【摘要】：2001年隨著我國加入世界貿(mào)易組織,我國對外貿(mào)易呈現(xiàn)了快速增長勢頭。作為推動(dòng)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的三駕馬車之一,2001-2010年進(jìn)口和出口均復(fù)合增長率分別達(dá)到21.40%和21.86%；同時(shí)隨著我國對外貿(mào)易的快速發(fā)展,我國對對外貿(mào)易的依存度也隨之加強(qiáng),2010年我國對外貿(mào)易依存度為49.15%。然而,對外貿(mào)易的快速發(fā)展也給我國經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來了較大的不確定性。擴(kuò)大的國際貿(mào)易順差加劇了我國的貿(mào)易摩擦,也給人民幣帶來了巨大的升值壓力。2005年匯改以來,人民幣開始進(jìn)入升值通道,到2010年為止已經(jīng)累計(jì)升值25.58%,特別是2008年的金融危機(jī)導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)體受到重創(chuàng),需求疲軟,同時(shí)也導(dǎo)致了我國出口的急劇下滑。在這樣的背景下研究匯率變動(dòng)對于我國出口行業(yè)的影響有著十分重要的意義。本文將選取紡織、家電和計(jì)算機(jī)工業(yè)上累計(jì)遞進(jìn)的三個(gè)行業(yè)作為代表,研究匯率變動(dòng)對于我國出口行業(yè)產(chǎn)生的影響,同時(shí)提出相關(guān)的政策建議。 本文選取2000-2009年的紡織、家電和計(jì)算機(jī)產(chǎn)品出口年度數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,從傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)典的國際收支理論出發(fā)并運(yùn)用實(shí)證方法對人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對于三個(gè)行業(yè)出口的影響進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。并對這三個(gè)行業(yè)出口造成影響的差異性進(jìn)行了比較分析,以揭示匯率變動(dòng)對于我國勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)和知識(shí)與技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的不同影響,并對我國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展作出相應(yīng)的建議。
[Abstract]:With China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China's foreign trade has shown a rapid growth momentum. As one of the troika to promote China's economic development, the compound growth rate of imports and exports in 2001-2010 reached 21.40% and 21.86% respectively. At the same time, with the rapid development of China's foreign trade, the degree of dependence on foreign trade is strengthened. In 2010, the dependence degree of China's foreign trade is 49.15%. However, the rapid development of foreign trade also brings greater uncertainty to our economy. The enlarged international trade surplus has exacerbated China's trade frictions and brought enormous pressure for the RMB to appreciate. Since the exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB has begun to enter the appreciation channel, and by 2010 it has appreciated by 25.58%. In particular, the 2008 financial crisis caused severe damage to the global economy, weak demand, but also led to a sharp decline in our exports. In this context, it is of great significance to study the influence of exchange rate change on our export industry. This paper will select three industries in textile, household appliances and computer industry as the representative to study the impact of exchange rate change on the export industry of our country, and put forward some relevant policy suggestions at the same time. This paper selects the annual export data of textile, household appliances and computer products from 2000 to 2009 as a sample. Based on the classical balance of payments theory and the empirical method, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the effect of RMB exchange rate change on the export of three industries. In order to reveal the different effects of exchange rate changes on labor-intensive industries and knowledge-and-technology-intensive industries in China, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the differences in the impact of these three industries on exports. And to our country's industrial structure development to make the corresponding suggestion.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F426.61;F426.81

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