發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-01 13:57

【摘要】：貨幣政策是以總量調(diào)控為主的重要的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理手段，貨幣當(dāng)局更多關(guān)注經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體運(yùn)行情況，制定和實(shí)施統(tǒng)一的貨幣政策。統(tǒng)一的貨幣政策是以貨幣區(qū)內(nèi)各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的同質(zhì)性為前提的，如果區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不均衡，統(tǒng)一的貨幣政策就會(huì)產(chǎn)生區(qū)域效應(yīng)非對(duì)稱性問題。貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)非對(duì)稱性在降低貨幣政策整體效應(yīng)的同時(shí)，也將進(jìn)一步拉大區(qū)域間經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的差距。對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)非對(duì)稱性的存在、度量和成因的研究是提高貨幣政策效應(yīng)和促進(jìn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)均衡發(fā)展的重要研究課題。 論文依據(jù)我國(guó)各省市場(chǎng)化指數(shù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的同步性，用系統(tǒng)聚類和K-Mean聚類的方法把我國(guó)31個(gè)省份劃分為三大區(qū)域：經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)區(qū)域、經(jīng)濟(jì)欠發(fā)達(dá)區(qū)域和經(jīng)濟(jì)不發(fā)達(dá)區(qū)域。對(duì)貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)非對(duì)稱性的相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行了界定。對(duì)貨幣政策有效性理論、最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論和貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制理論進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)單論述，這三個(gè)理論分別是本文研究的前提、初步判斷的依據(jù)和成因分析的基礎(chǔ)。 在對(duì)我國(guó)中央銀行體制和統(tǒng)一貨幣政策實(shí)踐進(jìn)行評(píng)述后，分析了我國(guó)統(tǒng)一貨幣政策必須面對(duì)的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)金融發(fā)展差異的現(xiàn)實(shí)約束�；谧顑�(yōu)貨幣區(qū)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的分析認(rèn)為我國(guó)目前還不是最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)，依據(jù)最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論初步判斷我國(guó)存在貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)非對(duì)稱性。以1985-2010年的年度數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，采用平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、VAR和SVAR模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和預(yù)測(cè)方差分解等實(shí)證技術(shù)對(duì)我國(guó)東、中、西三個(gè)大區(qū)域貨幣政策效應(yīng)的非對(duì)稱性進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)，檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果認(rèn)為我國(guó)貨幣政策存在區(qū)域效應(yīng)非對(duì)稱性。貨幣政策沖擊下，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)的東部區(qū)域產(chǎn)出效應(yīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出經(jīng)濟(jì)欠發(fā)達(dá)和不發(fā)達(dá)的中西部區(qū)域，東部區(qū)域價(jià)格對(duì)貨幣政策沖擊的響應(yīng)卻小于中西部區(qū)域，說明東部區(qū)域貨幣政策效應(yīng)優(yōu)于中西部區(qū)域。以2004.01-2011.03的季度數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，對(duì)我國(guó)三個(gè)大區(qū)域貨幣政策效應(yīng)非對(duì)稱性進(jìn)行了補(bǔ)充和佐證性的再次檢驗(yàn)，檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果顯示貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)強(qiáng)度和時(shí)滯存在非對(duì)稱性。再次基于同樣的年度樣本對(duì)31個(gè)省的貨幣政策省際效應(yīng)非對(duì)稱性進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果認(rèn)為省際間存在貨幣政策效應(yīng)非對(duì)稱性。 對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)主體逐一分析，尋找貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)非對(duì)稱性產(chǎn)生的原因。首先對(duì)中央銀行統(tǒng)一貨幣政策工具操作的區(qū)域效應(yīng)非對(duì)稱進(jìn)行分析。再基于平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、VAR模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和狀態(tài)空間模型等實(shí)證技術(shù)檢驗(yàn)我國(guó)基礎(chǔ)貨幣統(tǒng)一調(diào)控下區(qū)域貨幣供給效應(yīng)的非對(duì)稱性，檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果顯示我國(guó)基礎(chǔ)貨幣統(tǒng)一調(diào)控下，，東部區(qū)域貨幣供給效應(yīng)大于中西部區(qū)域，東部獲得了比中西部更多的貨幣供應(yīng)量。另外，東部區(qū)域金融市場(chǎng)、金融機(jī)構(gòu)以及企業(yè)的發(fā)展水平較高、結(jié)構(gòu)完善，居民家庭收入、消費(fèi)水平高，這些因素都有利于貨幣政策的順暢傳導(dǎo)。相比之下，中西部區(qū)域金融市場(chǎng)、金融機(jī)構(gòu)和企業(yè)的發(fā)展落后，居民收入和消費(fèi)水平較低，不利于貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)。基于截面數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)與理論分析結(jié)論一致，認(rèn)為區(qū)域金融體系、企業(yè)、居民家庭等的差異是產(chǎn)生貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)非對(duì)稱性的原因。 基于成因分析，提出針對(duì)性的政策建議：政府行為應(yīng)在我國(guó)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)金融均衡發(fā)展中科學(xué)定位；依據(jù)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)金融發(fā)展水平和貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)的相近程度，調(diào)整中國(guó)人民銀行大區(qū)分行的管轄范圍；充分發(fā)揮中國(guó)人民銀行分支機(jī)構(gòu)的作用；采取適度差別的區(qū)域貨幣政策；完善我國(guó)中西部區(qū)域金融機(jī)構(gòu)和金融市場(chǎng)體系，加大中西部區(qū)域企業(yè)改革，提高中西部區(qū)域居民的收入水平。配合財(cái)政政策、產(chǎn)業(yè)政策和對(duì)外貿(mào)易政策、收入分配政策，加快我國(guó)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)均衡發(fā)展，把我國(guó)逐步構(gòu)建成為最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)。 本論文有圖71幅，表87個(gè)，參考文獻(xiàn)224篇。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy is an important macroeconomic management method based on total amount control. Monetary authorities pay more attention to the overall operation of the economy and formulate and implement a unified monetary policy. The asymmetry of regional effect of monetary policy will further widen the gap between regions while reducing the overall effect of monetary policy. The important research topic of balanced economic development.
