【摘要】：在2008年次貸危機(jī)來(lái)臨之前,我國(guó)宏觀貨幣政策是以防通脹從緊的,但在2008年9月之后,我國(guó)的宏觀調(diào)控目標(biāo)立刻轉(zhuǎn)為保增長(zhǎng),并推出了空前的4萬(wàn)億計(jì)劃,然而隨著世界各國(guó)不斷退出積極的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激政策之后,我國(guó)新一輪的宏觀調(diào)控又立刻轉(zhuǎn)為防止通貨膨脹。 這一連串的變化之快,變化之急,番猶如過(guò)山車(chē)一般,這也引起了我對(duì)中國(guó)現(xiàn)階段貨幣政策有效性的關(guān)注。相較西方的貨幣政策理論經(jīng)過(guò)多年了實(shí)踐爭(zhēng)論再實(shí)踐,中國(guó)的貨幣政策理論就顯得相對(duì)的滯后。同時(shí),由于我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的特殊性,西方的貨幣理論又無(wú)法直接拿來(lái)按套在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)上,所以本文從一個(gè)較新的角度來(lái)解析,現(xiàn)階段我國(guó)各貨幣傳導(dǎo)渠道的效用。 本文從當(dāng)前我國(guó)貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)途徑的三個(gè)渠道：利率渠道、貨幣渠道和信貸渠道入手,分析和總結(jié)前人研究成果；并在第三章引入實(shí)證分析,再利用向量自回歸模型VAR,對(duì)我國(guó)近十年的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,得出部分結(jié)論和政策建議。從完善傳導(dǎo)制度上看,應(yīng)大力發(fā)展貨幣市場(chǎng),逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)利率市場(chǎng)化,并避免過(guò)度頻繁的貨幣政策操作。 本文得出的主要結(jié)論有以下幾點(diǎn)： a)當(dāng)前情況下,在我國(guó)利率、貨幣和信貸三種貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)途徑都是有效的； b)短期內(nèi)貨幣政策是非中性的,而在長(zhǎng)期是中性； c)貨幣途徑和信貸途徑的脈沖響應(yīng)作用時(shí)間比利率途徑更持久； d)M2、M1、MO三個(gè)指標(biāo)中,M0對(duì)GDP、CPI的脈沖作用相對(duì)較弱,M2、M1對(duì)GDP的沖擊作用較為接近,M1在對(duì)CPI沖擊作用時(shí)比M2更為迅速； e)我國(guó)同樣存在價(jià)格之謎——在緊縮的政策沖擊下,產(chǎn)生正向脈沖響應(yīng)； f)CS對(duì)與CPI在一開(kāi)始都有負(fù)向的脈沖響應(yīng),這一負(fù)向沖擊應(yīng)該被視作政府投資的擠出效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:Before the subprime mortgage crisis came in 2008, China's macro-monetary policy was to prevent inflation from tightening, but after September 2008, China's macroeconomic control target immediately turned to growth, and launched an unprecedented $4 trillion program. However, with the countries in the world withdrawing from the positive economic stimulus policy, China's new round of macro-control immediately turned to prevent inflation. The speed and urgency of this series of changes, like a roller coaster, have also raised my concerns about the effectiveness of China's monetary policy at this stage. Compared with the western monetary policy theory, China's monetary policy theory lags behind after years of practice and argument. At the same time, because of the particularity of China's economic structure, the western monetary theory can not be directly applied to China's economy, so this paper analyzes the effectiveness of various monetary transmission channels in China from a relatively new point of view. This paper begins with three channels of transmission of monetary policy in China: interest rate channel, monetary channel and credit channel, and analyzes and summarizes the previous research results; In the third chapter, we introduce the empirical analysis, then use the vector autoregressive model (VAR,) to analyze the data of our country in the past ten years, and draw some conclusions and policy recommendations. From the point of view of perfecting transmission system, we should develop the money market vigorously, realize the marketization of interest rate step by step, and avoid the excessive frequent monetary policy operation. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: under the current situation of: a), the monetary policy is non-neutral in the short term and is neutral in the long run in the short term of; b), which is effective through the transmission of interest rate, money and credit. C) the pulse response time of the monetary and credit channels is longer than that of the interest rate approach; D) the pulse effect of M0 on GDP,CPI is relatively weak, and the impact effect of M2CM1 on GDP is close, and M1 is more rapid than M2 in the impact on CPI. (e) there is also a price mystery in China, which produces a positive impulse response under the impact of austerity policies; F) CS has a negative impulse response to both CPI and CPI in the beginning, a negative shock that should be seen as an crowding out effect of government investment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F822.0

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本文編號(hào)：2376017