【摘要】：自2002年中國加入WTO后,中美貿(mào)易順差不斷擴(kuò)大,以美國為首的西方國家近年來頻頻以人民幣匯率被操縱為由責(zé)難中國,將中美貿(mào)易失衡問題歸咎于人民幣匯率過低,認(rèn)為人民幣匯率被人為操縱而嚴(yán)重低估直接導(dǎo)致了美國巨額貿(mào)易逆差的持續(xù)。以此為由,美國不斷地對(duì)中國施壓,要求中國政府對(duì)人民幣匯率做出調(diào)整,逼迫人民幣大幅度升值。2011年,美國施壓人民幣升值又掀高潮,人民幣匯率問題再次成為中美兩國關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)之一。 中美持續(xù)性的貿(mào)易失衡嚴(yán)重影響了兩國正常的貿(mào)易往來,很不利于兩國的經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定和發(fā)展。本文對(duì)人民幣匯率與中美貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析,研究人民幣匯率對(duì)中美貿(mào)易收支的長短期影響,探尋人民幣升值是否能有效地促進(jìn)中美貿(mào)易平衡以及其它對(duì)中美貿(mào)易收支產(chǎn)生影響的因素,為緩解中美兩國貿(mào)易不平衡的政策選擇提供依據(jù),這對(duì)中美兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易的和諧發(fā)展有重要的意義。 1994年以前中國存在雙重匯率,1994年人民幣匯率統(tǒng)一,新的人民幣對(duì)美元的官方匯率大幅度貶值為1美元兌換8.7元人民幣,在這之后的十年間,人民幣匯率一直保持穩(wěn)定,固定在1美元兌換8.28人民幣這一水平左右,但在1994年至1997年間中國貿(mào)易順差卻顯著增加,隨后貿(mào)易順差總額時(shí)而增加時(shí)而減少；而1994年后中美貿(mào)易順差便逐漸擴(kuò)大,2002年后中美貿(mào)易順差以更快的速度迅猛增加。 2005年央行推出新的匯率政策,人民幣匯率不再單一盯住美元,形成更富彈性的人民幣匯率制度。匯改當(dāng)天人民幣匯率為1美元對(duì)換8.11元人民幣,升值2.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),自此,人民幣進(jìn)入升值通道。2006年5月15日人民幣對(duì)美元匯率“破8”,2008年5月人民幣對(duì)美元匯率“破7”,由于金融危機(jī)的影響,從2008年下半年至2010年5月問,人民幣停止了升值的步伐,然而人民幣對(duì)美元匯率維持在1美元對(duì)換6.82元人民幣左右的水平近2年后,人民幣匯率再度升值,2010年12月人民幣對(duì)美元匯率為1美元對(duì)換6.6227元人民幣,2011年12月人民幣對(duì)美元匯率為1美元對(duì)換6.3009元人民幣。我們注意到,在2006-2008年間人民幣匯率升值較快,但此期間的中國貿(mào)易順差迅速增加,2006年貿(mào)易順差為1774.6億美元,2007年為2622億美元,而到了2008年竟然達(dá)到2964.6億美元,但這之后,貿(mào)易順差有所減少；再看中美貿(mào)易收支在2006-2008年間也逐步擴(kuò)大,卻在2009年人民幣匯率維持相對(duì)穩(wěn)定的期間內(nèi)有所下降,而隨后又繼續(xù)攀升。 傳統(tǒng)的貿(mào)易理論認(rèn)為貨幣貶值改善貿(mào)易收支,貨幣升值惡化貿(mào)易收支,但根據(jù)以上數(shù)據(jù)我們發(fā)現(xiàn)中美貿(mào)易收支失衡并沒有因?yàn)槿嗣駧诺纳刀玫礁挠^,從人民幣進(jìn)入升值通道以來,中國對(duì)美國貿(mào)易順差依然保持著擴(kuò)大的趨勢(shì),中美間貿(mào)易順差并沒有因?yàn)槿嗣駧诺纳刀鸩娇s小。那么為什么人民幣的升值沒有減少中國對(duì)美國的順差,人民幣匯率對(duì)中美貿(mào)易順差有什么影響,這些問題都值得我們探討和研究。 外國關(guān)于匯率與貿(mào)易平衡的理論有價(jià)格-現(xiàn)金自動(dòng)調(diào)節(jié)機(jī)制、馬歇爾-勒納條件、J曲線效應(yīng)以及麥金農(nóng)匯率和貿(mào)易平衡理論等。價(jià)格-現(xiàn)金自動(dòng)調(diào)節(jié)機(jī)制是休謨提出的,他所處的時(shí)代為金本位時(shí)代,他認(rèn)為黃金的自由流出流入能夠自動(dòng)平衡貿(mào)易收支,無需國家對(duì)匯率進(jìn)行干預(yù)；馬歇爾-勒納條件指出,進(jìn)口商品的價(jià)格需求彈性和出口商品的價(jià)格需求彈性的絕對(duì)值的和大于1,則貶值才能夠改善對(duì)外貿(mào)易收支,而J曲線效應(yīng)認(rèn)為馬歇爾-勒納條件即使成立,但在短期內(nèi),貶值也不一定就能使得一國的貿(mào)易收支得到改善；吸收分析法將一國的產(chǎn)量、國民收入、支出納入?yún)R率對(duì)貿(mào)易平衡關(guān)系中考慮；麥金農(nóng)的匯率與貿(mào)易平衡理論,則結(jié)合了彈性分析法和吸收分析法,分別對(duì)封閉經(jīng)濟(jì)和開放經(jīng)濟(jì)兩種情形下,匯率對(duì)貿(mào)易的影響做了研究。 