外匯占款沖銷與貨幣供應(yīng)區(qū)域不平衡
發(fā)布時間：2019-05-16 03:30
【摘要】：2005年我國匯率制度改革以來，人民幣名義匯率持續(xù)升值，但人民幣的升值并沒有對我國國際收支順差過大起到緩解作用，反而國際收支順差呈現(xiàn)進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大趨勢。面對不斷攀升的外匯儲備，央行采用了各種沖銷手段來回收外匯占款投放的過量基礎(chǔ)貨幣，但通貨膨脹壓力卻越來越大，特別是房地產(chǎn)價格出現(xiàn)飆升。這一現(xiàn)狀促使作者去研究我國匯率制度、國際收支、貨幣政策與我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系，希望通過對其內(nèi)在運(yùn)行機(jī)制的分析，探析解決我國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策及經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中存在問題的方法，從而推動我國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)快速增長。 本文采用協(xié)整分析、向量誤差糾正模型（VECM）、脈沖響應(yīng)分析等方法對我國基礎(chǔ)貨幣的內(nèi)生性進(jìn)行了計量檢驗，并對基礎(chǔ)貨幣的回流機(jī)制進(jìn)行了理論分析。分析檢驗結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，2001年之后，凈國外資產(chǎn)代替凈國內(nèi)信貸成為影響我國基礎(chǔ)貨幣投放的主要因素，央行票據(jù)主要起到回籠基礎(chǔ)貨幣的作用；外匯渠道發(fā)行貨幣的被動性，及沖銷手段的各種制約造成我國基礎(chǔ)貨幣不可控，基礎(chǔ)貨幣內(nèi)生性特征明顯。 本文建立了區(qū)域貨幣市場模型，對我國區(qū)域貨幣市場均衡進(jìn)行了靜態(tài)分析，在此基礎(chǔ)上，并運(yùn)用比較分析法對東部、中部和西部的貨幣供應(yīng)和貨幣需求進(jìn)行了比較分析，分析結(jié)果表明：我國貨幣供應(yīng)區(qū)域不平衡，東部地區(qū)的各項存貸款及現(xiàn)金投放超出了其經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的需要，而中西部地區(qū)的各項存貸款及現(xiàn)金投放不能滿足其經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的需要。 本文在開放經(jīng)濟(jì)盯住匯率制度下，建立了一個外貿(mào)開放度不同的兩區(qū)域模型，對外匯市場沖銷干預(yù)進(jìn)行了動態(tài)理論分析。分析結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，盯住匯率制度下的外匯市場干預(yù)使得基礎(chǔ)貨幣發(fā)行內(nèi)生于國際收支，區(qū)域間外貿(mào)開放度的不同，會導(dǎo)致區(qū)域之間基礎(chǔ)貨幣投放的不平衡。我國區(qū)域間外貿(mào)開放度存在巨大差異，并不適用全國統(tǒng)一的總量性沖銷政策，“一刀切”的沖銷政策不僅不能起到基礎(chǔ)貨幣的有效回流，而且進(jìn)一步緊縮了原本資金匱乏的中部和西部資金，使得東部和中西部地區(qū)的貨幣供應(yīng)嚴(yán)重不平衡。 本文運(yùn)用貨幣主義分析法，在我國區(qū)域貨幣供應(yīng)不平衡研究結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上，對我國人民幣匯率、國際收支順差、外匯儲備、貨幣供應(yīng)、貨幣需求、內(nèi)需不足和房地產(chǎn)泡沫之間的聯(lián)系進(jìn)行了研究分析。研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，2002年之后，人民幣匯率存在一定程度上的低估，促使經(jīng)常項目順差擴(kuò)大，在人民幣升值預(yù)期下，國際資本的流入加大了我國資本項目順差。過分追求匯率穩(wěn)定，使得外匯儲備的增長隨著國際收支順差的不斷擴(kuò)大而快速增長，內(nèi)生于國際收支的貨幣發(fā)行機(jī)制致使貨幣投放過多，誘發(fā)了通貨膨脹風(fēng)險；為抑制通貨膨脹壓力，央行對外匯占款進(jìn)行了積極沖銷操作，凈國外資產(chǎn)不斷上升，凈國內(nèi)資產(chǎn)不斷下降，貨幣供應(yīng)的區(qū)域不平衡不斷加深；凈國內(nèi)資產(chǎn)的下降致使中部和西部地區(qū)的貨幣需求得不到滿足，從而導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)需求和投資需求不足；凈國外資產(chǎn)的不斷積累，使得東部沿海地區(qū)流動性嚴(yán)重過剩，最終形成投機(jī)資本，流入房地產(chǎn)市場造成房地產(chǎn)泡沫的形成。內(nèi)需的不足使得國內(nèi)相對過剩的產(chǎn)能需要依賴國外市場來消化，這進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大了國際收支順差，外匯儲備進(jìn)一步增長，沖銷壓力越來越大，貨幣供應(yīng)不平衡程度逐步加深，這個過程形成一個惡性循環(huán)。 本文建議通過完善我國匯率形成機(jī)制，運(yùn)用相關(guān)外貿(mào)政策擴(kuò)大進(jìn)口。制定相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需，促進(jìn)東部、中部和西部經(jīng)濟(jì)的平衡發(fā)展，逐漸降低我國外部不平衡。根據(jù)不同區(qū)域的具體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展特征制定相應(yīng)的區(qū)域化貨幣政策，解決貨幣供應(yīng)的區(qū)域不平衡問題，，促進(jìn)中西部地區(qū)的快速發(fā)展，是解決我國內(nèi)需不足和外部不平衡的根本所在。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of our country's exchange rate system in 2005, the nominal exchange rate of the RMB has continued to appreciate, but the appreciation of the RMB has not helped to relieve the surplus of the balance of payments in our country, but the balance of the balance of payments has further expanded. In the face of the rising foreign exchange reserves, the central bank has used a variety of write-off measures to recover the excess base currency of foreign exchange accounts, but the pressure on inflation is increasing, especially in the case of a surge in real estate prices. The present situation has led the author to study the internal relationship between our country's exchange rate system, the balance of payments, the monetary policy and the economic development of our country. Thus promoting the sustained and rapid growth of our country's economy. In this paper, co-integration analysis, vector error correction model (VECM) and impulse response analysis are used to measure the internal character of the basic currency in China. The analysis and test results show that after 2001, the net foreign assets instead of the net domestic credit have become the main factors that affect the basic money release of our country, the central bank note mainly plays the role of the back-cage base currency, and the foreign exchange channel issue the currency's passivity. The various restriction of the property and the reverse means causes the base currency of our country to be not controllable, and the internal character of the base currency is clear. In this paper, the regional monetary market model is established, and the static analysis of the regional monetary market equilibrium is carried out. On the basis of this, the comparative analysis of the monetary supply and the monetary demand in the east, the middle and the west is carried out by using the comparative analysis method. The results show that the supply region of China is not balanced, and the deposits