【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟全球化與金融自由化的深入發(fā)展,資本在全球范圍的流動一直是國際社會與經(jīng)濟學(xué)界最為關(guān)注并廣泛探討的問題之一。歐債危機對區(qū)域及全球經(jīng)濟造成的沖擊尚未得到完全有效的控制,美國等發(fā)達國家的量化寬松政策所導(dǎo)致的流動性過剩問題給新興市場國家?guī)韲?yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。面對當(dāng)前特殊的國際經(jīng)濟環(huán)境,我國在推進資本項目開放時必須更加謹(jǐn)慎,在享受國際資本帶來的各種利益的同時最大限度地降低資本流動對我國經(jīng)濟金融穩(wěn)定可能產(chǎn)生的沖擊。 本文以最新國際經(jīng)濟金融形勢作為分析背景,以國際經(jīng)濟學(xué)、國際金融學(xué)相關(guān)理論為指導(dǎo),采用理論分析、比較分析和實證分析相結(jié)合的研究方法,探討的核心問題是在當(dāng)前形勢下如何采取有效措施與合理的制度安排保證我國資本項目開放進程的順利進行。本文首先對與資本流動和資本項目開放相關(guān)的理論概念作出了簡要介紹,包括資本項目開放的內(nèi)涵、條件、路徑、次序步驟安排及“三元悖論”理論等。隨后通過對亞洲地區(qū)部分典型國家及主要新興市場經(jīng)濟體的資本項目開放歷程進行回顧,總結(jié)出了可供參考的國際經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn),為我國資本項目開放進程中的路徑選擇、次序步驟安排及配套措施的實施提供有益借鑒。在對我國自1996年起采取的推動資本項目開放的主要政策措施進行簡要回顧之后,重點分析了當(dāng)前我國資本項目中直接投資、證券投資及其它投資的現(xiàn)狀和特點,明確了我國現(xiàn)階段的資本項目開放程度仍處于國際平均水平以下,亟待進一步開放。對現(xiàn)階段我國開放資本項目所面臨的國際收支失衡風(fēng)險、宏觀經(jīng)濟不穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險、金融體系不穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險及“三元悖論”風(fēng)險等主要風(fēng)險作出明確判斷,認(rèn)為這些風(fēng)險基本處于可控范圍內(nèi)。同時結(jié)合當(dāng)前國內(nèi)外環(huán)境與改革開放相關(guān)經(jīng)驗,認(rèn)為我國的資本項目開放進程應(yīng)采取漸進式的開放模式,提出了資本項目開放的內(nèi)外部次序安排及短、中、長期步驟安排,在開放的同時強調(diào)相關(guān)配套措施的實施,包括宏觀審慎政策、利率市場化與匯率形成機制改革、完善監(jiān)管與預(yù)警機制、加強國際經(jīng)驗交流與政策協(xié)調(diào)等。
[Abstract]:With the further development of economic globalization and financial liberalization, the flow of capital in the global scope has been one of the most concerned and widely discussed issues in international society and economic circles. The impact of the European debt crisis on the regional and global economies has not yet been fully contained, and the liquidity overhang caused by quantitative easing in developed countries such as the United States poses serious challenges to emerging market countries. In the face of the current special international economic environment, China must be more cautious in promoting the opening of its capital account. While enjoying all kinds of benefits brought by international capital, the impact of capital flow on China's economic and financial stability can be minimized at the same time. This article takes the latest international economic and financial situation as the analysis background, with the international economics, the international finance correlation theory as the instruction, uses the theory analysis, the comparison analysis and the demonstration analysis unifies the research method, The core problem is how to take effective measures and reasonable institutional arrangements to ensure the smooth progress of the capital account opening process under the current situation. In this paper, the theoretical concepts related to capital flow and capital account opening are introduced briefly, including the connotation, conditions, path, order and step arrangement of capital account opening and the theory of "ternary paradox". Then, by reviewing the opening process of capital account in some typical countries and major emerging market economies in Asia, the paper sums up the international experience and lessons for reference, which is the path choice in the process of capital account opening in China. The arrangement of sequence steps and the implementation of supporting measures provide useful reference. After a brief review of the main policies and measures adopted by China since 1996 to promote the opening of capital accounts, the paper focuses on the analysis of the current situation and characteristics of direct investment, securities investment and other investments in capital accounts in China. It is clear that the degree of capital account opening in China is still below the international average level, and it needs to be further opened. This paper makes a clear judgment on the main risks, such as the risk of imbalance of balance of payments, the risk of macroeconomic instability, the risk of instability of the financial system and the risk of "ternary paradox" faced by China's opening capital account at the present stage. These risks are considered to be basically within the range of control. At the same time, combined with the current domestic and foreign environment and relevant experience of reform and opening up, the author thinks that the capital account opening process of our country should adopt the gradual opening mode, and puts forward the internal and external order arrangement and short, medium and long-term steps arrangement of capital account opening. At the same time, it emphasizes the implementation of relevant supporting measures, including macro-prudential policy, reform of interest rate marketization and exchange rate formation mechanism, perfection of supervision and early warning mechanism, strengthening of international experience exchange and policy coordination, etc.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：財政部財政科學(xué)研究所
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6

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