【摘要】：金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來(lái),美國(guó)采取了一系列的量化寬松貨幣政策(quantitative easing monetary policy簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)(QE))以刺激美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。受全球經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷、美國(guó)量化寬松貨幣政策的影響,我國(guó)也實(shí)施了適度寬松的貨幣政策。隨著美國(guó)QE政策的退出,我國(guó)貨幣政策可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)從緊的壓力。因此,在中美兩國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展密切的背景下,研究美國(guó)QE政策對(duì)中國(guó)貨幣政策的影響以及傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文在蒙代爾—弗萊明模型的基礎(chǔ)上,加入了預(yù)期因素,研究了美國(guó)QE政策實(shí)施和退出對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策產(chǎn)生的影響,分析了貿(mào)易渠道和資本渠道在美國(guó)QE政策外溢效應(yīng)中的作用。在此基礎(chǔ)上本文展開(kāi)了實(shí)證分析,利用美國(guó)工業(yè)增加值、美國(guó)消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)、美國(guó)廣義貨幣供給量、中國(guó)廣義貨幣供給量、中國(guó)凈出口額和中國(guó)短期資本流入建立SVAR模型,分析美國(guó)QE政策通過(guò)不同的渠道對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策的影響。研究結(jié)果表明,美國(guó)QE政策在預(yù)期效應(yīng)的影響下通過(guò)貿(mào)易渠道、資本渠道給我國(guó)貨幣政策的操作帶來(lái)不確定的因素,產(chǎn)生一定的負(fù)面影響。最后,根據(jù)上述研究,針對(duì)性地提出相關(guān)建議,指出我國(guó)應(yīng)加強(qiáng)預(yù)期管理、轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式、加大資本流動(dòng)監(jiān)管、加快人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制改革、穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)金融改革、國(guó)際貨幣體系改革。
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the United States has adopted a series of quantitative easing monetary policy, called (QE), to stimulate the U.S. economy. Under the influence of global economic downturn and quantitative easing monetary policy, China has also implemented moderately loose monetary policy. With the withdrawal of QE policy, China's monetary policy may appear tight pressure. Therefore, in the context of the close economic development of China and the United States, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the influence of American QE policy on China's monetary policy and its transmission mechanism. Based on the Mondal-Fleming model, this paper introduces the expected factors to study the impact of the implementation and withdrawal of the US QE policy on China's monetary policy. This paper analyzes the role of trade channels and capital channels in the spillover effect of American QE policy. On the basis of this, this paper makes an empirical analysis, using the industrial added value of the United States, the United States Consumer Price Index, the broad money supply of the United States, the net exports of China and the short-term capital inflow of China to establish the SVAR model. This paper analyzes the influence of American QE policy on China's monetary policy through different channels. The results show that under the influence of expected effect, the QE policy of the United States brings uncertain factors to the operation of our monetary policy through trade channels and capital channels, which has a certain negative impact. Finally, according to the above research, the paper puts forward relevant suggestions, pointing out that China should strengthen the expected management, change the mode of economic development, strengthen the supervision of capital flow, accelerate the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and steadily promote the financial reform. Reform of the international monetary system
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘇州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F827.12;F822.0

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本文編號(hào)：2429325