如今人民幣的升值與30年前日元升值相仿佛,美國對(duì)人民幣施壓和30多年前對(duì)日本的所作所為也頗為相似。在探尋人民幣匯率與中美貿(mào)易收支關(guān)系時(shí),我們有必要對(duì)日元升值的歷史背景及影響進(jìn)行回顧。日本自二戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長,對(duì)外貿(mào)易迅速擴(kuò)大,日本生產(chǎn)的工業(yè)品充斥著歐美市場(chǎng)；而美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長停滯,失業(yè)率上升,經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目逆差嚴(yán)重,對(duì)外貿(mào)易出現(xiàn)失衡的情況,特別是美國對(duì)日本的貿(mào)易逆差極為嚴(yán)重,于是美國便開始干預(yù)日本出口政策,迫使日本提高日元對(duì)美元匯率,將日美貿(mào)易的失衡歸于日元對(duì)美元匯率被嚴(yán)重低估,企圖通過日元的升值來緩解曰美貿(mào)易的失衡。然而,事實(shí)并非如美國所愿,日元大幅升值后,日本對(duì)美國貿(mào)易順差不降反增,日美貿(mào)易的不平衡根本沒有得到糾正,而大幅的升值對(duì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的打擊卻是災(zāi)難性的,日元由于定價(jià)過高,日本經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入低谷,至今,日本經(jīng)濟(jì)都未從“失落的十年”中恢復(fù)過來。通過日元升值歷史我們看到,日元升值并沒有減少日本對(duì)美國的貿(mào)易順差,卻給日本經(jīng)濟(jì)沉重的打擊,日本的經(jīng)歷和慘痛教訓(xùn)值得中國警醒,日本的悲劇也絕不能在中國上演。 為研究人民幣匯率與中美貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系,本文對(duì)人民幣匯率制度和中國貿(mào)易收支做了回顧,將文字圖表相結(jié)合,分別對(duì)四個(gè)階段的人民幣匯率與中國貿(mào)易收支關(guān)系做了定性分析研究。 接下來本文選用了1995年至2011年的月度經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用了協(xié)整檢驗(yàn),誤差修正模型以及格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)方法,通過定量分析研究方法探尋人民幣匯率與中美貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系。 本文共分為七章,各個(gè)章節(jié)的安排如下： 第一章為緒論,主要介紹了文章的選題背景與意義,闡述了人民幣匯率和貿(mào)易額的大致走勢(shì)和現(xiàn)狀；并且介紹了文章的內(nèi)容重點(diǎn)、結(jié)構(gòu)框架以及創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)和存在的不足。 第二章為匯率與貿(mào)易平衡理論和文獻(xiàn)綜述,主要介紹了價(jià)格一現(xiàn)金自動(dòng)調(diào)節(jié)機(jī)制、馬歇爾一勒納條件、J曲線效應(yīng)以及麥金農(nóng)匯率和貿(mào)易平衡理論。在本章文獻(xiàn)綜述這一節(jié)主要有三個(gè)部分,分別為國外關(guān)于匯率與貿(mào)易收支關(guān)系的研究、人民幣匯率與中國貿(mào)易收支關(guān)系的研究以及人民幣匯率與中美貿(mào)易收支關(guān)系的研究。 第三章主要研究70年代開始的日元大幅升值與日美貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系,闡述了日元升值的背景以及日元升值給日本經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來的影響,這一部分的研究探尋以給中國一些借鑒和啟示。 第四章和第五章分別是通過定性和定量的方法來研究人民幣匯率和中美貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系。第四章中我們將文字圖表相結(jié)合對(duì)人民幣匯率與中國貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系進(jìn)行定性分析,結(jié)果表明人民幣匯率對(duì)中美貿(mào)易收支影響有限；第五章采用了1995年至2011年的月度經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用實(shí)證方法對(duì)人民幣匯率與中美貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了研究分析,協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果顯示人民幣匯率與中美貿(mào)易收支存在長期均衡關(guān)系,但是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)協(xié)整方程的系數(shù)說明人民幣匯率對(duì)于中美貿(mào)易收支的影響遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于美國實(shí)際GDP對(duì)中美貿(mào)易收支的影響,我們從誤差修正模型中得出中美貿(mào)易收支存在輕微的J曲線效應(yīng),而格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)表明了人民幣匯率與中美貿(mào)易收支間不存在因果關(guān)系。