【摘要】：無論是采用通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制的國家，還是傳統(tǒng)的以貨幣供應(yīng)量為中介目標(biāo)的國家，，都需要對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的流動性狀況進(jìn)行有效的監(jiān)控。因?yàn)榱鲃有誀顩r向貨幣當(dāng)局傳達(dá)了豐富的有關(guān)貨幣供求及未來價格水平變化的相關(guān)信息，并且對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融的穩(wěn)定具有重要的影響。 改革開放以來，我國三個層次的貨幣供應(yīng)量均出現(xiàn)了較高幅度的增長。然而與傳統(tǒng)貨幣數(shù)量論描述的貨幣、價格與產(chǎn)出間關(guān)系不同的是，我國貨幣的高幅增長并沒有全部轉(zhuǎn)化為物價和產(chǎn)出水平的上漲，這被國際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界稱為“中國之謎”。特別是1997年亞洲金融危機(jī)之后，盡管我國貨幣供應(yīng)量仍然保持了較快的增長速度，但是居民消費(fèi)價格卻出現(xiàn)了持續(xù)多年的低增長甚至負(fù)增長的現(xiàn)象。貨幣供應(yīng)量長期的高幅增長不可避免地導(dǎo)致了我國貨幣資金流動性過剩的局面。進(jìn)入2003年以后，我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)處于新的一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)周期上升階段，在經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)快速增長和人民幣升值等因素的影響下，由于全球?qū)捤傻呢泿耪吆偷屠虱h(huán)境導(dǎo)致的過剩流動性以各種形式持續(xù)大量地涌入中國市場，使我國面臨流動性泛濫的巨大壓力。直至2007年下半年次貸危機(jī)的全面爆發(fā)，流動性過剩的局面才得以逆轉(zhuǎn)。2008年下半年開始，為了應(yīng)對國際金融危機(jī)，貨幣調(diào)控由“從緊”轉(zhuǎn)為“適度寬松”。到2009、2010年，由于寬松貨幣政策的繼續(xù)實(shí)施，以及受到美國等國家“量化寬松”政策的影響，宏觀流動性再次過剩。流動性過剩已經(jīng)成為當(dāng)前我國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)、健康發(fā)展所面臨的主要挑戰(zhàn)之一，它對我國貨幣政策的制定和實(shí)施以及經(jīng)濟(jì)金融的穩(wěn)定構(gòu)成了較大的威脅。對流動性過剩問題進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)、深入的研究，不僅在理論上有助于深化對貨幣供應(yīng)量與物價、產(chǎn)出之間關(guān)系的認(rèn)識，而且在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策實(shí)踐上有利于化解流動性過剩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，促進(jìn)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)、健康發(fā)展。 流動性過剩問題引起了社會各界的極大關(guān)注，然而既有研究中關(guān)于流動性過剩的成因、判斷標(biāo)準(zhǔn)及其對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響等問題遠(yuǎn)未達(dá)成一致性意見。流動性管理是中央銀行的重要職責(zé)之一。鑒于宏觀流動性在流動性體系中的基礎(chǔ)地位，以及受到研究內(nèi)容、研究水平的限制，本文主要研究宏觀層面的流動性過剩及其對我國貨幣政策有效性的影響。本文首先從歐洲中央銀行（ECB）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Thorsten PolleitDieter Gerdesmeier（2005）提出的流動性過剩的概念及其測度方法出發(fā)，對我國1978-2010年宏觀流動性狀況進(jìn)行了測度。在此基礎(chǔ)上，對我國流動性過剩的成因展開了理論與實(shí)證研究。接下來，文章重點(diǎn)研究了流動性過剩對我國貨幣政策有效性的影響，并對我國應(yīng)對流動性過剩的貨幣政策工具的效果進(jìn)行了評估。在總結(jié)德國、日本、墨西哥等國治理流動性過剩的經(jīng)驗(yàn)與教訓(xùn)的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了我國未來應(yīng)對流動性過剩的政策建議。 文章主要研究結(jié)論如下：一、我國宏觀流動性狀況具有基本平衡（1978-1994年）、流動性相對短缺（1995-1998年）、流動性相對過剩（2001-2006年）、流動性急劇短缺、逐步回復(fù)及再次過剩等（2007-2010年）四個明顯的階段。二、近年來國外資產(chǎn)（主要是由貿(mào)易順差導(dǎo)致的外匯儲備）的迅速增加是導(dǎo)致我國M1、M2兩個層面宏觀流動性過剩的主要因素。三、流動性過剩主要通過銀行信貸的擴(kuò)張推動產(chǎn)出與物價的上升。因此，流動性過剩在實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)出增長目標(biāo)的同時，降低了貨幣當(dāng)局對物價的控制能力。四、由于外匯儲備增長過快，除了貸款基準(zhǔn)利率的調(diào)整具有一定的流動性緊縮效應(yīng)之外，其他工具變量調(diào)整的流動性緊縮效應(yīng)有限。五、當(dāng)面對“三元悖論”沖突時，我們應(yīng)該給予貨幣政策獨(dú)立性以更大的權(quán)重；流動性過剩并不一定能夠馬上對物價產(chǎn)生影響，政策反應(yīng)滯后以及過于嚴(yán)厲均會給經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來災(zāi)難性的后果；在對外開放中，我們應(yīng)該對資本市場開放、短期資本流入、貿(mào)易赤字占GDP的比例等給予足夠的重視。六、在流動性過剩時期，如果中央銀行能夠?qū)Ｗ⒂谖飪r與產(chǎn)出目標(biāo)，采用多方面措施治理與利用過多的流動性，我們將能夠更好地應(yīng)對流動性過剩的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:Whether it is an inflation targeting country or a traditional country with a monetary supply as an intermediary, it is necessary to effectively monitor the liquidity situation of the macro-economy, because the liquidity situation conveys rich information about money supply and demand and the changes in the future price level to the monetary authorities, and to the macro level. Economic, financial stability has an important impact.
