【摘要】：進(jìn)入21世紀(jì),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行擺脫了改革開放初期以“高增長(zhǎng)、高通貨膨脹、高波動(dòng)”為特征的大起大落局面,進(jìn)入“高增長(zhǎng)、低通貨膨脹、平穩(wěn)化”的軌道,無論從水平還是波動(dòng)幅度來衡量,我國(guó)通貨膨脹處于由高向低轉(zhuǎn)變的態(tài)勢(shì)。但另一方面通貨膨脹的持續(xù)性或者慣性仍然較高。 長(zhǎng)期形成的通貨膨脹持續(xù)性特征,現(xiàn)階段勞動(dòng)力、資源能源約束和流動(dòng)性過剩形成的通脹環(huán)境,都對(duì)我國(guó)的貨幣政策構(gòu)成一定挑戰(zhàn)。研究這些問題不僅是為了檢驗(yàn)新凱恩斯菲利普斯曲線的適用性,也有利于針對(duì)我國(guó)不同于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的通貨膨脹環(huán)境的現(xiàn)實(shí),對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)和政策制定提供政策建議。 為回答上述問題,論文大致沿著菲利普斯曲線、貨幣政策規(guī)則和宏觀金融模型三個(gè)方向,來分析短期通脹動(dòng)態(tài)與貨幣政策之間關(guān)系。菲利普斯曲線揭示了理性預(yù)期和適應(yīng)性預(yù)期在通脹動(dòng)態(tài)變化中的作用機(jī)理；貨幣政策規(guī)則考察了貨幣政策工具在產(chǎn)出、通脹等不同政策目標(biāo)之間進(jìn)行權(quán)衡的政策效應(yīng)；宏觀金融模型刻畫了宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量與收益率曲線之間的動(dòng)態(tài)聯(lián)系,從中提煉出收益率曲線的水平和斜率因子蘊(yùn)含著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和通脹預(yù)期的信息。 較高的通貨膨脹持續(xù)性是我國(guó)通脹預(yù)期不穩(wěn)定、貨幣政策可信度和有效性不足、微觀價(jià)格粘性程度較高的集中反映。運(yùn)用混合式新凱恩斯菲利普斯曲線研究發(fā)現(xiàn),產(chǎn)出缺口相對(duì)于邊際勞動(dòng)力成本對(duì)我國(guó)通脹動(dòng)態(tài)變化影響更顯著。微觀定價(jià)結(jié)構(gòu)中前瞻成分比后顧成分所占比重大,顯示通脹預(yù)期具有相對(duì)重要性。泰勒規(guī)則和最優(yōu)貨幣政策規(guī)則都反映我國(guó)貨幣政策目標(biāo)中,通脹和利率平滑所占權(quán)重相對(duì)于產(chǎn)出缺口更重要,但利率對(duì)通脹反應(yīng)力度不足,穩(wěn)定通脹預(yù)期作用不顯著,是導(dǎo)致我國(guó)通脹持續(xù)性較高的一個(gè)重要原因。宏觀金融模型顯示利率期限結(jié)構(gòu)中的水平因子在一定程度上反映了通脹預(yù)期,表明從短期到長(zhǎng)期的利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制基本形成。 由于我國(guó)通脹持續(xù)性較高,使得反通脹的成本,即犧牲率并沒有隨著通脹水平下降而降低,反而有所增加。本文提出解決上述問題的政策建議：為了避免貨幣政策對(duì)食品和能源等要素價(jià)格暫時(shí)性上漲反應(yīng)過度而造成不必要的產(chǎn)出波動(dòng),應(yīng)當(dāng)在波動(dòng)性和持續(xù)性特征基礎(chǔ)上,建立我國(guó)的核心通脹指標(biāo)。從長(zhǎng)期考慮,通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制是完善我國(guó)貨幣政策框架的一個(gè)重要選擇,以達(dá)到增進(jìn)貨幣政策的可信度,穩(wěn)定通貨膨脹預(yù)期的目的。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, China's economic operation has got rid of the ups and downs characterized by "high growth, high inflation, high fluctuation" in the early stage of reform and opening up, and entered the track of "high growth, low inflation, stable". China's inflation is changing from high to low, whether measured by the level or the range of fluctuations. On the other hand, the persistence or inertia of inflation is still relatively high. The persistent characteristics of inflation, the current labor force, resource and energy constraints and the inflation environment formed by excess liquidity all pose a certain challenge to China's monetary policy. The purpose of studying these problems is not only to test the applicability of the new Keynesian Phillips curve, but also to provide policy advice for macroeconomic prediction and policy making according to the reality of inflation environment in China, which is different from that of developed countries. In order to answer the above questions, the paper analyzes the relationship between short-term inflation dynamics and monetary policy in the following three directions: Phillips curve, monetary policy rules and macro-financial model. The Phillips curve reveals the mechanism of rational expectation and adaptive expectation in the dynamic change of inflation, and the monetary policy rules examine the policy effects of monetary policy tools on the tradeoff between different policy objectives such as output, inflation, etc. The macro financial model depicts the dynamic relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, from which the level and slope factors of the yield curve contain the information of economic growth and inflation expectation. The persistence of higher inflation is a concentrated reflection of the instability of inflation expectations, the lack of credibility and effectiveness of monetary policy, and the high degree of stickiness of micro price in China. By using the hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve, it is found that the output gap has a more significant effect on the dynamic change of inflation than marginal labor cost in China. The foresight component has a larger proportion than the backside component in the micro pricing structure, which indicates that inflation expectation is of relative importance. The Taylor rule and the optimal monetary policy rule both reflect that the weight of inflation and interest rate smoothing is more important than the output gap, but the interest rate has insufficient response to inflation, and the effect of stabilizing inflation expectation is not significant. It is an important reason for the persistence of inflation in China. The macro financial model shows that the horizontal factors in the term structure of interest rate reflect inflation expectation to a certain extent and indicate that the transmission mechanism of interest rate is basically formed from short term to long term. Because of the high persistence of inflation in our country, the cost of anti-inflation, that is, the rate of sacrifice, does not decrease with the decline of inflation, but increases. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions to solve the above problems: in order to avoid unnecessary output fluctuations caused by monetary policy overreacting to temporary price increases of food and energy, we should base on the characteristics of volatility and persistence. Establish our country's core inflation index. In the long run, inflation targeting system is an important choice to perfect the framework of monetary policy in China, in order to enhance the credibility of monetary policy and stabilize inflation expectations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F822.5;F822.0

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