【摘要】：中國(guó)自2001年12月11日加入WTO以來(lái)，對(duì)外開(kāi)放程度不斷深入，中央銀行所面臨國(guó)內(nèi)外的經(jīng)濟(jì)金融形勢(shì)也逐漸復(fù)雜化，執(zhí)行貨幣政策的難度也有所增大。目前，經(jīng)歷了次貸危機(jī)、歐債危機(jī)之后，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇緩慢。部分國(guó)家仍面臨嚴(yán)重的通貨膨脹，同時(shí)承受著短期資本大量進(jìn)出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，仍潛在爆發(fā)下一次危機(jī)的可能；國(guó)內(nèi)的通貨膨脹壓力剛有所減輕，經(jīng)濟(jì)逐漸恢復(fù)快速增長(zhǎng)。 在這種背景下，，增加了我國(guó)中央銀行的政策操作的難度。而央行票據(jù)作為頻繁使用的政策工具是較靈活、高流動(dòng)性的，其有效性對(duì)于政策目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)有很重要的影響。但隨著央票發(fā)行量的加大，出現(xiàn)的問(wèn)題也越來(lái)越多，對(duì)于中央銀行票據(jù)有效性的質(zhì)疑也越來(lái)越多。有些學(xué)者認(rèn)為央行票據(jù)終將被國(guó)債等其他政策工具所取代，它只是一個(gè)過(guò)渡的產(chǎn)物，不可能持續(xù)下去。還有人認(rèn)為銀行票據(jù)所面臨的利息支付的逐漸增大，使得其發(fā)行對(duì)于回籠貨幣的作用很小。 文章首先對(duì)中央銀行票據(jù)的產(chǎn)生背景以及作為公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)操作工具的優(yōu)勢(shì)和局限性進(jìn)行了分析，認(rèn)為中央銀行票據(jù)是存在一定的局限性，但其優(yōu)勢(shì)也是顯而易見(jiàn)的。只要合理的運(yùn)用，還是能有效地控制貨幣供應(yīng)量，進(jìn)而到達(dá)保證經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)較快增長(zhǎng)的政策目標(biāo)；其次，分析了中央銀行票據(jù)與貨幣供應(yīng)量、基準(zhǔn)利率的關(guān)系；再次，基于中國(guó)人民銀行公布的2005年—2011年的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，建立VAR模型，用實(shí)證證明了中央銀行票據(jù)余額對(duì)貨幣供應(yīng)量和利率存在一定影響，但效果不是很明顯；最后，提出了改進(jìn)央行票據(jù)有效性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since China joined the WTO on December 11, 2001, the degree of opening to the outside world has been deepening, the economic and financial situation of the central bank at home and abroad has become more and more complicated, and the difficulty of carrying out monetary policy has also increased. At present, after the subprime mortgage crisis, the European debt crisis, the global economic recovery is slow. Some countries are still facing severe inflation and the risk of a large inflow of short-term capital and the potential for a next crisis; inflationary pressures at home have just eased and the economy is gradually returning to rapid growth. In this context, it increases the difficulty of the policy operation of our central bank. As a frequently used policy tool, central bank paper is flexible and highly liquid, and its effectiveness has an important impact on the realization of policy objectives. However, with the increasing issuance of central bank bills, there are more and more questions about the validity of central bank bills. Some scholars argue that central bank paper will eventually be replaced by other policy instruments, such as government bonds, as a product of transition and unlikely to last. Others argue that bank notes face a gradual increase in interest payments, making their issuance of money less useful. This paper first analyzes the background of central bank bills and its advantages and limitations as an open market operation tool, and concludes that central bank bills have some limitations, but their advantages are also obvious. As long as the reasonable use can effectively control the money supply and then reach the policy goal of ensuring steady and rapid economic growth. Secondly, the relationship between central bank bills and money supply, benchmark interest rate is analyzed. Thirdly, based on the statistics published by the people's Bank of China from 2005 to 2011, the VAR model is established, which proves that the central bank bill balance has some influence on the money supply and interest rate, but the effect is not obvious. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the validity of central bank bills.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.31;F224

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