【摘要】：人民幣持續(xù)升值引發(fā)熱錢的大量流入,并以此對我國資產(chǎn)市場泡沫的產(chǎn)生發(fā)揮了推波助瀾的作用。本文將資產(chǎn)價格引入IS—LM模型后,對匯率影響實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的資產(chǎn)價格路徑進(jìn)行了理論分析。在此基礎(chǔ)上的實(shí)證分析結(jié)果顯示,匯率、房地產(chǎn)銷售價格指數(shù)與產(chǎn)出之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系。短期內(nèi),匯率通過股票市場對工業(yè)產(chǎn)值的影響在某些時間內(nèi)非常顯著,而其他情況下則十分不確定,有些時間段內(nèi)從變動方向上來看甚至相反。這種不穩(wěn)定性,可能與資產(chǎn)價格暴漲對實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的"擠出效應(yīng)"有關(guān)。
[Abstract]:The continuous appreciation of RMB leads to a large inflow of hot money, which contributes to the emergence of asset market bubbles in China. After introducing asset price into IS-LM model, this paper makes a theoretical analysis on the path of asset price that the exchange rate affects the real economy. On this basis, the empirical results show that there is a cointegration relationship among exchange rate, real estate sales price index and output. In the short term, the impact of the exchange rate on industrial output through the stock market is significant at some times, but in other cases it is highly uncertain, even in the opposite direction in some periods of time. This instability may be related to the "crowding out" effect of asset price inflation on real economic growth.
【作者單位】： 山東經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院財(cái)政金融學(xué)院;
【分類號】：F224;F832.6;F127

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 呂江林;李明生;石勁;;人民幣升值對中國股市影響的實(shí)證分析[J];金融研究;2007年06期

2 王愛儉;沈慶R，

本文編號：2370881