以上運(yùn)用計(jì)量手段分析得出的結(jié)論也進(jìn)一步證明人民幣升值并不能解決中美貿(mào)易失衡問題。 第六章為影響中美貿(mào)易收支的其它因素。既然人民幣匯率對(duì)中美貿(mào)易收支的影響十分有限,本章進(jìn)一步探討了除匯率以外其它影響中美貿(mào)易的因素。通過對(duì)中美兩國儲(chǔ)蓄一投資缺口以及貿(mào)易差額占GDP比重作圖比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)儲(chǔ)蓄一投資缺口和貿(mào)易差額占GDP比重的趨勢(shì)線幾乎趨于一致,說明美國的過度消費(fèi)和過低的儲(chǔ)蓄率是近二十年美國貿(mào)易赤字的原因之一,同時(shí)世界產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和美國對(duì)中國的進(jìn)口限制都是引發(fā)中美貿(mào)易失衡的因素；而中美數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)差異使得美國過高地估計(jì)了美國對(duì)中國的貿(mào)易逆差。 第七章為政策建議,人民幣匯率升值并不能有效地平衡中美貿(mào)易收支,文章提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議,中國不僅需敦促美國要逐步地改善對(duì)中國出口的管制政策和提高美國的儲(chǔ)蓄率,同時(shí)中國也要擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需,改善中美貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu),加快人民幣匯率體制的改革。 本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)有三點(diǎn)：一、本文采用文字、數(shù)據(jù)和圖表,通過定性和定量結(jié)合的方法對(duì)人民幣匯率和中美貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析研究,得出的結(jié)論表明人民幣匯率對(duì)中美貿(mào)易收支影響有限,現(xiàn)階段人民幣升值并不能促進(jìn)中美貿(mào)易收支的平衡。二、本文采用了1995年-2011年的月度經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行建模分析,克服了選取年度或季度數(shù)據(jù)造成的樣本點(diǎn)過少的缺點(diǎn)。三、很多研究中只討論匯率與貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系,但本文對(duì)影響中美貿(mào)易收支的其它因素進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)深入的討論。
[Abstract]:Since China joined the WTO in 2002, the trade surplus between China and the United States has been enlarging. In recent years, the western countries led by the United States frequently blamed China for manipulating the exchange rate of RMB. They blamed the trade imbalance between China and the United States on the low exchange rate of RMB. They believed that the manipulation of the exchange rate of RMB and the serious undervaluation of the exchange rate of RMB directly led to the huge trade deficit of the United States. For this reason, the United States has been pressing China to adjust the exchange rate of the RMB, forcing the RMB to appreciate substantially. In 2011, the United States pressure on the appreciation of the RMB set off a climax, the RMB exchange rate issue has once again become a focus of attention between China and the United States.
