人民幣匯率升值對山東省農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進出口的影響分析
發(fā)布時間：2019-01-17 08:45
【摘要】：近年來,有關(guān)人民幣匯率升值的問題普遍成為國內(nèi)外各界關(guān)注的熱點,尤其金融危機之后,匯率升值成為中國貿(mào)易不可忽視的因素之一。2005年7月21日,中國人民銀行發(fā)布公告宣布我國開始實行以市場供求為基礎(chǔ)、參考一籃子貨幣進行調(diào)節(jié)的、有管理的浮動匯率制度,人民幣匯率不再盯住單一美元,形成更富彈性的人民幣匯率機制,同時人民幣對美元升值百分之二,即美元對人民幣交易價格調(diào)整為1美元兌換8.11元人民幣,人民幣匯率的升值進程拉開序幕。盡管人民幣兌美元的匯率自2005年匯率改革以來持續(xù)上升,從“突破8”一直邁向現(xiàn)在的“奔6時代”,但是由于美元大幅度貶值的背景,且綜合國際國內(nèi)各因素的考慮,眾多的學(xué)者認(rèn)為人民幣仍承受巨大的升值壓力,人民幣升值已然是必然趨勢,截止到2011年人民幣兌換美元匯率為1美元兌換6.34元人民幣。人民幣升值對我國的不同產(chǎn)業(yè)影響各異,農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進出口是關(guān)乎中國民生的重要的傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè),山東省作為中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口最多的省份在我國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口貿(mào)易中扮演了舉足輕重的角色,農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口貿(mào)易對山東省解決社會就業(yè)、民計民生、實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。因此探求人民幣升值與農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進出口之間的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系對于把握農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口創(chuàng)匯及制定出口貿(mào)易決策有著積極的指導(dǎo)意義。就筆者目前掌握的資料來看,經(jīng)典理論文獻對人民幣升值問題的研究主要集中在以下兩個方面：第一,針對人民幣是否應(yīng)該升值的討論；第二,人民幣升值以后帶來的種種影響。有關(guān)第二個方面的研究集中從我國的經(jīng)濟總量、進出口貿(mào)易總額、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)以及就業(yè)等這些宏觀角度進行理論分析和實證分析。至于人民幣對某個具體行業(yè)的影響研究比較匱乏,尤其是專門針對省域農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的研究。因此基于山東省農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口在中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口中的特殊地位,本文立足理論分析和實證分析相結(jié)合的方法,探求人民幣升值與山東省農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進出口之間的關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the issue of RMB exchange rate appreciation has generally become the focus of attention at home and abroad, especially after the financial crisis, exchange rate appreciation has become one of the factors that can not be ignored in China's trade. The people's Bank of China announced in a public announcement that China will begin to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB exchange rate will no longer be pegged to a single dollar. With a more flexible exchange rate regime and a 2% yuan appreciation against the dollar, the dollar is trading at 8.11 yuan against the dollar, the start of the appreciation process. Although the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has been rising continuously since the exchange rate reform in 2005 and has been moving from "breakthrough 8" to the current "age of six", but due to the background of the substantial depreciation of the US dollar and the consideration of various international and domestic factors, Many scholars believe that the yuan is still under tremendous pressure to appreciate, which is already an inevitable trend, with the yuan trading at 6.34 yuan to the dollar as of 2011. The appreciation of the RMB has different effects on different industries in China. The import and export of agricultural products is an important traditional industry related to the people's livelihood of China. Shandong Province, as the province with the most agricultural products export, plays an important role in the agricultural product export trade of our country. The agricultural product export trade plays an important role in solving the social employment, the people's livelihood and realizing the sustainable development in Shandong Province. Therefore, to explore the internal relationship between RMB appreciation and agricultural products import and export has a positive guiding significance to grasp the export of agricultural products to earn foreign exchange and to make export trade decisions. According to the data that the author has at present, the research on the appreciation of RMB mainly focuses on the following two aspects: first, the discussion on whether the RMB should be revalued; Second, the RMB appreciation after the various effects. The second aspect focuses on the theoretical and empirical analysis from the macro perspectives of China's total economic volume, total import and export trade, trade structure and employment. As for the impact of RMB on a specific industry, especially for the export of provincial agricultural products. Therefore, based on the special position of Shandong agricultural products export in China, this paper explores the relationship between the appreciation of RMB and the import and export of agricultural products in Shandong Province based on the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.6;F323.7;F224
[Abstract]:In recent years, the issue of RMB exchange rate appreciation has generally become the focus of attention at home and abroad, especially after the financial crisis, exchange rate appreciation has become one of the factors that can not be ignored in China's trade. The people's Bank of China announced in a public announcement that China will begin to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB exchange rate will no longer be pegged to a single dollar. With a more flexible exchange rate regime and a 2% yuan appreciation against the dollar, the dollar is trading at 8.11 yuan against the dollar, the start of the appreciation process. Although the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has been rising continuously since the exchange rate reform in 2005 and has been moving from "breakthrough 8" to the current "age of six", but due to the background of the substantial depreciation of the US dollar and the consideration of various international and domestic factors, Many scholars believe that the yuan is still under tremendous pressure to appreciate, which is already an inevitable trend, with the yuan trading at 6.34 yuan to the dollar as of 2011. The appreciation of the RMB has different effects on different industries in China. The import and export of agricultural products is an important traditional industry related to the people's livelihood of China. Shandong Province, as the province with the most agricultural products export, plays an important role in the agricultural product export trade of our country. The agricultural product export trade plays an important role in solving the social employment, the people's livelihood and realizing the sustainable development in Shandong Province. Therefore, to explore the internal relationship between RMB appreciation and agricultural products import and export has a positive guiding significance to grasp the export of agricultural products to earn foreign exchange and to make export trade decisions. According to the data that the author has at present, the research on the appreciation of RMB mainly focuses on the following two aspects: first, the discussion on whether the RMB should be revalued; Second, the RMB appreciation after the various effects. The second aspect focuses on the theoretical and empirical analysis from the macro perspectives of China's total economic volume, total import and export trade, trade structure and employment. As for the impact of RMB on a specific industry, especially for the export of provincial agricultural products. Therefore, based on the special position of Shandong agricultural products export in China, this paper explores the relationship between the appreciation of RMB and the import and export of agricultural products in Shandong Province based on the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.6;F323.7;F224
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