國(guó)際貨幣體系變革背景下人民幣國(guó)際化研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-05-20 13:53
【摘要】：歷史事實(shí)表明,國(guó)際貨幣體系必須適應(yīng)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)政治權(quán)力格局并隨之演變。重大經(jīng)濟(jì)或政治事件的發(fā)生會(huì)促使國(guó)際貨幣體系的變革。2007年源于美國(guó)的次貸危機(jī)最終演變成為席卷全球的金融危機(jī)充分暴露了當(dāng)前以美元為主導(dǎo)的國(guó)際貨幣體系的缺陷,美國(guó)憑借美元的主導(dǎo)地位向其他國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和危機(jī)成本,美國(guó)的貨幣政策通常是在不考慮全球流動(dòng)性需求的情況下得到實(shí)施,成為全球金融不穩(wěn)定的一個(gè)潛在誘因。此次金融危機(jī)使我們?cè)俅嗡妓骱吞接懯裁礃拥膰?guó)際貨幣體系才能確保全球金融穩(wěn)定并促進(jìn)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。此次金融危機(jī)動(dòng)搖了美元的國(guó)際地位以及世界對(duì)美元的信心,當(dāng)前國(guó)際貨幣體系中美元獨(dú)大的現(xiàn)狀已越來(lái)越不符合世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展要求,不能反映世界各國(guó)政治經(jīng)濟(jì)地位的變化,世界各國(guó)對(duì)改革當(dāng)前不公平、不合理的國(guó)際貨幣體系的呼聲高漲,國(guó)際貨幣體系要求新的國(guó)際貨幣出現(xiàn)以建立一個(gè)公正、公平的多元化國(guó)際貨幣體系。 歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)告訴我們,只要世界上出現(xiàn)超級(jí)大國(guó),它的貨幣就要在國(guó)際貨幣體系里發(fā)揮中心作用,19世紀(jì)的英鎊和20世紀(jì)的美元,都是各國(guó)時(shí)代的國(guó)際貨幣體系的中心貨幣。2010年中國(guó)超越日本成為全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,但人民幣并未取得與之相稱的國(guó)際地位。過(guò)去100多年以來(lái),全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的本幣并非一種國(guó)際性貨幣的狀況實(shí)屬罕見(jiàn)。對(duì)中國(guó)這樣的大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體而言,在與其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體開(kāi)展跨境貿(mào)易與投資時(shí),還不得不承擔(dān)第三國(guó)貨幣匯率波動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),這無(wú)疑是非常尷尬的。因此,在中國(guó)成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體、本次金融危機(jī)引發(fā)國(guó)際貨幣體系變革以及世界呼吁新的國(guó)際貨幣出現(xiàn)的背景下,中國(guó)應(yīng)充分利用這一有利的國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際形勢(shì),根據(jù)我國(guó)的實(shí)際國(guó)情和實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,探索出一條最佳的人民幣國(guó)際化路徑,穩(wěn)步、有序、可控地實(shí)現(xiàn)人民幣國(guó)際化。 本文首先闡述了國(guó)際貨幣體系的歷史變革背景,國(guó)際貨幣體系演變緩慢,推測(cè)它的長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展趨勢(shì)必須基于過(guò)去的歷史,從歷史視角審視國(guó)際貨幣體系的變革背景,我們就能發(fā)現(xiàn)其演變的規(guī)律,并據(jù)此展望它的未來(lái)。重點(diǎn)闡述了國(guó)際貨幣體系的歷史變革背景、當(dāng)前國(guó)際貨幣體系的現(xiàn)狀和缺點(diǎn)以及金融危機(jī)動(dòng)搖當(dāng)前的國(guó)際貨幣體系,探討為什么主要國(guó)際貨幣不能解決當(dāng)前國(guó)際貨幣體系的這些問(wèn)題,以及人民幣國(guó)際化能否解決這些問(wèn)題；接著回顧了主要貨幣英鎊、美元、歐元和日元的國(guó)際化進(jìn)程。深刻了解主要貨幣國(guó)際化的歷程,將對(duì)人民幣的國(guó)際化有重要的借鑒意義,這樣我們就可以站在前人的肩膀上,從而少走彎路；然后對(duì)國(guó)際貨幣體系變革背景下人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)行了深入的分析。重點(diǎn)闡述了人民幣國(guó)際化的內(nèi)涵和角色定位,人民幣國(guó)際化國(guó)內(nèi)需求和國(guó)際需求的變化,以及人民幣國(guó)際化的成本和收益分析。定量分析人民幣國(guó)際化可計(jì)量的鑄幣稅收益,選取中國(guó)周邊國(guó)家為樣本,估算人民幣在周邊國(guó)家和地區(qū)國(guó)際化后的鑄幣稅收益。接下來(lái)深入分析了人民幣國(guó)際化的現(xiàn)狀。從三個(gè)方面來(lái)考察人民幣國(guó)際化的進(jìn)展?fàn)顩r,即從人民幣在國(guó)際貿(mào)易、全球外匯市場(chǎng)和各國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備的使用狀況來(lái)考察當(dāng)前人民幣國(guó)際化的現(xiàn)狀。最后在綜合前幾章基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)人民幣國(guó)際化的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略進(jìn)行展望。 本文的結(jié)論是：在中國(guó)成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體、本次金融危機(jī)引發(fā)國(guó)際貨幣體系變革以及世界呼吁新的國(guó)際貨幣出現(xiàn)的背景下,中國(guó)應(yīng)充分利用這一有利的國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際形勢(shì),人民幣國(guó)際化應(yīng)以市場(chǎng)選擇為主,政府推動(dòng)為輔,促進(jìn)人民幣國(guó)際化要避免超越我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)水平承受能力,絕不能為獲得貨幣國(guó)際化利益而盲目推進(jìn)人民幣國(guó)際化,這只會(huì)使自己陷入巨大的逆轉(zhuǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。要實(shí)現(xiàn)人民幣國(guó)際化,最主要的是要不斷增強(qiáng)我國(guó)的綜合國(guó)力,人民幣最終能否發(fā)展成為國(guó)際貨幣,取決于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)能否在未來(lái)繼續(xù)維持較高的增長(zhǎng)。因此,現(xiàn)階段要轉(zhuǎn)變我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)發(fā)展方式以確保經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),不斷增強(qiáng)我國(guó)的綜合國(guó)力。同時(shí),我國(guó)應(yīng)繼續(xù)深化和完善金融市場(chǎng)改革,積極參與國(guó)際金融合作,提高金融監(jiān)管水平,增強(qiáng)金融創(chuàng)新能力,為穩(wěn)步實(shí)現(xiàn)人民幣國(guó)際化提供堅(jiān)實(shí)的后盾。我們有充分的理由相信,人民幣國(guó)際化是我國(guó)綜合國(guó)力不斷增強(qiáng)以及國(guó)內(nèi)金融市場(chǎng)不斷完善的必然結(jié)果。
