發(fā)布時間：2018-12-20 12:40

【摘要】：自上世紀(jì)90年代以來,伴隨經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化進(jìn)程的不斷推進(jìn),國際資本流動規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,特別自本次全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來,以我國為代表的發(fā)展中國家跨境資本流入大幅增加,從而加大了政策執(zhí)行的難度。國際資本流動在一國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中發(fā)揮著怎樣的作用?包括直接投資、證券投資、國際銀行信貸在內(nèi)的各類資本流動對一國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的作用是否存在差異?這些問題對于我國合理利用外資、科學(xué)對外投資,發(fā)揮國際資本流動在我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的正效應(yīng),防范投機(jī)資金頻繁流入流出對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)造成的沖擊具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文首先回顧并總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外國際資本流動的相關(guān)理論及實證研究。其次,對1995年以來全球國際資本流動現(xiàn)狀及特征進(jìn)行了深入分析。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文基于68個國家1995-2010年的面板數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建Panel Data模型,本文將全部國家分為發(fā)達(dá)國家、發(fā)展中國家、轉(zhuǎn)型國家,并將國際資本流動分為國際直接投資、國際證券投資、其他投資,分別就國際資本流入、國際資本流出對三類國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長及其他經(jīng)濟(jì)因素的影響進(jìn)行了實證研究。 得出以下結(jié)論：對所有樣本國家而言,國際資本流入對其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有顯著的促進(jìn)作用,國際資本流出對其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長作用并不顯著。對發(fā)達(dá)國家而言,國際資本流入對其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有顯著的促進(jìn)作用,其中直接投資和證券投資流入對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的促進(jìn)作用顯著,國際資本流出對其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的促進(jìn)作用也很顯著。對發(fā)展中國家而言,國際資本總流入對其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長作用不顯著,三類投資中只有直接投資流入對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的促進(jìn)作用是顯著的,國際資本總流出對發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長作用不顯著,三類投資中只有證券投資流出對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的促進(jìn)作用是顯著的。對轉(zhuǎn)型國家而言,國際資本流入對其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有顯著的促進(jìn)作用,其中其他投資流入對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有顯著的促進(jìn)作用,國際資本總流出對轉(zhuǎn)型國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長作用不顯著,其中證券投資流出對轉(zhuǎn)型國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長呈現(xiàn)顯著的正效應(yīng)。 最后,本文基于國際資本流動現(xiàn)狀及實證研究結(jié)果,給出中國對跨境資本管理的政策建議：加強(qiáng)跨境資金的監(jiān)測和預(yù)警；加強(qiáng)對短期跨境資本流動的監(jiān)管；優(yōu)化國際資本流入結(jié)構(gòu),提高外資利用效率；加快“走出去”步伐,切實提高對外投資收益率。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, with the continuous progress of economic globalization, the scale of international capital flows has been expanding, especially since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the cross-border capital inflows of developing countries, represented by China, have increased significantly. Thus increasing the difficulty of policy implementation. What role does international capital flow play in a country's economic development? Are there any differences in the effects of various capital flows, including direct investment, portfolio investment and international bank credit, on a country's economic development? These problems have important practical significance for our country to make rational use of foreign capital, to invest abroad scientifically, to exert the positive effect of international capital flow in the economic development of our country, and to prevent the frequent inflow and outflow of speculative capital. This paper first reviews and summarizes the relevant theories and empirical studies on international capital flows at home and abroad. Secondly, the current situation and characteristics of global international capital flows since 1995 are analyzed. On this basis, based on the panel data of 68 countries from 1995 to 2010, this paper constructs a Panel Data model, which divides all countries into developed countries, developing countries, countries in transition, and international capital flows into international direct investment. The influence of international capital inflow and international capital outflow on the economic growth and other economic factors of three kinds of countries are studied empirically. The following conclusions are drawn: for all sample countries, international capital inflow has a significant role in promoting their economic growth, while international capital outflow has no significant effect on their economic growth. For developed countries, international capital inflow has a significant role in promoting their economic growth, in which direct investment and portfolio investment inflows promote economic growth significantly, and international capital outflow also plays a significant role in promoting their economic growth. For developing countries, total international capital inflows do not play a significant role in their economic growth, and of the three types of investments, only direct investment inflows contribute significantly to economic growth. The effect of total outflow of international capital on the economic growth of developing countries is not significant. For countries in transition, international capital inflows have a significant contribution to their economic growth, in which other investment inflows have a significant contribution to economic growth, while total international capital outflows have no significant impact on economic growth in transition countries. Among them, the outflow of securities investment has a significant positive effect on the economic growth of the transition countries. Finally, based on the current situation of international capital flows and the results of empirical research, this paper gives some policy recommendations on cross-border capital management in China: strengthening the monitoring and early warning of cross-border capital flows, strengthening the supervision of short-term cross-border capital flows; We should optimize the structure of international capital inflow, improve the efficiency of foreign capital utilization, speed up the pace of "going out", and earnestly raise the rate of return on foreign investment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F124;F224

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