and cash in the eastern region are out of the need of its economic development, and the deposits and cash in the central and western regions can not meet its economic development. In this paper, a two-region model of foreign trade open degree is set up under the system of the open economy and the exchange rate, and the reverse intervention of the foreign exchange market is made. The result of the analysis shows that the intervention of the foreign exchange market under the system of exchange rate can lead to the difference in the balance of payments and the open degree of foreign trade in the base currency, which can lead to the basic exchange of money between the regions There is a big difference in the open degree of foreign trade in our country, and it is not applicable to the national unified total amount reversal policy. The one-size-fits-one reverse policy can not only serve as the effective return of the base currency, but also tighten the middle part of the original capital shortage. and western funds, so that the supply of money in the east and the central and western regions The paper, on the basis of the conclusion of the non-equilibrium research of the regional monetary supply in our country, applies the monetarism analysis method to the relationship between the RMB exchange rate, the balance of the balance of payments, the foreign exchange reserves, the supply of money, the demand of money, the shortage of domestic demand and the real estate bubble. The result of the study found that, after 2002, the exchange rate of the RMB has been underestimated to some extent, and the current surplus of the current project is expanded, and the inflow of international capital has increased by the expectation of the appreciation of the RMB. The surplus of the country's capital account. The excessive pursuit of the exchange rate is stable, so that the growth of the foreign exchange reserves is growing rapidly with the expansion of the balance of the balance of payments, and the currency issuance mechanism, which is born in the balance of payments, causes the currency to be overthrown and the risk of inflation is induced; The central bank has made a positive write-off on the foreign exchange account, the net foreign assets are rising, the net domestic assets are declining, the regional imbalance of the supply of money is deepening, and the decline of the net domestic assets has led to the central and western currencies The demand is not met, resulting in a shortage of consumer demand and investment demand; the accumulation of net foreign assets, resulting in a serious excess of liquidity in the eastern coastal areas, eventually forming speculative capital and flowing into the real estate market The shortage of domestic demand is that the relative surplus capacity of the country needs to rely on the foreign market to digest, which further increases the balance of the balance of payments, the further growth of the foreign exchange reserves, the increasing reverse pressure and the gradual deepening of the imbalance of the supply of money, which is the process To form a vicious circle, this paper proposes to improve our country's exchange rate forming mechanism and use the phase To expand the import of foreign trade policies, to formulate relevant economic policies to expand domestic demand, to promote the balanced development of the east, central and western economies, and to gradually according to the specific economic development characteristics of different regions, the corresponding regional monetary policy is established, the regional imbalance of the money supply is solved, the rapid development of the central and western regions is promoted,
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南開大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F822.2
本文編號：2477982
[Abstract]:Since the reform of our country's exchange rate system in 2005, the nominal exchange rate of the RMB has continued to appreciate, but the appreciation of the RMB has not helped to relieve the surplus of the balance of payments in our country, but the balance of the balance of payments has further expanded. In the face of the rising foreign exchange reserves, the central bank has used a variety of write-off measures to recover the excess base currency of foreign exchange accounts, but the pressure on inflation is increasing, especially in the case of a surge in real estate prices. The present situation has led the author to study the internal relationship between our country's exchange rate system, the balance of payments, the monetary policy and the economic development of our country. Thus promoting the sustained and rapid growth of our country's economy. In this paper, co-integration analysis, vector error correction model (VECM) and impulse response analysis are used to measure the internal