[Abstract]:The historical facts show that the international monetary system must adapt to the world economic and political power pattern and then evolve. The emergence of a major economic or political event would lead to a change in the international monetary system. In 2007, the United States-based sub-prime crisis, which eventually evolved into a global financial crisis, fully exposed the current weakness of the current dollar-led international monetary system, The U.S. 'dominance of the United States dollar has shifted the risk and crisis costs to other countries, and monetary policy in the United States is often implemented without regard to global liquidity needs and is a potential incentive for global financial instability. The financial crisis has led us to rethink and explore what kind of international monetary system can ensure global financial stability and to promote world economic development. The financial crisis has shaken the international status of the United States dollar and the world's confidence in the United States dollar. The current situation of the current international monetary system is increasingly inconsistent with the requirements of the world economic development and cannot reflect the change of the political and economic status of all the countries of the world. The international monetary system called for a new international currency to establish a fair and equitable international monetary system. The historical experience tells us that as long as the world has a superpower, its currency will play a central role in the international monetary system, the pound of the 19th century and the beauty of the 20th century The yuan is the central currency of the international monetary system of all times. In 2010, China surpassed Japan as the world's second-largest economy, but the RMB has not made the international ground commensurate with it. In the past 100 years, the local currency of the world's second-largest economy is not an international currency. For large-scale economies such as China, in the case of cross-border trade and investment with other economies, there is no doubt that the risk of a third-country currency exchange rate fluctuation, which is no doubt very embarrassing Therefore, in the context of China becoming the world's second-largest economy, the financial crisis has led to the change of the international monetary system and the background of the world's call for the emergence of new international currencies, China should make full use of this favorable domestic and international shape On the basis of the actual situation of our country and the state of the economic development of the solid, we have explored the best international path of the RMB, steadily, orderly and controllable to realize the RMB international. This paper first expounds the background of the historical transformation of the international monetary system and the slow evolution of the international monetary system. It is assumed that the long-term development trend of the international monetary system must be based on the past history, and we can find the evolution of the international monetary system from the historical perspective. The law of the law and the prospect of it accordingly The future of the international monetary system, the current situation and the shortcomings of the current international monetary system, and the current international monetary system of the financial crisis, discusses the reason why the main international monetary system cannot solve the current international monetary system Some questions, and whether the internationalisation of the renminbi can solve these problems, followed by a review of the international dollar, the dollar, the euro and the yen's international The process of the internationalization of the main currency will be of great reference to the internationalization of the RMB, so that we can stand on the shoulders of our predecessors, so as to reduce the curve, and then make an in-depth analysis of the RMB internationalization in the context of the change of the international monetary system. The analysis of the connotation and role of the RMB internationalization, the domestic demand of the RMB internationalization and the change of the international demand, and the cost and the receipt of the internationalization of the RMB. Benefit analysis. Quantitative analysis of the income of the internationally-measurable cast-in-currency tax of the RMB, select China's neighboring countries as a sample, and estimate the currency of the RMB in the surrounding countries and the region The income of the tax is followed by an in-depth analysis of the internationalization of the The current situation of RMB internationalization is examined from three aspects, namely, the current RMB internationalization