【摘要】：從復(fù)雜金融系統(tǒng)的視角,基于系統(tǒng)復(fù)雜性理論,對于經(jīng)濟全球化背景下的金融危機生成、深化等過程進行全面分析,以探尋金融危機的系統(tǒng)演化特征和演化路徑。 首先,對金融危機演化的系統(tǒng)復(fù)雜性進行總體理論分析,揭示金融系統(tǒng)作用機制,歸納金融危機演化的特征,進而解析金融危機的系統(tǒng)演化機制。 其次,以美國次貸危機為例,對金融危機生成的系統(tǒng)復(fù)雜性進行例證分析。根據(jù)美國1987年至2009年的標準普爾500指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù),通過系統(tǒng)非線性、分形檢驗和分形維數(shù)的計算,分析了“危機前”、“次貸危機”、“金融危機”三個時段的系統(tǒng)演化特性的變化,揭示了金融危機生成與爆發(fā)的系統(tǒng)演化復(fù)雜動態(tài)性。 第三,基于產(chǎn)品市場和金融市場的平衡,通過建立危機期間名義匯率和價格可漸進調(diào)整的小型開放經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)模型,分析了在部分負債美元化情況下,基于較低和較高的總投資利率彈性兩種情況,實施貨幣盯住措施成功和失敗兩種結(jié)果的系統(tǒng)動態(tài)特性。通過對危機深化期中國在此次國際金融危機中的降低利率政策和金融救助政策的短期政策效應(yīng)實證分析,得出政策實施有效的結(jié)論,模型應(yīng)用成功。 最后,闡述了后金融危機時期金融市場全球化的發(fā)展趨勢,進一步探討了金融、經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)存在的演化風(fēng)險,側(cè)面分析了中國當前的經(jīng)濟、金融現(xiàn)狀,以簡要提出防范建議。
[Abstract]:From the point of view of complex financial system, based on the theory of system complexity, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the process of financial crisis generation and deepening under the background of economic globalization, in order to explore the system evolution characteristics and evolution path of financial crisis. First of all, the system complexity of the evolution of financial crisis is analyzed in general, the mechanism of financial system is revealed, the characteristics of the evolution of financial crisis are summarized, and the system evolution mechanism of financial crisis is analyzed. Secondly, taking the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States as an example, the system complexity of the financial crisis is illustrated and analyzed. Based on the S & P 500 index data from 1987 to 2009 in the United States, this paper analyzes the "pre-crisis" and "sub-prime crisis" through systematic nonlinearity, fractal testing and fractal dimension calculation. The change of the system evolution characteristics in three periods of "financial crisis" reveals the complex dynamics of the system evolution of the emergence and outbreak of financial crisis. Thirdly, based on the balance between the product market and the financial market, through the establishment of a small open economic system model in which nominal exchange rates and prices can be adjusted gradually during the crisis, this paper analyzes the dollarization of partial liabilities. Based on the lower and higher total investment interest rate elasticity, the system dynamic characteristics of the success and failure of the currency peg are discussed. Based on the empirical analysis of the short-term policy effects of China's interest rate reduction policy and financial rescue policy in the international financial crisis during the deepening period of the crisis, the effective conclusion of the policy implementation and the successful application of the model are obtained. Finally, this paper expounds the development trend of the financial market globalization in the post-financial crisis period, further discusses the evolution risks of the financial and economic systems, analyzes the current economic and financial situation in China, and puts forward some preventive suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F224;F831.59

【引證文獻】

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 劉琳琳;國際金融危機對我國進出口貿(mào)易傳染研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2013年

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本文編號：2228206