The persistent trade imbalance between China and the United States seriously affects the normal trade exchanges between the two countries, which is not conducive to the economic stability and development of the two countries. Easy balance and other factors affecting Sino-US trade balance provide the basis for policy choices to alleviate Sino-US trade imbalance, which is of great significance to the harmonious development of Sino-US economic and trade.
Before 1994, there was a double exchange rate in China. In 1994, the exchange rate of RMB was unified. The official exchange rate of the new RMB was greatly depreciated to 8.7 RMB against the US dollar. During the following ten years, the exchange rate of RMB remained stable, fixed at the level of 8.28 RMB against the US dollar. However, the trade surplus increased significantly, and then the total trade surplus increased and decreased from time to time. The Sino-US trade surplus gradually expanded after 1994, and the Sino-US trade surplus increased rapidly after 2002.
In 2005, the central bank introduced a new exchange rate policy. The RMB exchange rate was no longer pegged to the US dollar alone, forming a more flexible exchange rate system. On the day of the exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate was 8.11 yuan to the US dollar, and the appreciation rate was 2.1 percentage points. Since then, the RMB has entered the appreciation channel. On May 15, 2006, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar "broke 8", and on May 5, 2008. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar "broke 7" in January. Due to the impact of the financial crisis, the RMB stopped appreciating from the second half of 2008 to May 2010. However, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar remained at the level of about 6.82 RMB against the US dollar for nearly two years, and the RMB exchange rate rose again. In December 2010, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 1. The exchange rate between the US dollar and the US dollar was 6.6227 yuan and 6.3009 yuan in December 2011. By $296.46 billion, the trade surplus had declined, and the balance of trade between China and the United States had gradually expanded between 2006 and 2008, but declined during the relatively stable period of the RMB exchange rate in 2009, and then continued to climb.
Traditional trade theory holds that currency depreciation improves trade balance and currency appreciation aggravates trade balance. However, according to the above data, we find that the imbalance of trade balance between China and the United States has not been improved because of the appreciation of the RMB. Since the RMB entered the appreciation channel, China's trade surplus with the United States has maintained an expanding trend, and the trade surplus between China and the United States has maintained an expanding trend. The trade surplus has not gradually narrowed because of the appreciation of the RMB. So why does the appreciation of the RMB not reduce China's surplus with the United States and what impact does the exchange rate of the RMB have on the trade surplus between China and the United States deserve our discussion and study.
Foreign theories on exchange rate and trade balance include price-cash automatic adjustment mechanism, Marshall-Lerner condition, J-curve effect and McKinnon's exchange rate and trade balance theory. The Marshall-Lerner condition points out that only when the absolute value of the elasticity of price demand of imported commodities and that of price demand of export commodities is greater than 1, the devaluation can improve the external trade balance. The J-curve effect holds that the Marshall-Lerner condition, even if it holds, will depreciate in the short run. It can not necessarily improve a country's trade balance; absorptive analysis takes the output, national income and expenditure of a country into account in the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance; McKinnon's exchange rate and trade balance theory combines the elasticity analysis method and absorption analysis method, respectively, in closed economy and open economy. The impact of rate on trade is studied.
