【摘要】：近年來,隨著人民幣的不斷升值和中美利差的加大,熱錢大量流入我國,特別是房地產(chǎn)市場。然而,熱錢如同一把“雙刃劍”,其在促進國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的同時,亦會引起資產(chǎn)價格的快速上漲,甚至形成資產(chǎn)泡沫,一旦該領域無利可圖,熱錢將大量流出,最終可能會造成資產(chǎn)泡沫的破滅,甚至導致危機。因此,如何利用熱錢促進房地產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展,同時有效地防止熱錢惡意炒作房價,這需要我們能夠合理地度量熱錢流入規(guī)模,以及正確認識熱錢流入對房地產(chǎn)價格的影響。 本文主要研究熱錢流入對住宅類房地產(chǎn)價格的影響,重點對熱錢流入我國規(guī)模進行度量,并建立了熱錢與住宅類房價相關指標的VAR模型,進行實證研究。在熱錢流入規(guī)模度量上,側(cè)重研究隱藏在FDI的熱錢。研究方法是構建FDI的九個影響指標,并建立了FDI的預測模型,將FDI實際值與預測值的差額作為隱藏在FDI中的熱錢。本文對所構建的VAR模型進行實證檢驗,得出結(jié)論：(1)熱錢與住宅類房價是呈正相關關系的；(2)熱錢與住宅類房價存在長期均衡關系,但是,熱錢流入并不是住宅類房價的主要原因；(3)熱錢變動并不能格蘭杰引起經(jīng)濟房房價變動；(4)住宅類房價對熱錢沖擊呈正負交替的響應,即沒有持久效應,相比較而言,高檔住宅對熱錢沖擊的響應最明顯也最持久；(5)熱錢對高檔住宅的貢獻度最大達到28.26%,而對經(jīng)濟房的只有1.84%。 最后,本文針對實證結(jié)果提出建立多部門合作機制,監(jiān)控熱錢流動,并合理引導熱錢流向等政策建議,并提出研究展望。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the appreciation of RMB and the increase of interest rate difference between China and America, hot money flows into our country, especially the real estate market. However, hot money is like a "double-edged sword". While promoting domestic economic development, it will also cause a rapid rise in asset prices and even form an asset bubble. Once this area is unprofitable, hot money will flow out in large quantities. Eventually, it could lead to the bursting of asset bubbles and even crisis. Therefore, how to use hot money to promote the healthy development of real estate and effectively prevent hot money malicious speculation of house prices, which requires us to reasonably measure the scale of hot money inflows, and correctly understand the impact of hot money inflows on real estate prices. This paper mainly studies the influence of hot money inflow on housing real estate prices, especially measures the scale of hot money inflow into our country, and establishes the VAR model of hot money and housing price related indexes, and carries on the empirical research. In the hot money inflow scale measurement, focuses on the research hidden in the FDI hot money. The research method is to construct nine influence indexes of FDI and establish the prediction model of FDI. The difference between the actual value of FDI and the predicted value is regarded as the hot money hidden in FDI. This paper empirically tests the VAR model and draws the following conclusions: (1) the relationship between hot money and housing prices is positive; (2) there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between hot money and housing prices, however, The inflow of hot money is not the main reason of housing price; (3) the change of hot money can not cause Granger to change the house price; (4) the housing price has a positive or negative response to the impact of hot money, that is, there is no lasting effect. The response of high-grade housing to hot money shock is the most obvious and the most lasting; (5) the contribution of hot money to high-grade housing reaches 28.26, but only 1.84 to economic housing. Finally, based on the empirical results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions such as establishing a multi-sector cooperation mechanism, monitoring the flow of hot money, and reasonably guiding the flow of hot money, and puts forward the research prospect.
【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F299.23;F832.5

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