【摘要】：20世紀(jì)90年代以來(lái),伴隨著世界范圍內(nèi)大規(guī)模金融自由化浪潮,金融危機(jī)頻繁爆發(fā),對(duì)部分國(guó)家乃至全球經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)巨大影響。在對(duì)危機(jī)的反思中,金融體系內(nèi)生系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的動(dòng)態(tài)機(jī)制開(kāi)始引起關(guān)注。次貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)進(jìn)而演化成全球金融危機(jī),更是暴露出系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的巨大危害和傳統(tǒng)金融監(jiān)管體制識(shí)別、預(yù)警、防范和處置系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的不足。但到目前為止,國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的界定、動(dòng)態(tài)演進(jìn)機(jī)理及抑制等問(wèn)題的認(rèn)識(shí)都有待于進(jìn)一步完善和深化。本文首先從歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)的角度,對(duì)系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要特征及其歷史演變進(jìn)行了梳理和歸納,試圖提出一個(gè)更能反映其內(nèi)涵和外延的定義,從而明確本文研究對(duì)象。其次,本文分別從金融體系親周期性、特定沖擊與系統(tǒng)重要性金融機(jī)構(gòu)、金融拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)和信貸緊縮等角度分析了系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)累積、觸發(fā)、傳導(dǎo)三個(gè)階段的內(nèi)生機(jī)制。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文在資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)系統(tǒng)性效應(yīng)的分析框架下,對(duì)上述因素和機(jī)制進(jìn)行整合,完整分析了系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的演進(jìn)機(jī)理。隨后,本文從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警、防范、處置三個(gè)方面探討了抑制系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的制度設(shè)計(jì),從系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的時(shí)空維度探討了宏觀審慎監(jiān)管工具的設(shè)計(jì)問(wèn)題。在對(duì)制度和工具的研究中,既對(duì)其理論基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行分析,也對(duì)設(shè)計(jì)原則、思路、主要難題及解決方案等一般性的問(wèn)題進(jìn)行探討,并結(jié)合國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)其有效性進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。最后,本文在對(duì)中國(guó)金融體系系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的特征、制度根源、主要領(lǐng)域和測(cè)度方法進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了中國(guó)抑制系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的總體思路,并進(jìn)一步開(kāi)展了有針對(duì)性、可操作性的政策研究。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, with the large-scale financial liberalization in the world, the financial crisis broke out frequently, which brought great influence to some countries and even the global economy. In the reflection of the crisis, the dynamic mechanism of endogenous systemic risk in the financial system began to attract attention. The outbreak of the sub-prime mortgage crisis has evolved into a global financial crisis, which exposes the great harm of systemic financial risk and the deficiency of traditional financial supervision system to identify, warn, prevent and deal with systemic financial risk. So far, however, the definition of systemic financial risk, dynamic evolution mechanism and inhibition need to be further improved and deepened at home and abroad. In this paper, the main characteristics and historical evolution of systemic financial risk are analyzed and summarized from the perspective of historical experience, and a definition that reflects its connotation and extension is proposed to clarify the research object of this paper. Secondly, this paper analyzes the endogenous mechanisms of systemic financial risk accumulation, trigger and transmission from the perspective of pro-periodicity of financial system, specific impact and systemically important financial institutions, financial topology and credit crunch. On this basis, under the analysis frame of systematic effect of asset price fluctuation, this paper integrates the above factors and mechanisms, and analyzes the evolution mechanism of systemic financial risk. Then, this paper discusses the institutional design of suppressing systemic financial risk from three aspects of risk warning, prevention and disposal, and discusses the design of macro-prudential supervision tools from the space-time dimension of systemic financial risk. In the research of system and tools, it not only analyzes the theoretical basis, but also discusses the general problems, such as design principles, ideas, main problems and solutions, and verifies its validity with international experience. Finally, based on the analysis of the characteristics, institutional roots, main fields and measurement methods of the systemic risk in China's financial system, this paper puts forward the general idea of suppressing the systemic financial risk in China, and further develops the targeted approach. Operational policy research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F830.99;F832.0

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