is examined from the use of RMB in international trade, global foreign exchange market and foreign exchange reserve At last, on the basis of the comprehensive first few chapters, the development strategy of RMB internationalization The conclusion is that, in the context of China becoming the world's second-largest economy, the financial crisis has led to the change of the international monetary system and the background of the world's call for the emergence of new international currencies, China should make full use of this favorable domestic In the international situation, the internationalization of RMB should be the main market choice, and the government can promote the RMB internationalization to avoid exceeding the bearing capacity of our country's economic level, and must not push the RMB internationalization blindly to obtain the international interest of the currency, which only makes it huge. To realize the internationalization of the RMB, the most important is to strengthen the overall national strength of our country, and whether the RMB will eventually develop into an international currency depends on whether the Chinese economy can continue to maintain in the future Therefore, at the present stage, it is necessary to change the way of the economic growth and development of our country so as to ensure the sustainable growth of the economy and to strengthen our country continuously. At the same time, our country should continue to deepen and improve the financial market reform, actively participate in international financial cooperation, improve the level of financial supervision and enhance the financial innovation ability, and provide for the steady realization of the internationalization of the RMB We have sufficient reason to believe that the internationalization of RMB is the continuous enhancement of the comprehensive national strength of China and the improvement of the domestic financial market
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6
本文編號(hào)：2481691
[Abstract]:The historical facts show that the international monetary system must adapt to the world economic and political power pattern and then evolve. The emergence of a major economic or political event would lead to a change in the international monetary system. In 2007, the United States-based sub-prime crisis, which eventually evolved into a global financial crisis, fully exposed the current weakness of the current dollar-led international monetary system, The U.S. 'dominance of the United States dollar has shifted the risk and crisis costs to other countries, and monetary policy in the United States is often implemented without regard to global liquidity needs and is a potential incentive for global financial instability. The financial crisis has led us to rethink and explore what kind of international monetary system can ensure global financial stability and to promote world economic development. The financial crisis has shaken the international status of the United States dollar and the world's confidence in the United States dollar. The current situation of the current international monetary system is increasingly inconsistent with the requirements of the world economic development and cannot reflect the change of the political and economic status of all the countries of the world. The international monetary system called for a new international currency to establish a fair and equitable international monetary system. The historical experience tells us that as long as the world has a superpower, its currency will play a central role in the international monetary system, the pound of the 19th century and the beauty of the 20th century The yuan is the central currency of the international monetary system of all times. In 2010, China surpassed Japan as the world's second-largest economy, but the RMB has not made the international ground commensurate with it. In the past 100 years, the local currency of the world's second-largest economy is not an international currency. For large-scale economies such as China, in the case of cross-border trade and investment with other economies, there is no doubt that the risk of a third-country currency exchange rate fluctuation, which is no doubt very embarrassing Therefore, in the context of China becoming the world's second-largest economy, the financial crisis has led to the change of the international monetary system and the background of the