Since the reform and opening up, the three levels of China's money supply has increased considerably. However, the relationship between the price and output of the traditional currency quantity theory is different from that of the price and output. The high growth of China's currency has not been transformed to the rise in the level of price and output, which is called "the mystery of China" by the international economic circle. In particular, after the Asian financial crisis of 1997, although our country's money supply still maintained a fast growth rate, the consumption price of the residents had been low or even negative growth for many years. The long-term high growth of money supply inevitably led to the situation of excess liquidity in China's money and money. After 2003, China's national economy is in a new stage of rising economic cycle. Under the influence of sustained and rapid economic growth and RMB appreciation, the surplus liquidity caused by the global loose monetary policy and low interest rate environment influx into the Chinese market in a variety of forms, so that China faces the liquidity pan. In the second half of 2007, the overall outbreak of the subprime crisis broke out in the second half of 2007. The situation of excess liquidity was reversed in the second half of.2008. In order to cope with the international financial crisis, the monetary regulation changed from "tight" to "moderately loose". By the 20092010 year, because of the continued implementation of the loose currency policy, as well as in the United States and other countries. The impact of the "quantitative easing" policy, the macro liquidity surplus, excess liquidity has become one of the major challenges facing our country's macroeconomic sustainability and healthy development. It poses a great threat to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy and the stability of economic and financial stability. The study not only helps to deepen the understanding of the relationship between the money supply and the price and output in theory, but also helps to resolve the risk of excess liquidity in the practice of macroeconomic policy, and promote the sustained and healthy development of our economy.
The problem of excess liquidity has aroused great concern from all walks of life. However, there is no consensus on the causes of excess liquidity, the standard of judgement and its impact on the macro-economy. Liquidity management is one of the important responsibilities of the central bank. As well as the limitations of the research content and the level of research, this paper mainly studies the macro level of liquidity surplus and its impact on the effectiveness of China's monetary policy. This paper starts with the concept and measurement method of liquidity excess proposed by the Thorsten PolleitDieter Gerdesmeier (2005) economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), and 1 to China. In the past 978-2010 years, the macro liquidity situation was measured. On this basis, a theoretical and empirical study was carried out on the causes of excess liquidity in China. Then, the article focused on the effect of excess liquidity on the effectiveness of monetary policy in China, and evaluated the effect of the monetary policy tools to cope with the excess liquidity in China. Based on the experience and lessons of Germany, Japan, Mexico and other countries in overcoming excess liquidity, this paper puts forward policy proposals for China to deal with excess liquidity in the future.
The main conclusions are as follows: first, China's macro liquidity situation has a basic balance (1978-1994 years), relative shortage of liquidity (1995-1998 years), relative surplus of liquidity (2001-2006 years), rapid shortage of liquidity, gradual recovery and excess excess (2007-2010 years), four obvious stages. Two, foreign assets (mainly by trade) in recent years. The rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves caused by the ease of surplus is the main factor leading to the macro liquidity surplus in the two levels of M1 and M2 in China. Three, the excess liquidity is mainly through the expansion of bank credit to promote the rise of output and prices. Therefore, the excess liquidity has reduced the control of the price by the monetary authorities while realizing the target of output growth. Four, in addition to the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves, in addition to the adjustment of the loan benchmark interest rate has a certain liquidity contraction effect, the liquidity contraction effect of other tool variables is limited. Five, when facing the conflict of "three yuan paradox", we should give more weight to the independence of monetary policy; excess liquidity is not necessarily the same. It can have an immediate impact on prices, the lag of policy response and too much severity will bring disastrous consequences to the economy. In the opening up, we should pay enough attention to the opening of the capital market, the short term capital inflow, the proportion of the trade deficit in the GDP, and so on. Six, in the period of excess liquidity, if the central bank can concentrate on it We should be able to better cope with the potential risks of excess liquidity by adopting various measures to control and utilize excessive liquidity in terms of price and output objectives.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F822.0;F224

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