儲備超過日本成為世界第一,2009年6月增長到2萬億美元,2011年3月份,我國外匯儲備正式站上3萬億美元的新高。 大量積聚的外匯儲備體現(xiàn)了我國國際支付能力的增強和經(jīng)濟實力的增長,除此之外,高額的外匯儲備帶來了很多負面影響。外匯儲備的超常增長帶來過量的流動性,增加了通貨膨脹的壓力。為了維持匯率的穩(wěn)定和貨幣政策目標(biāo)的實現(xiàn),央行進行頻繁的公開市場操作以沖銷外匯占款所增加的流動性又支付了高額的成本。另一方面美國的量化寬松政策、債務(wù)上限問題以及主權(quán)評級的下調(diào),經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇的乏力,都使得我國持有的大量美元外匯資產(chǎn)面臨縮水的危險,嚴重影響我國外匯儲備資產(chǎn)的安全性及保值增值要求。另外歐元區(qū)一些國家也陷入債務(wù)危機和財政赤字,使歐元區(qū)面臨解體危機,我國持有的歐元資產(chǎn)的安全性也因此面臨威脅。 外匯儲備這把雙刃劍使我國政府面臨著兩大挑戰(zhàn)。挑戰(zhàn)之一是如何實現(xiàn)外匯儲備投資的多元化,包括減持美元資產(chǎn)尤其是美國國債,增持其他貨幣資產(chǎn)、股權(quán)、資源甚至黃金等。更重要的挑戰(zhàn)是,如何通過結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整抑制外匯儲備的超常增長。中國外匯儲備面臨的這些困境和調(diào)整也使得外匯儲備問題成為最近幾年經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們研究的一個熱點。 正是在這樣的背景,本文以國際經(jīng)濟學(xué)基本經(jīng)濟理論為依托,運用外匯儲備理論、國際收支理論,嚴格遵從理論研究的學(xué)術(shù)規(guī)范,在大量閱讀國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,認真吸取前人研究成果,從我國外匯儲備的發(fā)展歷程、現(xiàn)狀、存在的問題及影響、造成我國外匯儲備困境的原因等方面對我國外匯儲備展開研究,并提出了應(yīng)對和解決我國外匯儲備超常增長的對策。 本文共包括六章,其結(jié)構(gòu)安排如下： 第1章：前言。對選題背景、研究意義進行了相關(guān)論述。并對研究外匯儲備問題及影響、外匯儲備安全性、外匯儲備困境的原因相關(guān)文獻進行了回顧。 第2章：相關(guān)概念界定,相關(guān)理論綜述。闡述了外匯儲備的定義以及功能,總結(jié)了關(guān)于外匯儲備規(guī)模適度性的相關(guān)理論,為下文中評價我國外匯儲備規(guī)�，F(xiàn)狀提供一定的理論基礎(chǔ)。 第3章：我國外匯儲備的基本狀況。通過數(shù)據(jù)和報告來大致劃分我國外匯儲備發(fā)展演變過程,當(dāng)前的外匯儲備整體規(guī)模狀況。通過對中國官方、美國財政部國際資本系統(tǒng)(TIC)、IMF的官方外匯儲備幣種結(jié)構(gòu)數(shù)據(jù)庫(COFER)三方面的數(shù)據(jù)來推斷及測算中國外匯儲備中的幣種結(jié)構(gòu)以及其中美元資產(chǎn)的結(jié)構(gòu),以便進一步了解外匯儲備的狀況。 第4章：我國外匯儲備存在的問題及影響。在第2章里介紹了衡量外匯儲備適度性方面比較有代表性的理論,盡管都存在著各種缺陷,但仍然有一定參考性。而我國的外匯儲備不管用哪種衡量方法,都明顯存在著規(guī)模過大的問題。而通過第3章里的結(jié)構(gòu)分析也可以看出在外匯儲備的具體結(jié)構(gòu)上存在著過度集中于美元資產(chǎn)與固定收益資產(chǎn)的問題。我國外匯儲備的規(guī)模過大、結(jié)構(gòu)不合理的問題帶給我國經(jīng)濟的影響在這一部分進行了詳細的闡述。 第5章：我國外部經(jīng)濟失衡與外匯儲備的超常增長。這一章指出我國的外部經(jīng)濟失衡是造成我國外匯儲備增長過快的主要原因,其中經(jīng)常項目的失衡占據(jù)主要地位。因此要分析我國外匯儲備增長過快的原因就要從研究經(jīng)常賬戶失衡的原因入手。在開放經(jīng)濟條件下,一國的外部經(jīng)濟失衡不可能是單方面的原因。本文分別從美國與我國方面入手,論述了影響我國經(jīng)常賬戶失衡的因素,并在數(shù)據(jù)真實可獲的基礎(chǔ)上選取了財政收支差額、利率水平、人民幣對美元匯率、人口負擔(dān)系數(shù)作為解釋變量,用進出口差額替代經(jīng)常項目順差作為被解釋變量,建立模型進行計量分析。分析的結(jié)果證實政府支出的擴大和利率水平的降低有利于經(jīng)常賬戶順差的減少,人口撫養(yǎng)比的降低屬于增長經(jīng)常賬戶順差的因素。而人民幣的升值對于經(jīng)常項目順差的減少并沒有明顯的影響。 第6章：政策建議。根據(jù)前述理論分析及實證結(jié)果,分別從減少經(jīng)常賬戶順差以及資本項目順差的角度提出了緩解外匯儲備超常增長的建議。另外還對調(diào)節(jié)已有外匯儲備存量結(jié)構(gòu)方面提出了相關(guān)建議。 本文可能的貢獻在于對我國外匯儲備發(fā)展歷程、現(xiàn)狀、存在問題進行了較為全面的梳理,并從造成我國外匯儲備超常增長的根本原因—中國外部經(jīng)濟失衡入手,進行了全面的、系統(tǒng)的、深入的實證分析,從解決經(jīng)常賬戶順差的角度提出了緩解我國外匯儲備超常增長的建議。 本文的缺陷也較為明顯。在我國外匯儲備結(jié)構(gòu)的分析方面,由于數(shù)據(jù)的局限性,雖然綜合了各方資料,但由于采取了較主觀的推算方式,缺乏較為客觀可信的基礎(chǔ),分析出的結(jié)構(gòu)可能會與我國外匯儲備的真實結(jié)構(gòu)情況有較大偏差,參考性因此較差。而對于外匯儲備中的非美元資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)則因為數(shù)據(jù)較少且比例不大,就沒有進行測算。同時鑒于數(shù)據(jù)的獲取、模型的整合、計算量以及篇幅上的考慮,沒有從實證的角度去研究我國經(jīng)濟外部失衡中的資本項目順差對外匯儲備超常增長的影響,只是在最后政策建議部分有簡要的論述,這是將來有機會可以去完善和深入的地方。另外在解決外匯儲備困境上面,著重研究了調(diào)節(jié)外匯儲備增量的影響因素及措施,而關(guān)于外匯儲備存量投資方向調(diào)節(jié)的措施方面也只花費了少量篇幅進行論述。而從調(diào)存量方面,外匯儲備還有許多可待研究的問題。
[Abstract]:In that open economy, the foreign exchange reserve is an important part of the international reserve assets held by a country, and is a foreign currency asset which is held by the monetary authority and has higher liquidity. The foreign exchange reserves are used to adjust the balance of the balance of payments, to stabilize the exchange rate and to pay off the foreign debt. Therefore, foreign exchange reserve is an important index to reflect the economic and financial strength of a country. A certain level of foreign exchange reserves is not only an important guarantee for the smooth development of foreign economic and trade in our country, but also can effectively resist the impact of external financial risks, keep the exchange rate stable and improve the international reputation of our country. The development of China's foreign exchange reserve is a never-to-one, from a few to many From the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China to the beginning of the reform and opening-up, the annual average holding amount of foreign exchange reserves of our country was $170 million. The reform and opening-up and opening-up in 1979 At the beginning, the foreign exchange reserves have increased greatly from the previous stage, but are still at a relatively low level. In 1994, the foreign exchange management system reform, the official exchange rate of the RMB and the market price of the foreign exchange market and the introduction of a single, managed floating exchange rate based on the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market