【摘要】：伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化以及金融一體化的發(fā)展，各國間貿(mào)易聯(lián)系日益頻繁，這為國際熱錢在各國間頻繁流動創(chuàng)造了條件，同時金融衍生工具的不斷創(chuàng)新也為國際熱錢以多種渠道流入其它國家提供了可能。2007年美國爆發(fā)次貸危機，隨后其演變?yōu)橄砣虻慕鹑诤[，世界各國經(jīng)濟(jì)都因此遭受重創(chuàng)。作為新興的市場經(jīng)濟(jì)國家之一，我國率先走出經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的困境，并一直保持著較高的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度，同時自2005年匯率改革以來，人民幣對美元匯率持續(xù)單邊升值，美元利率持續(xù)走低，中美利差倒掛現(xiàn)象非常嚴(yán)重。在這樣的大背景下，人民幣升值預(yù)期非常強烈，越來越多的國際熱錢通過各種渠道流入我國市場進(jìn)行套利。金融業(yè)是我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要行業(yè)，因而加深對國際熱流入問題的研究以確保我國金融業(yè)健康穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展，，以盡可能降低金融危機在我國發(fā)生的概率，具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文首先介紹了國際熱錢流入我國的規(guī)模和渠道，運用殘差法對國際熱錢的規(guī)模進(jìn)行估算，測量出截止到2010年底流入我國的國際熱錢數(shù)量達(dá)到1808億美元，進(jìn)而分析近年來國際熱錢進(jìn)入我國的渠道，主要包括經(jīng)常項目渠道、資本項目渠道、個人渠道和地下錢莊等灰色渠道。其次對國際熱錢流入我國的原因進(jìn)行分析，指出寬松的國際金融環(huán)境（即金融自由化、金融一體化以及資本證券化不斷發(fā)展）、我國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面發(fā)展良好、人民幣升值預(yù)期、中美利率倒掛、以及我國資本市場發(fā)展迅速是國際熱錢流入我國的主要原因。再次，分析國際熱錢大量流入對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)各個層面產(chǎn)生的不良影響，指出它干擾我國宏觀調(diào)控政策的實施，增加宏觀調(diào)控的難度；削弱我國貨幣政策的有效性和獨立性，改變我國的貨幣供給結(jié)構(gòu)，使得我國貨幣政策實施進(jìn)退兩難；使我國資產(chǎn)價格急劇上升，嚴(yán)重影響國民經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展；進(jìn)一步增加我國的外匯儲備，給人民幣升值造成巨大的壓力。最后，借鑒其它遭受國際熱錢沖擊國家的監(jiān)管經(jīng)驗，針對我國具體國情提出防范國際熱錢流入的對策建議，主要包括完善人民幣匯率機制、構(gòu)建更有效的監(jiān)控機制、加強防范資本流動風(fēng)險控制的國際合作、提取無息存款準(zhǔn)備金、必要時征收托賓稅以及創(chuàng)新外匯儲備管理。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization and financial integration, trade links between countries are becoming more and more frequent, which creates conditions for the frequent flow of international hot money among countries. At the same time, the continuous innovation of financial derivatives also makes it possible for international hot money to flow into other countries through various channels. In 2007, the United States broke out the subprime mortgage crisis, and then it turned into a financial tsunami that swept the world. As one of the emerging market economy countries, China is the first to emerge from the economic recession, and has maintained a high economic growth rate. At the same time, since the exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB has continuously appreciated unilaterally against the US dollar. The dollar interest rate continues to fall, the Chinese-American spread upside down phenomenon is very serious. Against this background, RMB appreciation is expected to be very strong, and more international hot money flows into our market through various channels to carry out arbitrage. The financial industry is an important industry in the economic development of our country, so the research on the international heat inflow problem is deepened to ensure the healthy and stable development of the financial industry of our country, so as to reduce the probability of the financial crisis in our country as far as possible. It has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper first introduces the scale and channel of international hot money flowing into our country, estimates the scale of international hot money by residual method, and measures that the amount of international hot money flowing into our country by the end of 2010 has reached 180.8 billion US dollars. Then it analyzes the channels of international hot money entering our country in recent years, including current account channel, capital account channel, individual channel and underground bank. Secondly, by analyzing the reasons for the inflow of international hot money into China, the author points out that the relaxed international financial environment (i.e. financial liberalization, financial integration and the continuous development of capital securitization), the macroeconomic fundamentals of our country are developing well, and the appreciation of the RMB is expected. Chinese-American interest rate inversion and the rapid development of China's capital market are the main reasons for the inflow of international hot money into China. Thirdly, it analyzes the adverse effects of the international hot money inflow on all levels of China's economy, points out that it interferes with the implementation of China's macro-control policies, increases the difficulty of macro-control, and weakens the effectiveness and independence of China's monetary policy. Changing the monetary supply structure of our country makes the implementation of monetary policy of our country in a dilemma; causing the asset price of our country to rise sharply, seriously affecting the healthy development of the national economy; and further increasing our foreign exchange reserves. Put great pressure on the appreciation of RMB. Finally, based on the regulatory experience of other countries affected by international hot money, the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to prevent the inflow of international hot money according to the specific conditions of our country, mainly including perfecting the RMB exchange rate mechanism and establishing a more effective monitoring mechanism. We should strengthen international cooperation to prevent the risk of capital flow, draw out interest-free deposit reserves, levy Tobin tax if necessary, and innovate the management of foreign exchange reserves.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6

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