character of the basic currency in China. The analysis and test results show that after 2001, the net foreign assets instead of the net domestic credit have become the main factors that affect the basic money release of our country, the central bank note mainly plays the role of the back-cage base currency, and the foreign exchange channel issue the currency's passivity. The various restriction of the property and the reverse means causes the base currency of our country to be not controllable, and the internal character of the base currency is clear. In this paper, the regional monetary market model is established, and the static analysis of the regional monetary market equilibrium is carried out. On the basis of this, the comparative analysis of the monetary supply and the monetary demand in the east, the middle and the west is carried out by using the comparative analysis method. The results show that the supply region of China is not balanced, and the deposits and cash in the eastern region are out of the need of its economic development, and the deposits and cash in the central and western regions can not meet its economic development. In this paper, a two-region model of foreign trade open degree is set up under the system of the open economy and the exchange rate, and the reverse intervention of the foreign exchange market is made. The result of the analysis shows that the intervention of the foreign exchange market under the system of exchange rate can lead to the difference in the balance of payments and the open degree of foreign trade in the base currency, which can lead to the basic exchange of money between the regions There is a big difference in the open degree of foreign trade in our country, and it is not applicable to the national unified total amount reversal policy. The one-size-fits-one reverse policy can not only serve as the effective return of the base currency, but also tighten the middle part of the original capital shortage. and western funds, so that the supply of money in the east and the central and western regions The paper, on the basis of the conclusion of the non-equilibrium research of the regional monetary supply in our country, applies the monetarism analysis method to the relationship between the RMB exchange rate, the balance of the balance of payments, the foreign exchange reserves, the supply of money, the demand of money, the shortage of domestic demand and the real estate bubble. The result of the study found that, after 2002, the exchange rate of the RMB has been underestimated to some extent, and the current surplus of the current project is expanded, and the inflow of international capital has increased by the expectation of the appreciation of the RMB. The surplus of the country's capital account. The excessive pursuit of the exchange rate is stable, so that the growth of the foreign exchange reserves is growing rapidly with the expansion of the balance of the balance of payments, and the currency issuance mechanism, which is born in the balance of payments, causes the currency to be overthrown and the risk of inflation is induced; The central bank has made a positive write-off on the foreign exchange account, the net foreign assets are rising, the net domestic assets are declining, the regional imbalance of the supply of money is deepening, and the decline of the net domestic assets has led to the central and western currencies The demand is not met, resulting in a shortage of consumer demand and investment demand; the accumulation of net foreign assets, resulting in a serious excess of liquidity in the eastern coastal areas, eventually forming speculative capital and flowing into the real estate market The shortage of domestic demand is that the relative surplus capacity of the country needs to rely on the foreign market to digest, which further increases the balance of the balance of payments, the further growth of the foreign exchange reserves, the increasing reverse pressure and the gradual deepening of the imbalance of the supply of money, which is the process To form a vicious circle, this paper proposes to improve our country's exchange rate forming mechanism and use the phase To expand the import of foreign trade policies, to formulate relevant economic policies to expand domestic demand, to promote the balanced development of the east, central and western economies, and to gradually according to the specific economic development characteristics of different regions, the corresponding regional monetary policy is established, the regional imbalance of the money supply is solved, the rapid development of the central and western regions is promoted,
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南開大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F822.2
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