【摘要】：在過(guò)去的30年里,中國(guó)的出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)在出口商品種類和出口商品數(shù)量方面有很大的提高。建國(guó)初期,我國(guó)主要以出口資源型的初級(jí)產(chǎn)品為主,到了20世紀(jì)90年代,中國(guó)的出口商品中已有74.4%的工業(yè)制成品,進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)以后,中國(guó)的出口商品品種和數(shù)量都不斷增加。機(jī)電產(chǎn)品和高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)品等資本技術(shù)密集型商品的比重逐漸增加。在經(jīng)歷了2008年的世界性危機(jī)后,我國(guó)的出口商品將面臨一次更艱難的考驗(yàn)。在過(guò)去的幾十年里,穩(wěn)定的匯率政策是中國(guó)出口商品的重要保護(hù)傘。在這段時(shí)間里,中國(guó)的出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)實(shí)現(xiàn)了從資源密集型向勞動(dòng)密集型商品的轉(zhuǎn)變,2003年又實(shí)現(xiàn)了勞動(dòng)密集型向資本技術(shù)密集型轉(zhuǎn)變。本文的實(shí)證分析結(jié)果顯示,人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)勞動(dòng)密集型的產(chǎn)品有負(fù)相關(guān)性,人民幣升值一定會(huì)使以服裝及其附件、鞋類、家具及其零件、汽車(chē)零件、塑料制品為代表的勞動(dòng)密集型商品商品出口額呈遞減的趨勢(shì)下降。人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)資本技術(shù)密集型商品的作用效果不顯著。通過(guò)人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的間接影響分析,本文認(rèn)為匯率變動(dòng)增加了出口商品制造業(yè)的長(zhǎng)期成本,匯率的大幅度升值必然減少我國(guó)出口商品的種類和數(shù)量。大量的優(yōu)質(zhì)企業(yè)以及外資企業(yè)可能會(huì)通過(guò)跨國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)移來(lái)降低成本上漲的壓力。這對(duì)中國(guó)出口商品制造業(yè)將構(gòu)成致命的打擊。
[Abstract]:In the past 30 years, the structure of China's exports has greatly improved in terms of types and quantity of exports. At the beginning of the founding of the people's Republic of China, the primary products of resource type were mainly exported in China. By the 1990s, 74.4% of China's manufactured products had been exported. After entering the 21st century, the variety and quantity of China's export commodities were increasing. The proportion of capital-technology intensive commodities such as mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products has gradually increased. After the world crisis in 2008, China's exports will face a more difficult test. A stable exchange rate policy has been an important umbrella for China's exports over the past few decades. During this period, China's export commodity structure changed from resource-intensive to labor-intensive, and in 2003, labor-intensive to capital-technology-intensive. The empirical results of this paper show that RMB exchange rate changes have negative correlation with labor-intensive products, and RMB appreciation will definitely result in clothing and accessories, footwear, furniture and its parts, auto parts, etc. Plastic products for the representative of labor-intensive commodity exports decreased. The effect of RMB exchange rate change on capital-technology intensive commodities is not significant. Based on the analysis of the indirect influence of RMB exchange rate change on the structure of export commodities, this paper holds that the exchange rate change increases the long-term cost of the manufacturing industry of export commodities, and the large appreciation of the exchange rate will inevitably reduce the types and quantity of Chinese export commodities. A large number of high-quality and foreign companies may shift across borders to reduce the pressure of rising costs. This will be a fatal blow to China's export manufacturing industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F752.62;F224

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 趙tq;;人民幣匯率變動(dòng)促進(jìn)我國(guó)進(jìn)出口企業(yè)發(fā)展的正向撥動(dòng)[J];財(cái)經(jīng)界(學(xué)術(shù)版);2013年13期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 馬萍萍;匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)工業(yè)制成品出口結(jié)構(gòu)的影響研究[D];西北大學(xué);2013年

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本文編號(hào)：2198636