【摘要】：近些年來，“貨幣超發(fā)”問題已成為社會(huì)各界一個(gè)爭論的熱點(diǎn)。相應(yīng)的，流動(dòng)性過剩則成了描述中國經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)狀的關(guān)鍵詞之一。目前的研究學(xué)者普遍認(rèn)為流動(dòng)性過剩是指實(shí)際的廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量持續(xù)并且顯著地超出社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出所需要的貨幣數(shù)量�；诖藶榱藴y量流動(dòng)性過剩與否，本文首先介紹了幾種測量流動(dòng)性的理論和方法，然后從貨幣需求的角度來進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,通過構(gòu)造廣義貨幣需求模型在與實(shí)際的廣義貨幣供給量進(jìn)行比較，從而得出流動(dòng)性是否過剩。實(shí)證過程中本文選取2001年第1季度到2010年第4季度的數(shù)據(jù)作為原始樣本，模擬出我國廣義貨幣需求模型，然后選取2011年第1季度到第4季度數(shù)據(jù)作為分析樣本，對該時(shí)期的流動(dòng)性過剩狀況進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：在分析樣本期內(nèi)，我國各個(gè)季度均存在流動(dòng)性過剩的情況，廣義貨幣過剩總量7.21萬億元人民幣，每季度平均過剩1.8萬億元人民幣。而從單個(gè)季度來看，，第一季度和第三季度流動(dòng)性過剩的程度。 通過前面的實(shí)證結(jié)論，本文又從流動(dòng)性過剩在我國的表現(xiàn)、影響進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)分析,然后得出了造成貨幣超發(fā)是由于多重原因共同作用形成的結(jié)論。以間接融資為主導(dǎo)的金融體系是流動(dòng)性過剩的制度原因，高儲蓄率與高投資率是導(dǎo)致流動(dòng)性過剩的經(jīng)濟(jì)原因，人民幣升值預(yù)期、外匯儲備激增、匯率體制僵化共同造成的貨幣被動(dòng)性投放是流動(dòng)性過剩的貨幣條件。 最后，根據(jù)流動(dòng)性過剩形成的原因，本文分別提出了化解流動(dòng)性過剩的政策建議。要化解當(dāng)前我國的流動(dòng)性過剩問題，應(yīng)從制度、政策、運(yùn)行機(jī)制等各個(gè)方面進(jìn)行改進(jìn)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the issue of "currency overshoot" has become a hot issue in all walks of life. Accordingly, excess liquidity has become one of the key words to describe the current state of China's economy. Current researchers generally believe that excess liquidity refers to the amount of money that the actual broad money supply continues to exceed the amount of money needed by the social economic output. Based on this, in order to measure excess liquidity, this paper first introduces several theories and methods to measure liquidity, and then carries out empirical research from the perspective of monetary demand. By constructing the generalized money demand model and comparing it with the actual generalized money supply, we can find out whether there is excess liquidity. In the empirical process, this paper selects the data from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2010 as the original sample, simulates the generalized money demand model of our country, and then selects the data from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2011 as the analysis sample. The empirical results show that there is excess liquidity in every quarter of China during the sample period, and the total amount of excess money in broad sense is RMB 7.21 trillion yuan. An average surplus of 1.8 trillion yuan per quarter. And from a single quarter, the first quarter and the third quarter of excess liquidity. Through the previous empirical conclusions, this paper makes a systematic analysis of the influence of excess liquidity in China, and then draws the conclusion that the currency overcirculation is caused by the joint action of multiple reasons. The financial system dominated by indirect financing is the institutional cause of excess liquidity, and the high savings rate and high investment rate are the economic reasons leading to excess liquidity. Currency passivity caused by rigid exchange rate system is the monetary condition of excess liquidity. Finally, according to the causes of excess liquidity, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to resolve the excess liquidity. In order to solve the problem of excess liquidity in our country, we should improve the system, policy, operation mechanism and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F822.2

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