【摘要】：匯率是國際貿(mào)易中重要的調(diào)節(jié)杠桿，匯率的變動會通過價格機制的作用影響一國的出口貿(mào)易。實際有效匯率是在名義有效匯率的基礎上剔除通貨膨脹因素得到的，它能夠真實的反應一國貨幣的實際競爭力。 隨著中國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展和國際地位的不斷提高，人民幣的國際競爭力逐漸增強。近年來人民幣持續(xù)升值，這給中國的出口貿(mào)易既帶來了挑戰(zhàn)也帶來了機遇。山東省是一個的開放的經(jīng)濟大省，出口貿(mào)易在該省經(jīng)濟總量中一直占有十分重要的比重。在這樣的大背景下來研究實際有效匯率變動對山東出口貿(mào)易結構的影響是具有實際意義的。 本文通過規(guī)范分析和實證分析相結合的方法，研究實際有效匯率變動對山東出口貿(mào)易結構的影響。首先介紹了匯率變動影響國際貿(mào)易的相關理論和傳導機制，然后對人民幣的演變過程和山東出口貿(mào)易的現(xiàn)狀進行分析。在實證分析部分，通過向量自回歸進行協(xié)整分析，對人民幣實際有效匯率變動與山東省出口貿(mào)易額和出口貿(mào)易結構的關系進行實證分析。實證結果表明，人民幣實際有效匯率的上升對山東省出口貿(mào)易額和出口貿(mào)易結構都有優(yōu)化的作用。 在實證結果的基礎上，，山東省要在人民幣升值的趨勢下優(yōu)化出口貿(mào)易結構，就必須加大科研投入，提高自主創(chuàng)新能力，不斷提升出口產(chǎn)品的技術含量和附加值，打造自主品牌，提高山東出口產(chǎn)品的競爭力，從而推動山東出口貿(mào)易結構的升級。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is an important regulating lever in international trade. The change of exchange rate will affect a country's export trade through the function of price mechanism. The real effective exchange rate is based on the nominal effective exchange rate, which can reflect the real competitiveness of a country's currency. With the development of China's economy and the improvement of its international status, the international competitiveness of RMB is gradually strengthened. The renminbi's continued appreciation in recent years has brought both challenges and opportunities to China's export trade. Shandong Province is an open economic province, export trade has always occupied a very important proportion in the total economic volume of the province. Under this background, it is of practical significance to study the effect of the real effective exchange rate on Shandong export trade structure. Through the combination of normative analysis and empirical analysis, this paper studies the effect of real effective exchange rate changes on Shandong export trade structure. This paper first introduces the theory and transmission mechanism of the influence of exchange rate change on international trade, then analyzes the evolution of RMB and the current situation of Shandong export trade. In the part of empirical analysis, through vector autoregressive cointegration analysis, the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and export trade volume and export trade structure of Shandong Province is analyzed empirically. The empirical results show that the rise of the real effective exchange rate of RMB plays an important role in optimizing the export trade volume and the export trade structure of Shandong Province. On the basis of empirical results, in order to optimize the structure of export trade under the trend of RMB appreciation, Shandong Province must increase scientific research investment, improve the ability of independent innovation, continuously enhance the technical content and added value of export products, and build its own brand. Improve the competitiveness of Shandong export products, so as to promote the upgrading of Shandong export trade structure.
【學位授予單位】：山東財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.6;F224

【引證文獻】

相關碩士學位論文 前1條

1 金文艷;人民幣匯率升值對河北省出口貿(mào)易影響的實證研究[D];河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學;2013年

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