world's call for the emergence of new international currencies, China should make full use of this favorable domestic and international shape On the basis of the actual situation of our country and the state of the economic development of the solid, we have explored the best international path of the RMB, steadily, orderly and controllable to realize the RMB international. This paper first expounds the background of the historical transformation of the international monetary system and the slow evolution of the international monetary system. It is assumed that the long-term development trend of the international monetary system must be based on the past history, and we can find the evolution of the international monetary system from the historical perspective. The law of the law and the prospect of it accordingly The future of the international monetary system, the current situation and the shortcomings of the current international monetary system, and the current international monetary system of the financial crisis, discusses the reason why the main international monetary system cannot solve the current international monetary system Some questions, and whether the internationalisation of the renminbi can solve these problems, followed by a review of the international dollar, the dollar, the euro and the yen's international The process of the internationalization of the main currency will be of great reference to the internationalization of the RMB, so that we can stand on the shoulders of our predecessors, so as to reduce the curve, and then make an in-depth analysis of the RMB internationalization in the context of the change of the international monetary system. The analysis of the connotation and role of the RMB internationalization, the domestic demand of the RMB internationalization and the change of the international demand, and the cost and the receipt of the internationalization of the RMB. Benefit analysis. Quantitative analysis of the income of the internationally-measurable cast-in-currency tax of the RMB, select China's neighboring countries as a sample, and estimate the currency of the RMB in the surrounding countries and the region The income of the tax is followed by an in-depth analysis of the internationalization of the The current situation of RMB internationalization is examined from three aspects, namely, the current RMB internationalization is examined from the use of RMB in international trade, global foreign exchange market and foreign exchange reserve At last, on the basis of the comprehensive first few chapters, the development strategy of RMB internationalization The conclusion is that, in the context of China becoming the world's second-largest economy, the financial crisis has led to the change of the international monetary system and the background of the world's call for the emergence of new international currencies, China should make full use of this favorable domestic In the international situation, the internationalization of RMB should be the main market choice, and the government can promote the RMB internationalization to avoid exceeding the bearing capacity of our country's economic level, and must not push the RMB internationalization blindly to obtain the international interest of the currency, which only makes it huge. To realize the internationalization of the RMB, the most important is to strengthen the overall national strength of our country, and whether the RMB will eventually develop into an international currency depends on whether the Chinese economy can continue to maintain in the future Therefore, at the present stage, it is necessary to change the way of the economic growth and development of our country so as to ensure the sustainable growth of the economy and to strengthen our country continuously. At the same time, our country should continue to deepen and improve the financial market reform, actively participate in international financial cooperation, improve the level of financial supervision and enhance the financial innovation ability, and provide for the steady realization of the internationalization of the RMB We have sufficient reason to believe that the internationalization of RMB is the continuous enhancement of the comprehensive national strength of China and the improvement of the domestic financial market
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6
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