發(fā)布時間：2018-07-25 10:11

【摘要】：改革開放30余年里,我國的對外開放進程一直遵循著逐步放松資本管制的原則穩(wěn)步前行,而匯率問題如今已成為該項進程中的核心問題。這是因為國家間的資本流動,難免會沖擊我國的外匯市場,給人民幣匯率的變動帶來不確定性,從而影響我國宏觀經(jīng)濟的運行。不難發(fā)現(xiàn),隨著對外開放進程地加深,我國自1993年起就已經(jīng)成為吸引外國資本最多的發(fā)展中國家,而近年來陸續(xù)實施的QFII與滬港通機制也將我國的證券市場推向國際,為A股市場注入了大量的外國“血液”。故而,流入我國境內(nèi)的跨國資本已經(jīng)頗具規(guī)模,這必然會引起我國資產(chǎn)存量與結(jié)構(gòu)的變化,從而影響人民幣匯率的波動。因此,本文旨在運用我國已有的經(jīng)驗數(shù)據(jù)來探討國際資本流入與人民幣匯率二者之間的變動關(guān)系,并在此基礎(chǔ)上為資本開放條件下的政策選擇提出參考性建議。國際資本流動對國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟變量有著廣泛影響,如匯率、利率、外匯儲備、國內(nèi)貨幣供給甚至國內(nèi)投資與儲備。另一方面,美國金融危機在沖擊全球?qū)嶓w經(jīng)濟的同時實施其量化寬松政策,由此釋放出來的一部分美元順勢進入中國市場進行套利,為維持外匯市場穩(wěn)定,國內(nèi)基礎(chǔ)貨幣被動性地增加,直接加深了國內(nèi)的通脹壓力。而匯率變動不僅會影響國內(nèi)的金融穩(wěn)定還會降低國內(nèi)外投資者的投資興趣,因而維持匯率的相對穩(wěn)定成了經(jīng)濟健康發(fā)展的保障之一。根據(jù)國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的定義,管理浮動匯率(Managed Floating Exchange Rate)是指政府經(jīng)常干預(yù)外匯市場以維持匯率朝著有利于本國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的方向變動。故而,本文結(jié)合中國的實際情況,建立相關(guān)模型,從理論上解釋了人民幣外匯市場壓力指數(shù)與資本流入二者之間的關(guān)系。在實證檢驗中引入代表政府干預(yù)政策的宏觀變量對人民幣匯率進行穩(wěn)定性分析:筆者研究發(fā)現(xiàn),實際匯率與資本流入在5%的顯著水平下存在一個協(xié)整方程,資本流入占GDP的比重每增加一個單位,實際有效匯率的值就會增加0.36個單位,代表政府干預(yù)手段的貨幣沖銷政策、財政政策與資本流出管制都能在一定程度上熨平匯率的波動。
[Abstract]:During more than 30 years of reform and opening up, the process of opening to the outside world in our country has been following the principle of gradual relaxation of capital control, and the exchange rate has become the core issue in this process. This is because the capital flow between countries will inevitably impact the foreign exchange market of China, bring uncertainty to the change of RMB exchange rate, and thus affect the operation of China's macro economy. It is not difficult to find that with the deepening of the opening to the outside world, China has become the developing country that attracts the most foreign capital since 1993, and the mechanism of QFII and Shanghai Stock Connect, which has been implemented in recent years, has also pushed the securities market of our country to the international level. A large amount of foreign "blood" has been injected into the A-share market. Therefore, the transnational capital flowing into the territory of China has already taken on a large scale, which will inevitably cause the change of the stock and structure of assets in our country, thus affecting the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between the international capital inflow and the RMB exchange rate by using the existing empirical data in China, and on this basis, to put forward some suggestions for the policy choice under the condition of capital opening. International capital flows have a wide influence on domestic economic variables, such as exchange rate, interest rate, foreign exchange reserves, domestic money supply and even domestic investment and reserves. On the other hand, while the US financial crisis has hit the global real economy, it has implemented its quantitative easing policy at the same time. As a result, some of the US dollars released from the crisis have entered the Chinese market to carry out arbitrage, in order to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market. The domestic base currency increases passively, directly deepens the domestic inflation pressure. The exchange rate fluctuation will not only affect the domestic financial stability but also reduce the investment interest of domestic and foreign investors, so maintaining the relative stability of the exchange rate has become one of the guarantees of healthy economic development. According to the definition of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the management of floating exchange rate (Managed Floating Exchange Rate) means that the government often intervenes in the foreign exchange market to keep the exchange rate moving in a direction conducive to the development of the country's economy. Therefore, based on the actual situation in China, this paper establishes a relevant model and theoretically explains the relationship between the pressure index of RMB foreign exchange market and capital inflow. In the empirical test, the macro variables representing government intervention policy are introduced to analyze the stability of RMB exchange rate: the author finds that there is a cointegration equation between real exchange rate and capital inflow at a significant level of 5%. When the proportion of capital inflow to GDP increases by one unit, the real effective exchange rate will increase by 0.36 units. The monetary sterilisation policy representing the government intervention means, the fiscal policy and the capital outflow control can to a certain extent smooth the fluctuation of the exchange rate.
【學位授予單位】：廣東外語外貿(mào)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F832.6

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