The appreciation of the RMB today is similar to the appreciation of the Japanese yen 30 years ago, and the US pressure on the RMB is similar to what Japan did more than 30 years ago. With the rapid expansion of foreign trade and the filling of European and American markets with Japanese manufactured industrial goods, the United States, with stagnant economic growth, rising unemployment rate, a serious current account deficit and imbalances in foreign trade, especially the extremely serious trade deficit between the United States and Japan, began to intervene in Japan's export policy, forcing Japan to raise the yen-to-Japan ratio. The US dollar exchange rate attributes the trade imbalance between Japan and the US to a serious undervaluation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar in an attempt to alleviate the trade imbalance between Japan and the US through the appreciation of the Japanese yen. Japan's economy has not recovered from the "lost decade". Through the history of the appreciation of the yen, we can see that the appreciation of the yen did not reduce Japan's trade surplus with the United States, but gave a heavy blow to the Japanese economy. Experience and painful lessons deserve China's vigilance, and Japan's tragedy must never be staged in China.
In order to study the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance, this paper reviews the RMB exchange rate regime and China's trade balance, and makes a qualitative analysis of the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's trade balance in four stages by combining text and chart.
Next, this paper selects the monthly economic data from 1995 to 2011, uses co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test to explore the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance through quantitative analysis.
This article is divided into seven chapters. The chapters are arranged as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background and significance of the topic, expounds the general trend and current situation of RMB exchange rate and trade volume, and introduces the main content, structural framework, innovation and shortcomings of the article.
The second chapter is the exchange rate and trade balance theory and literature review, mainly introduces the price-cash automatic adjustment mechanism, Marshall-Lerner condition, J-curve effect and McKinnon exchange rate and trade balance theory. Research on the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's trade balance and the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China-US trade balance.
The third chapter mainly studies the relationship between the sharp appreciation of the yen and the trade balance between Japan and the United States since the 1970s, and expounds the background of the appreciation of the yen and its impact on the Japanese economy.
Chapter Four and Chapter Five study the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance through qualitative and quantitative methods respectively. In Chapter Four, we analyze the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's trade balance qualitatively by combining text and chart. The results show that RMB exchange rate has limited influence on Sino-US trade balance. Using monthly economic data from 1995 to 2011, this paper studies and analyzes the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance by empirical method. The co-integration test results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance. However, the coefficients of the standard co-integration equation show that the RMB exchange rate is related to Sino-US trade balance. The effect is far less than the effect of the real GDP of the United States on the trade balance between China and the United States. From the error correction model, we find that there is a slight J-curve effect on the trade balance between China and the United States. Granger causality test shows that there is no causal relationship between the exchange rate of RMB and the trade balance between China and the United States. It proves that RMB appreciation can not solve the problem of Sino US trade imbalance.
Chapter 6 is about other factors that affect Sino-US trade balance. Since the RMB exchange rate has a very limited impact on Sino-US trade balance, this chapter further explores other factors that affect Sino-US trade besides exchange rate. The trend line of the proportion of import and trade balance to GDP is almost the same, which shows that the excessive consumption and low savings rate in the United States are one of the reasons for the trade deficit of the United States in the past two decades. At the same time, the adjustment of the world industrial structure and the import restrictions imposed by the United States on China are the factors causing the Sino-US trade imbalance. The United States has overestimated the US trade deficit with China.
The seventh chapter is the policy suggestion. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate can not effectively balance the trade balance between China and the United States. The article puts forward corresponding policy suggestions. China not only needs to urge the United States to gradually improve its export control policy to China and increase the savings rate of the United States, but also needs to expand domestic demand, improve the Sino-US trade structure and speed up the people's life. Reform of the exchange rate system.
There are three innovations in this paper. First, this paper uses text, data and charts to analyze the relationship between RMB exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. The conclusion is that RMB exchange rate has a limited impact on Sino-US trade balance. At present, RMB appreciation can not promote Sino-US trade balance. Second, this paper uses the monthly economic data from 1995 to 2011 to model and analyze, overcomes the shortcomings of selecting too few sample points caused by annual or quarterly data. Third, many studies only discuss the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance, but this paper discusses other factors affecting Sino-US trade balance in detail.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F752.7;F224

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