Based on the synchronization of market index and economic cycle in China's provinces, 31 provinces are divided into three regions by means of systematic clustering and K-Mean clustering: economically developed region, economically underdeveloped region and economically underdeveloped region. Policy effectiveness theory, Optimal Monetary Zone Theory and monetary policy transmission mechanism theory are briefly discussed. These three theories are the premise of this study, the basis of preliminary judgment and the basis of cause analysis.
After reviewing China's central banking system and the practice of unified monetary policy, this paper analyzes the practical constraints that China's unified monetary policy must face in terms of regional economic and financial development differences. The asymmetry of regional effect of monetary policy is tested by stationarity test, Granger causality test, VAR and SVAR models, impulse response function and forecast difference decomposition with the annual data from 1985 to 2010. Under the impact of monetary policy, the output effect of the developed eastern region far exceeds that of the underdeveloped and underdeveloped central and Western regions, while the response of the eastern region price to the impact of monetary policy is smaller than that of the central and Western regions. The quarterly data from January 2004 to March 2011 are used as samples to supplement and re-test the asymmetry of monetary policy effects in three large regions in China. The results show that the intensity and time lag of monetary policy regional effects are asymmetric. Again, based on the same annual sample, the inter-provincial effects of monetary policy in 31 provinces are asymmetric. The empirical test shows that the monetary policy effect is asymmetrical among provinces.
This paper first analyzes the asymmetric regional effects of the central bank's unified operation of monetary policy instruments, and then examines the basis of China by empirical techniques such as stationarity test, VAR model, impulse response function and state space model. The test results show that under the unified monetary control, the effect of money supply in the eastern region is greater than that in the central and Western regions, and the eastern region gets more money supply than the central and Western regions. In contrast, the development of financial markets, financial institutions and enterprises in the central and western regions is backward, and the income and consumption level of residents are low, which is not conducive to the transmission of monetary policy. It is believed that the asymmetry of regional effect of monetary policy is caused by the differences of regional financial system, enterprises and households.
Based on the analysis of the causes, this paper puts forward some pertinent policy suggestions: government behavior should be scientifically positioned in the balanced development of regional economy and finance in China; adjust the jurisdiction of the large-scale branches of the People's Bank of China according to the similarity between the level of regional economic and financial development and the transmission effect of monetary policy; give full play to the branches of the People's Bank We should adopt a moderately differentiated regional monetary policy, improve the financial institutions and financial market system in the central and western regions of China, intensify the reform of enterprises in the central and Western regions, and raise the income level of residents in the central and Western regions. It will gradually build our country into the best currency area.
This paper has 71 figures, 87 tables and 224 references.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F224

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