【摘要】：在中國經(jīng)濟日益密切參與到國際經(jīng)濟活動中去，對外經(jīng)濟交往不斷加深，國民生產(chǎn)總值高速增長的經(jīng)濟背景下，匯率日益成為一個重要的經(jīng)濟變量，成為了國際經(jīng)濟交往的紐帶，幾乎所有的國際經(jīng)濟活動都要與匯率產(chǎn)生聯(lián)系。一個開放經(jīng)濟體的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展與匯率制度是分不開的。自從2005年我國實行了以市場供求為基礎(chǔ)、參考一籃子貨幣進行調(diào)節(jié)的有管理的浮動匯率制度之后，人民幣匯率問題日益成為國際經(jīng)濟中的一個重要課題。如何有效估計人民幣的均衡匯率，測算人民幣匯率的失調(diào)程度，，合理預(yù)估人民幣幣值的走勢，對于我國的對外經(jīng)濟交往乃至國民經(jīng)濟的健康發(fā)展都有著重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文首先回顧了人民幣匯率制度的改革歷程，以歷史的發(fā)展的眼光看待人民幣匯率問題，緊接著對西方經(jīng)濟學(xué)中的經(jīng)典匯率決定理論進行了綜述，以期確定影響一國匯率的基本經(jīng)濟因素有哪些。在此基礎(chǔ)之上，筆者選擇了行為均衡匯率理論（BEER）對人民幣的均衡匯率進行實證分析。在具體的變量選擇過程中，筆者結(jié)合對經(jīng)典匯率理論的分析，確定了經(jīng)濟開放度、勞動生產(chǎn)率、貿(mào)易條件、貨幣供給量、政府支出和國內(nèi)外利率差六個基本經(jīng)濟變量作為人民幣均衡匯率的解釋變量，通過實證分析確定了人民幣均衡匯率方程，并測算了人民幣匯率的失調(diào)程度，預(yù)測了人民幣未來的走勢。 本文在理論分析和實證分析的基礎(chǔ)上得出了以下結(jié)論：（1）經(jīng)濟開放度、勞動生產(chǎn)率、貿(mào)易條件、貨幣供給量、政府支出和國內(nèi)外利率差等對人民幣均衡匯率確實有影響，但是影響方向及程度不同。（2）長期的人民幣匯率走勢情況，匯率失調(diào)是常態(tài)，但是失調(diào)程度不大。同時在未來的一段時間內(nèi)，人民幣匯率將保持失調(diào)的狀態(tài)，穩(wěn)步升值。 在文章的最后，筆者對人民幣匯率制度改革提出了幾點建議：（1）增強人民幣匯率的彈性。（2）深化發(fā)展外匯市場，提高市場活躍度。（3）緩解人民幣升值和通貨膨脹并行的壓力。
[Abstract]:In the context of China's increasingly close participation in international economic activities, the deepening of foreign economic contacts and the rapid growth of its gross national product, the exchange rate has increasingly become an important economic variable. It has become the link of international economic communication, almost all international economic activities have to be linked with exchange rate. The economic development of an open economy is inseparable from the exchange rate regime. Since China implemented a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand in 2005, with reference to a basket of currencies, the issue of RMB exchange rate has increasingly become an important issue in the international economy. How to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB effectively, calculate the misadjustment degree of RMB exchange rate, and estimate the trend of RMB currency value reasonably have important theoretical and practical significance for the healthy development of our country's foreign economic exchanges and even the national economy. This paper reviews the course of the reform of RMB exchange rate system, views the issue of RMB exchange rate from the perspective of historical development, and then summarizes the classical theory of exchange rate determination in western economics. With a view to determining the basic economic factors that affect a country's exchange rate. On this basis, the author chooses the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate theory (BEER) to carry on the empirical analysis to the RMB equilibrium exchange rate. In the process of choosing specific variables, the author analyzes the classical exchange rate theory and determines the economic openness, labor productivity, terms of trade, money supply. Six basic economic variables of government expenditure and interest rate difference at home and abroad are taken as the explanatory variables of RMB equilibrium exchange rate. The equilibrium exchange rate equation of RMB is determined by empirical analysis, and the misadjustment degree of RMB exchange rate is calculated. Forecast the future trend of RMB. On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions: (1) Economic openness, labor productivity, terms of trade, money supply, government expenditure and interest rate differentials at home and abroad do have an impact on the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB. But the influence direction and the degree are different. (2) the long-term RMB exchange rate trend situation, the exchange rate misadjustment is the normal, but the misadjustment degree is not big. At the same time in the future, the RMB exchange rate will remain misaligned, steady appreciation. At the end of the paper, the author puts forward some suggestions on the reform of RMB exchange rate system: (1) strengthening the flexibility of RMB exchange rate; (2) deepening the development of foreign exchange market and increasing market activity; (3) relieving the pressure of RMB appreciation and inflation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：國際關(guān)系學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6

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