【摘要】：資本的積累和投入對一國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展至關(guān)重要，所以中國從20世紀(jì)70年代末起實施“改革開放”政策，，大力吸引外資，有效地提高了生產(chǎn)效率，使得中國經(jīng)濟(jì)長期高速增長。但是，在政府通過各種手段大量吸引外資的同時，卻有規(guī)模相當(dāng)規(guī)模的資本逃過外匯管理部門的監(jiān)管流向國外，對中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展造成不利影響。 為了對中國的資本外逃規(guī)模進(jìn)行盡量準(zhǔn)確的測算，本文于第二章回顧了國內(nèi)外對資本外逃的不同的界定和測算方法，詳細(xì)分析比較了直接測算法、間接測算法和混合測算法等的優(yōu)劣，并對一些中國學(xué)者測算的中國資本外逃規(guī)模進(jìn)行了簡要評述。第三章結(jié)合中國的實際情況和外匯管理部門的監(jiān)管數(shù)據(jù)，利用經(jīng)調(diào)整的間接測算法對1987—2010年間中國的資本外逃規(guī)模做了較為準(zhǔn)確的測算，并簡要分析了當(dāng)前中國既面臨大量熱錢涌入又面臨大規(guī)模的資本外逃的原因。第四章選取了一系列經(jīng)濟(jì)變量，如經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率、通貨膨脹率、本幣預(yù)期貶值幅度、國內(nèi)外利率差等，通過逐步回歸的方法，尋找影響中國資本外逃的最重要因素。最終得出結(jié)論，影響中國資本外逃規(guī)模的主要因素是本幣預(yù)期貶值程度、外債占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比重、通貨膨脹率和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率。最后，本文討論了中國資本外逃的主要途徑，分經(jīng)常項目、資本項目，以及其他可能途徑進(jìn)行深入分析，并結(jié)合外匯管理當(dāng)局現(xiàn)有的監(jiān)測體系提出了保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、推進(jìn)金融深化、加大對非法外匯交易的打擊力度等防范建議。
[Abstract]:The accumulation and investment of capital is of great importance to the economic development of a country. Therefore, since the end of 1970s, China has implemented the policy of "reform and opening up" to attract foreign capital, effectively improving the efficiency of production, and making China's economy grow at a high speed for a long time. However, while the government attracts a large amount of foreign capital through various means, a considerable amount of capital escapes the supervision of the foreign exchange management department and flows abroad, which has a negative impact on China's economic development. In order to estimate the scale of capital flight in China as accurately as possible, this paper reviews the different definitions and methods of capital flight at home and abroad in the second chapter, and analyzes and compares the direct calculation method in detail. The advantages and disadvantages of indirect and mixed methods are discussed, and the scale of Chinese capital flight calculated by some Chinese scholars is briefly reviewed. The third chapter combines the actual situation of China and the supervision data of the foreign exchange management department, and uses the adjusted indirect calculation method to estimate the scale of capital flight in China from 1987 to 2010. The reasons why China faces both hot money influx and capital flight are briefly analyzed. The fourth chapter selects a series of economic variables, such as economic growth rate, inflation rate, expected devaluation of local currency, interest rate difference at home and abroad, through the method of stepwise regression to find the most important factors affecting capital flight in China. Finally, it is concluded that the main factors affecting the scale of Chinese capital flight are the expected devaluation of the local currency, the proportion of foreign debt to GDP, the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth. Finally, this paper discusses the main ways of capital flight in China, including current account, capital account, and other possible ways, and proposes to maintain economic growth in combination with the existing monitoring system of foreign exchange administration. Promote financial deepening, increase the crackdown on illegal foreign exchange transactions and other preventive proposals.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6

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