【摘要】：本文首先介紹了全球外匯市場的概況，從全球外匯市場的起源入手，詳細介紹了國際外匯市場的規(guī)模和特點�？紤]到我國自2005年匯改以來的種種努力，本文特別介紹了我國外匯市場的形成與發(fā)展以及我國外匯市場的交易狀況。 為了說明一個風(fēng)險，人們首先要了解這個風(fēng)險的根源。對于全球外匯市場，外匯波動就是市場風(fēng)險的根源。所以，本問介紹了波動的理論原理與成因分析。結(jié)合我國人民幣浮動的內(nèi)外因素，本文介紹了人民幣波動的特征。為了分析種種波動，本文還介紹了幾種廣泛應(yīng)用的波動分析工具。 在介紹了外匯市場的波動之后，作者試圖通過介紹外匯風(fēng)險與衡量方法導(dǎo)出人民幣波動的風(fēng)險與實證分析。通過作者研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，目前世界上還沒有一種模型或者工具可以通過分析一種或幾種因素的變化來準確預(yù)測外匯波動的變化。某些學(xué)者試圖通過金融工具量化出一個因素的變化對某種匯率的影響或者匯率的變化對經(jīng)濟因素的影響。然后，由于影響匯率的因素多種多樣，，通過這樣的分析得出的結(jié)論未必能直接反映在真實的變化上，甚至可能和事實的趨勢背道而馳。所以，在目前階段，通過金融工具做出的外匯模型更多地停留于理論研究方面。 既然無法準確預(yù)估外匯的波動，那么就要探討如何控制外匯波動對中國所帶來的影響。本文從宏觀經(jīng)濟，國內(nèi)企業(yè)和外資企業(yè)三個角度闡述應(yīng)對外匯波動，特別是人民幣升值所采用的策略。
[Abstract]:This paper first introduces the general situation of the global foreign exchange market, starting with the origin of the global foreign exchange market, introduces in detail the scale and characteristics of the international foreign exchange market. Considering the efforts of China since the exchange rate reform in 2005, this paper introduces the formation and development of China's foreign exchange market and the trading situation of our country's foreign exchange market. To illustrate a risk, one must first understand the root causes of the risk. For the global foreign exchange market, foreign exchange volatility is the root of market risk. Therefore, this question introduces the theory of fluctuation and causes of analysis. Combined with the internal and external factors of RMB floating in China, this paper introduces the characteristics of RMB fluctuation. In order to analyze all kinds of fluctuations, this paper also introduces several widely used fluctuation analysis tools. After introducing the volatility of foreign exchange market, the author tries to deduce the risk and empirical analysis of RMB volatility by introducing foreign exchange risk and measuring methods. Through the author's research, there is no model or tool in the world that can accurately predict the change of foreign exchange volatility by analyzing the change of one or more factors. Some scholars try to quantify the influence of the change of a factor on a certain exchange rate or the influence of the change of exchange rate on economic factors by means of financial instruments. Then, because of the variety of factors affecting the exchange rate, the conclusions from this analysis may not be directly reflected in the real changes, and may even run counter to the actual trend. Therefore, at the present stage, the foreign exchange model made by financial instruments is more focused on theoretical research. Since it is impossible to accurately estimate the volatility of foreign exchange, it is necessary to explore how to control the impact of foreign exchange volatility on China. In this paper, the strategies of dealing with foreign exchange fluctuations, especially RMB appreciation, are discussed from three angles: macro economy, domestic enterprises and foreign enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.52

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