【摘要】：2005年以來,人民幣兌美元匯率連續(xù)升值,5年中累計升值22%。匯率升值對出口商品價格從而出口規(guī)模的顯著影響已為大量的理論和實證分析所證明。那么,人民幣匯率的變動尤其是升值預期的增強是否會影響中國出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的變動?在人民幣升值可能造成勞動密集型出口企業(yè)利潤驟減、金融風險不斷加劇,但也可能引起中國轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)、推動人民幣國際化的背景下,本文著重從人民幣匯率影響出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)方面進行了研究,從而探討未來人民幣匯率政策的取向。 本文采用人民幣實際有效匯率指數(shù)來衡量人民幣匯率的變化對中國出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,認為匯率影響商品結(jié)構(gòu)變動主要從商品的國外需求彈性及本身生產(chǎn)要素投入兩個方面,描繪了匯率影響出口結(jié)構(gòu)的傳導路徑。本文對出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)衡量有別于大多數(shù)文獻采用的SITC5類、7類和SITC6類、8類分類方法,而是以產(chǎn)品的附加值含量為分類基礎(chǔ),采用Lall(2002,2005)的復雜性指數(shù),建立了Lall出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)指標體系,并研究了人民幣匯率對其的短期影響和長期影響；且為了更好地觀察短期影響,丁文還根據(jù)中國統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的特殊性,分析高新產(chǎn)品的出口結(jié)構(gòu),以便觀察人民幣匯率對出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的短期影響。 研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),短期內(nèi)人民幣升值對中國Lall出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生的影響是非常微小的,但是長期情況下,匯率對出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)變動的影響效果開始凸顯。隨著中國逐漸實行更靈活和富有競爭力的人民幣匯率制度,未來人民幣的升值趨勢對優(yōu)化出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)將產(chǎn)生越來越明顯的推進作用。 本文第1章提出研究的背景及其研究意義。第2章梳理了匯率影響出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的研究文獻及相關(guān)數(shù)理基礎(chǔ),給出了匯率影響中國出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的影響路徑。第3章介紹關(guān)于人民幣匯率制度的改革成果并分析了中國的出口商品現(xiàn)狀,在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)造了出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)指標,并分別做了相應(yīng)的定性分析。第4章對兩種出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)進行了實證研究,做出了結(jié)果分析。最后是本文的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since 2005, the RMB has continuously appreciated against the US dollar, with a cumulative appreciation of 22% in five years. The significant influence of exchange rate appreciation on export commodity price and export scale has been proved by a large number of theoretical and empirical analysis. So, will the change of RMB exchange rate, especially the increase of appreciation expectation, affect the change of China's export commodity structure? At a time when the appreciation of the RMB may cause a sharp drop in the profits of labor-intensive export enterprises and an increasing financial risk, it may also cause China to transform its economic structure and promote the internationalization of the renminbi. In this paper, the influence of RMB exchange rate on the structure of export commodities is studied, and the orientation of RMB exchange rate policy in the future is discussed. This paper uses the real effective exchange rate index of RMB to measure the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate on the structure of China's export commodities, and points out that the influence of exchange rate on the change of commodity structure is mainly from two aspects: the elasticity of foreign demand of commodities and the input of its own factors of production. The transmission path of exchange rate influencing export structure is described. In this paper, the structure of export commodities is different from the SITC5, 7, SITC6 and 8 classification methods used in most literature, but based on the added value content of the product, the complexity index of Lall (20022005) is used. This paper establishes the index system of Lall export commodity structure, and studies the short-term and long-term influence of RMB exchange rate on it. In order to better observe the short-term effects, Ding Wen also analyzes the export structure of high-tech products according to the particularity of China's statistical data, in order to observe the short-term impact of RMB exchange rate on the export commodity structure. The results show that the impact of RMB appreciation on China's Lall export commodity structure is very small in the short term, but in the long run, the effect of exchange rate on the change of export commodity structure is becoming prominent. As China gradually implements a more flexible and competitive RMB exchange rate regime, the trend of RMB appreciation in the future will play a more and more obvious role in promoting the optimization of export commodity structure. Chapter 1 presents the background and significance of the research. Chapter 2 combs the research literature and related mathematical basis of the influence of exchange rate on the structure of export commodities, and gives the influence path of exchange rate on the structure of export commodities of China. Chapter 3 introduces the results of the reform of RMB exchange rate system and analyzes the current situation of China's export commodities. On this basis, it constructs the structural indicators of export commodities, and makes corresponding qualitative analysis. Chapter 4 makes an empirical study on the structure of two kinds of export commodities and makes an analysis of the results. The last part is the policy suggestion of this paper.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.62;F224

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