system. From 1994 onwards, our country is beginning to have a continuous, double-order The balance of the balance of payments account has led to a sustained increase in foreign exchange reserves. In 1996, China relaxed the control of the current project and realized the free exchange under the current project, and at the end of the year realized the first breaking of foreign exchange reserves In February 2006, China's foreign exchange reserves surpassed Japan as the first world in the world. In June of 2009, China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $2 trillion. In March,2011, China's foreign exchange reserves have been on the top of $3 trillion in new foreign exchange reserves. High. The foreign exchange reserves accumulated in a large amount reflect the increase of the international payment ability of our country and the growth of the economic strength. In addition, the high foreign exchange reserves have brought a lot of negative The effect of the face. The extraordinary growth of foreign exchange reserves has brought about an excess of liquidity, increasing inflation. In order to maintain the stability of the exchange rate and the realization of the monetary policy objective, the central bank has carried out frequent open market operations to reverse the liquidity of the foreign exchange account and to pay high On the other hand, on the other hand, the US's quantitative easing policy, the debt ceiling and the down-regulation of the sovereign rating and the weakness of the economic recovery have made the foreign exchange assets of the large amount held by our country face the risk of shrinking, which seriously affects the security of the foreign exchange reserve assets and the increasing and increasing of the value of the foreign exchange reserve assets in our country. In addition, some countries in the euro zone are also in debt crisis and fiscal deficits, making the euro zone face a break-up crisis, and the security of the euro's assets held in my country is, therefore, The threat of foreign exchange reserves the double-edged sword to face the government of our country One of the challenges is how to diversify its foreign exchange reserves, including the reduction of dollar assets, in particular U.S. Treasury bonds, and other monetary assets, equity, resources, Even gold and so on. The more important challenge is how to suppress foreign exchange reserves through structural adjustment These difficulties and adjustments in China's foreign exchange reserves have also made foreign exchange reserves the most recent of economists in recent years It is in this background that, based on the basic economic theory of international economics, this paper uses the theory of foreign exchange reserves, the theory of balance of payments and the academic standard of strict compliance with the theoretical research. Based on the previous research results, the paper studies the foreign exchange reserve in our country from the development course, the present situation, the existing problems and the influence of the foreign exchange reserve in our country, and puts forward the countermeasures and the solution to the foreign exchange reserve in our country. The countermeasure of the extraordinary growth. Chapter, its structure arrangement The following: Chapter 1: Preface. For the background of the subject matter, The significance of the study is discussed in this paper. The problems and effects of foreign exchange reserves, the security of foreign exchange reserves and the difficulties of foreign exchange reserve are also discussed. The reason-related literature was reviewed. Chapter 2: The definition and function of foreign exchange reserve are described in this paper. The relevant theories on the scale of foreign exchange reserves are summarized, and the foreign exchange reserve is evaluated in the following. The present situation of scale provides a certain theoretical foundation. Chapter 3: The basic status of China's foreign exchange reserves. The overall size of the current foreign exchange reserves is based on data from the Chinese authorities, the United States Treasury International Capital System (TIC), the IMF's official foreign exchange reserve currency structure database (COFER), and the calculation of China's foreign exchange reserves. Currency structure and structure of United States dollar assets In order to further understand the status of foreign exchange reserves. Chapter 4: The problems and effects of the foreign exchange reserve in China. In the