【摘要】：氣候變化是當(dāng)今最重要的全球環(huán)境問題之一,它直接影響著所有的自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)以及社會經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)。全球氣候變化帶來的負(fù)面影響是全球人類面臨的重大威脅,也是人類共同面對的巨大挑戰(zhàn)。森林與氣候變化有著十分密切的關(guān)系,在應(yīng)對氣候變化中森林具有獨(dú)特的功能和地位。森林生態(tài)系統(tǒng)提供的眾多公共服務(wù),為人類做出了巨大貢獻(xiàn)。然而,森林的所有者并沒有得到相應(yīng)的回報,原因在于森林生態(tài)價值的外部性。如何將森林生態(tài)價值量化,并反映到森林所有者或生產(chǎn)者的利潤函數(shù)中,是世界各國政府和學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問題。森林是陸地上最大的有機(jī)碳庫,樹木的生長過程也是CO2的吸收過程,該過程能有效減少大氣中CO2濃度。在全球應(yīng)對氣候變化的條件下,如何將森林碳匯及其價值量化,并反映到所有者或生產(chǎn)者的利潤函數(shù)中,形成有效的價格機(jī)制,是當(dāng)今學(xué)術(shù)界的焦點(diǎn)問題之一。 首先,本文簡述了當(dāng)今應(yīng)對氣候變化背景,在此基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)KAYA公式構(gòu)建了低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)模型,模型計算結(jié)果為：2007年,江西全省碳排放量為1.42億t／年,人均碳排放量3.25t／人·年；利用模型計算江西森林植被抵消的本地區(qū)碳排放量0.265億t／年,對江西省發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的貢獻(xiàn)率為18.7%。然后,對比多種森林碳儲量和碳匯的計算方法,采用森林蓄積量擴(kuò)展法計算江西森林碳儲量和碳匯。計算結(jié)果為：2010年,江西森林碳儲量為587.597×106t；按照江西森林蓄積增長率年均生長量4.03m3/hm2為基礎(chǔ),同時考慮多種因素的影響,推算出江西2020年江西森林碳儲量為901.709×106t,2010年到2020年期間,江西森林總的碳匯潛力是314.112×106t,年均碳匯能力為31.411×106t。 其次,本文研究價值評估理論與森林碳匯經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)特性,得出森林碳匯價值評估模型；結(jié)合森林碳匯計量方法,計算了江西省森林碳匯的價值量。依據(jù)江西森林的狀況,推算江西省2020年森林蓄積量為7.5億m3,以此計算,得出在2010到2020年期間,森林年均碳匯能力可達(dá)到為31.411MtC。如果以68.3元/t C價位計算,則這期間的年均森林碳匯經(jīng)濟(jì)價值達(dá)21.45億元；如果以305元/t C價位估算,其經(jīng)濟(jì)價值達(dá)95.80億元；如以1024.5元/t C價格計算,其經(jīng)濟(jì)價值達(dá)321.65億元。 再次,綜合運(yùn)用自然資源和環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論等相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論,在考察一般市場價值形成過程,結(jié)合實際問卷調(diào)查,304位居(或市)民調(diào)查、72家企業(yè)需求調(diào)查,52戶林農(nóng)與46個林場供給問卷調(diào)查,重點(diǎn)探討森林碳匯的供給和需求,以及價格及形成條件和市場創(chuàng)建障礙等。構(gòu)建了不同情景下的供給和需求函數(shù)。在不同情景下,碳匯交易的價格會發(fā)生變動：自愿情景下,需求曲線有較大的彈性,價格均衡點(diǎn)(Qo,Po)為(87553.03,23)；當(dāng)有激勵和引導(dǎo)機(jī)制的政策時,曲線會向右移動,價格均衡點(diǎn)(Qo,Po)為(105873.47,24.02),價格升高時,交易量增加；在征稅情景下,個人和企業(yè)的對碳匯的需求曲線幾乎是一條豎線,需求更趨向于剛性,價格均衡點(diǎn)(Qo,Po)為(67176.05,14.75)。在不同情景下,碳匯林(地)使用權(quán)的流轉(zhuǎn)交易價格與供給和需求量的均衡：自愿情景下的價格均衡點(diǎn)(Qo,P0)為(1545,695.5)；激勵情景下的價格均衡點(diǎn)(Qo,P0)為(4698,771.56)；征稅情景下的價格均衡點(diǎn)(Qo,P0)為(2518.5,716.52)。在構(gòu)建森林碳匯的供給函數(shù)和需求函數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合南方森林產(chǎn)權(quán)交易市場2011年12月份交易的數(shù)據(jù),對價格均衡模型進(jìn)行實證研究,得到森林碳匯的價格和碳匯林(地)的價格。在林木砍伐之前,森林經(jīng)營與森林碳匯經(jīng)營相似,無林地的價格為1140元/hm2；當(dāng)流轉(zhuǎn)的面積保持不變時,有林地流轉(zhuǎn)的平均價格是4308元/hm2；所以,碳匯林(地)使用權(quán)流轉(zhuǎn)價格區(qū)間為1140元/hm2～4308元/hm2。森林活立木蓄積的價格是276.5元/m3,如果森林碳匯的生產(chǎn)與銷售相當(dāng)于林木砍伐之前的情況,通過森林蓄積量擴(kuò)展法轉(zhuǎn)換計算,得到森林碳匯的價格是230.04元/t C； 最后,結(jié)合森林碳匯計量和交易價格均衡過程研究,設(shè)計了適應(yīng)江西森林碳匯發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略,探討了鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)碳基金的運(yùn)作與管理模式。
[Abstract]:Climate change is one of the most important global environmental problems nowadays, which directly affects all natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems. The negative impact of global climate change is a major threat to mankind and a great challenge to mankind. Forest has a unique function and position in climate change. Many public services provided by forest ecosystems have contributed greatly to mankind. However, forest owners have not received corresponding returns because of the externality of forest ecological value. How to quantify forest ecological value and reflect it to forest owners or living beings Forest is the largest organic carbon pool on land, and the growth of trees is also a process of CO2 absorption. This process can effectively reduce the atmospheric CO2 concentration. How to quantify the forest carbon sink and its value under the conditions of global climate change and reflect it To form an effective price mechanism in the profit function of the owner or producer is one of the focuses in the academic circles.
