【摘要】：隨著世界經(jīng)濟高度一體化，流入我國的外商直接投資規(guī)模越發(fā)擴大，，我國外商直接投資從高速成長期進入成熟期，引資結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生巨大變化，F(xiàn)DI已經(jīng)成為我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要組成部分。自2005年中國實施浮動匯率制度以來，匯率波動幅度的加大，影響著投資環(huán)境，增加了外商直接投資的不確定性，人民幣匯率變動對FDI投資的影響呈現(xiàn)出一定復(fù)雜性。匯率作為影響外商直接投資的重要因素，主要體現(xiàn)在匯率水平及波動兩個方面，因此，探究人民幣匯率變動對我國外商直接投資的影響具有現(xiàn)實意義。 本文首先詳細地介紹了人民幣匯率制度和匯率水平及波動相關(guān)概念，匯率水平是指貨幣當(dāng)前價值，波動是指貨幣價值變動程度。接著在數(shù)學(xué)模型理論分析FDI機制的基礎(chǔ)上，運用VAR模型、協(xié)整理論、誤差修正模型、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗等研究方法，從總體上分析我國FDI流入量與人民幣匯率水平、匯率波動之間的長期協(xié)整關(guān)系和短期動態(tài)非均衡關(guān)系。 通過對1994年到2013年的年度數(shù)據(jù)進行實證研究，結(jié)果表明，長期地看，人民幣實際有效匯率升值會抑制外商直接投資，匯率水平的波動對外商直接投資沒有直接影響；而短期內(nèi)匯率的升值對外商的抑制作用比長期更明顯，匯率波動的影響依舊不顯著；中國市場規(guī)模和對外開放度對FDI流入有正面影響。 本文最后基于我國外商直接投資的特點和實證檢驗的分析結(jié)果，提出了今后我國吸引外商直接投資的政策建議，應(yīng)該積極支持、充分引導(dǎo)外資，規(guī)范匯率制度和引資制度，保持匯率進中求穩(wěn)，為吸引外資創(chuàng)造良好的市場環(huán)境。
[Abstract]:With the high degree of integration of the world economy, the scale of foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into China has expanded more and more, and the foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has entered a mature period from the period of high-speed growth. FDI has become an important part of China's economic development. Since the implementation of floating exchange rate system in China in 2005, the increase of exchange rate fluctuation has affected the investment environment and increased the uncertainty of foreign direct investment. The impact of RMB exchange rate change on FDI investment has shown some complexity. Exchange rate, as an important factor affecting foreign direct investment, is mainly reflected in two aspects: exchange rate level and fluctuation. Therefore, it is of practical significance to explore the influence of RMB exchange rate change on foreign direct investment in China. This paper first introduces the RMB exchange rate regime and the relative concepts of exchange rate level and fluctuation in detail. The exchange rate level refers to the current value of the currency and the fluctuation refers to the degree of change in the value of the currency. Then on the basis of mathematical model theory analysis of FDI mechanism, using VAR model, cointegration theory, error correction model, Granger causality test and other research methods, this paper analyzes FDI inflow and RMB exchange rate level in China as a whole. Long-term cointegration and short-term dynamic disequilibrium between exchange rate fluctuations. Through the empirical study of the annual data from 1994 to 2013, the results show that, in the long run, the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB will restrain foreign direct investment, and the fluctuation of exchange rate level has no direct impact on foreign direct investment. In the short term, the revaluation of exchange rate is more obvious than in the long run, and the effect of exchange rate fluctuation is still not significant, and the scale of Chinese market and the degree of opening to the outside world have a positive effect on the inflow of FDI. Finally, based on the characteristics of foreign direct investment in China and the results of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for attracting foreign direct investment in China in the future. We should actively support, fully guide foreign investment, standardize the exchange rate system and foreign investment system. Keep the exchange rate stable and create a good market environment for attracting foreign investment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F832.6

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本文編號：2195268