second chapter, the representative theory of the degree of degree of the foreign exchange reserve is introduced, though both There are various defects, but there is still some reference. China's foreign exchange reserves are no matter what kind of scale it is used In the third chapter, it can also be seen that there is an excessive amount of foreign exchange reserves The problems of the assets of dollar assets and fixed income are concentrated in China. The large scale of foreign exchange reserves and the unreasonable structure of our country's foreign exchange reserves are brought to our country. The effects of the economy are described in detail in this section. Chapter 5 This chapter points out that the external economic imbalance of our country is the main cause of the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in our country For the reason, the imbalance of the current project is the main position. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in our country The reason for this is to start with the balance of the current account of the study. Under the open economic conditions, The external economic imbalance of a country is not likely to be a unilateral cause. This paper, starting with the aspects of the United States and our country, discusses the factors that affect the current account balance of our country, and on the basis of the real availability of the data, we have chosen the difference of fiscal revenue and expenditure, the level of interest rate, the people The exchange rate of the currency against the dollar and the burden of the population is used as an explanatory variable, and the import and export difference is used to replace the regular project. The results of the analysis confirm that the expansion of government expenditure and the reduction of interest rate are beneficial to the decrease of the current account surplus and the population The reduction of the dependency ratio is a factor in the growth of the current account surplus, and the appreciation of the RMB for the current account surplus The reduction does not have a clear impact. Chapter 6: Policy recommendations. Based on the foregoing theoretical analysis and the empirical results, the current account surplus and the capital project are reduced from the reduced current account, respectively. The angle of surplus has put forward the suggestion to alleviate the extraordinary growth of foreign exchange reserve. The paper puts forward some suggestions on the adjustment of the existing structure of foreign exchange reserves. The possible contribution of this paper is to make a more comprehensive analysis of the development of foreign exchange reserves in China, the present situation, the existing problems, and the root cause of the abnormal growth of foreign exchange reserves in China and the external economy of China. Starting with the imbalance, a comprehensive, systematic and in-depth empirical analysis is carried out, from which to solve the current account The angle of the surplus has put forward the relief of me In the analysis of China's foreign exchange reserve structure, because of the limitation of the data, because of the limitation of the data, because of the limitation of the data, the data of all the parties are integrated, but because of the subjective calculation method, the lack of the more objective and credible basis, the analysis shows that The structure may be with me The real structure of the country's foreign exchange reserves has a large deviation, and the reference is therefore poor. The meta-asset structure has not been calculated because the data is small and the proportion is small. At the same time, in view of the acquisition of the data, the integration of the model, the calculation quantity and the consideration of the space, there is no empirical study to study the surplus of the capital account in the external imbalances of our country to the foreign exchange reserves The effect of extraordinary growth is only in the final policy recommendations This is a brief discussion, which is a place to be perfected and in-depth in the future. In addition to solving the difficulties of foreign exchange reserves, the factors and measures to adjust the increment of foreign exchange reserve are emphatically studied, and on the deposit of foreign exchange reserves Only a small amount of space is spent on measures to regulate the amount of investment
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6

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