Firstly, this paper briefly describes the current climate change background, on this basis, according to the KAYA formula to build a low-carbon economic model, the model results are as follows: in 2007, Jiangxi Province's carbon emissions are 142 million tons per year, per capita carbon emissions are 3.25 tons per person per year; using the model to calculate Jiangxi forest vegetation offset the region's carbon emissions of 0.26 billion tons. The contribution rate to the development of low-carbon economy in Jiangxi Province was 18.7%. Then, the forest carbon storage and carbon sink were calculated by using the method of forest stock expansion. On the basis of 0.03 m3/hm2 and considering the influence of various factors, the forest carbon storage in Jiangxi Province in 2020 was estimated to be 901.709 *106 t. From 2010 to 2020, the total carbon sink potential of Jiangxi forests was 314.112 *106 t, and the annual average carbon sink capacity was 31.411 *106 t.
Secondly, this paper studies the theory of value assessment and the economic characteristics of forest carbon sequestration, and obtains the evaluation model of forest carbon sequestration value. Combined with the forest carbon sequestration measurement method, the value of forest carbon sequestration in Jiangxi Province is calculated. The average annual carbon sink capacity of the forest could reach 31.411 MtC. If calculated at 68.3 yuan/t C price, the annual economic value of the forest carbon sink would reach 2.145 billion yuan; if estimated at 305 yuan/t C price, its economic value would reach 9.580 billion yuan; if calculated at 1024.5 yuan/t C price, its economic value would reach 32.165 billion yuan.
Thirdly, using the theories of natural resources and environment economics, micro-economics and sustainable development theory, this paper investigates the formation process of general market value, combines the actual questionnaire survey, 304 residents (or city) survey, 72 enterprises demand survey, 52 farmers and 46 forest farms supply questionnaire survey, focusing on forest carbon sink. In different scenarios, the price of carbon sink trading will change: in voluntary scenarios, the demand curve has greater flexibility, the price equilibrium point (Qo, Po) is (87553.03, 23); when there is an incentive and guidance mechanism of government. In the case of taxation, the demand curve for carbon sinks of individuals and enterprises is almost a vertical line, and the demand tends to be more rigid, and the price equilibrium point (Qo, Po) is (67176.05, 14.75). In different scenarios, the right to use carbon sinks (land) is granted. Equilibrium of price and supply and demand in circulation transaction: price equilibrium point (Qo, P 0) in voluntary scenario is (1545, 695.5); price equilibrium point (Qo, P 0) in incentive scenario is (4698, 771.56); price equilibrium point (Qo, P 0 0) in taxation scenario is (2518.5, 716.52). On the basis of constructing supply function and demand function of forest carbon sink, the conclusion is made. Based on the data of the South Forest Property Exchange Market in December 2011, the price equilibrium model was used to study the price of forest carbon sink and carbon sink forest (land). The average price of carbon sequestration is 4308 yuan / hm2; therefore, the price range of carbon sequestration forest (land) right of use is 1 140 yuan / hm2 ~ 4308 yuan / hm2. The price of forest standing stock is 276.5 yuan / m3. If the production and sale of forest carbon sequestration is equivalent to the situation before deforestation, forest carbon sequestration can be calculated by the method of forest stock expansion. The price is 230.04 yuan /t C;
Finally, combined with the research on the process of forest carbon sink measurement and transaction price equilibrium, the strategy of adapting to the development of forest carbon sink in Jiangxi Province was designed, and the operation and management mode of carbon fund in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone was discussed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F326.2

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本文編號：2225393