我國金融政策對房地產市場的調控效應分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-17 01:55
【摘要】：自從房地產市場化改革以來,特別是近十年來的高速發(fā)展,房地產行業(yè)已逐漸形成我國的支柱產業(yè),房地產開發(fā)投資總額占GDP比重在1986年僅為1%,而到2010年已高達12.13%,其產業(yè)鏈長,關聯效應強,能直接或間接帶動多個上下游產業(yè)的發(fā)展從而對居民消費、擴大內需、增加就業(yè)和促進國民經濟發(fā)展產生一系列拉動作用；在房地產行業(yè)快速發(fā)展的同時,作為最為敏感的房價呈現了快速上漲的態(tài)勢,這也同時帶來了資源配置失衡、資產泡沫積聚、金融系統風險提升甚至社會穩(wěn)定等一系列問題,為保證房地產市場的穩(wěn)定與健康發(fā)展,國家必需對房地產行業(yè)進行一系列的宏觀調控,其中金融政策的調控首當其沖,國家近些年以來多次運用了利率、存款準備金率、信貸規(guī)�？刂�、首付比例控制等多項手段進行了房地產調控,也取得了一定的成效,但由于房地場行業(yè)本身存在較大的復雜性,如城市化進程高速發(fā)展下的供求失衡、土地財政現象突出、對于銀行貸款的高度依賴,地區(qū)間發(fā)展的極不平衡等因素,造成了調控本身難度較大,同時宏觀經濟中的流動性過剩、人民幣的升值預期、貨幣政策本身存在時滯性都造成金融政策調控效應的減弱,通過實證分析發(fā)現在各項金融工具運用中對房地產價格影響較大的為信貸規(guī)模,利率手段長期內影響房地產價格,但短期影響偏弱,匯率波動也對房地產價格有著正向的影響。通過對比發(fā)達國家地區(qū)調控的經驗和教訓來看,過于寬松和過于嚴厲的調控將對房地產市場帶來的極為嚴重的影響,如美國的次貸危機和日本的房地產泡沫破滅。為了提高我國金融政策調控房地產市場的有效性,提出了幾點建議,第一應該將調控的時點和力度與房地產發(fā)展周期相結合,第二是應結合地區(qū)差異采取不同的金融調控政策,第三應該采取更直接的金融調控政策。第四應該審慎使用貨幣政策,優(yōu)化貨幣流通環(huán)境,第五應該加快房地產金融體系化建設,拓寬融資渠道,進行金融創(chuàng)新,第六是優(yōu)化與完善住房公積金制度,形成多層次房地產金融體系,控制金融風險。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of real estate market, especially the rapid development in the past ten years, the real estate industry has gradually formed the pillar industry of our country. The proportion of total investment in real estate development to GDP is only 1% in 1986, but by 2010 it has reached 12.13%, and its industry chain is long. Strong correlation effect, can directly or indirectly drive the development of multiple upstream and downstream industries, thus producing a series of pulling effects on residents' consumption, expanding domestic demand, increasing employment and promoting the development of the national economy; while the real estate industry is developing rapidly, As the most sensitive housing price, housing prices have shown a rapid rise, which has also brought about a series of problems, such as imbalance in resource allocation, accumulation of asset bubbles, rising risks in the financial system and even social stability. In order to ensure the stability and healthy development of the real estate market, the state must carry out a series of macro-control over the real estate industry, among which the regulation of financial policy is the first. In recent years, the country has used interest rates and reserve requirements for many times. Many means, such as credit scale control and downpayment proportion control, have been used to control the real estate, and some achievements have been made. However, due to the complexity of the real estate industry itself, such as the imbalance between supply and demand in the rapid development of urbanization, The prominent phenomenon of land finance, the high dependence on bank loans, the extremely unbalanced development among regions, and other factors have resulted in the difficulty of adjustment and control itself. At the same time, there is excess liquidity in the macro economy and the expectation of appreciation of the RMB. The delay of monetary policy itself causes the weakening of financial policy regulation effect. Through empirical analysis, it is found that the scale of credit has a great impact on the real estate price in the use of various financial instruments, and the interest rate means affects the real estate price in the long run. But the short-term influence is weak, the exchange rate fluctuation also has the positive influence to the real estate price. By comparing the experiences and lessons of regional regulation in developed countries, too loose and too strict regulation will bring very serious impact on the real estate market, such as the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the bursting of the real estate bubble in Japan. In order to improve the effectiveness of China's financial policy to regulate the real estate market, several suggestions are put forward. Firstly, the timing and intensity of regulation and control should be combined with the real estate development cycle, and secondly, different financial control policies should be adopted in the light of regional differences. Third, more direct financial regulation and control policies should be adopted. Fourth, we should use monetary policy prudently to optimize the monetary circulation environment. Fifth, we should speed up the construction of the real estate financial system, widen the channels of financing, and carry out financial innovation. Sixth, we should optimize and improve the housing accumulation fund system. Form a multi-level real estate financial system to control financial risks.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F299.23;F832
[Abstract]:Since the reform of real estate market, especially the rapid development in the past ten years, the real estate industry has gradually formed the pillar industry of our country. The proportion of total investment in real estate development to GDP is only 1% in 1986, but by 2010 it has reached 12.13%, and its industry chain is long. Strong correlation effect, can directly or indirectly drive the development of multiple upstream and downstream industries, thus producing a series of pulling effects on residents' consumption, expanding domestic demand, increasing employment and promoting the development of the national economy; while the real estate industry is developing rapidly, As the most sensitive housing price, housing prices have shown a rapid rise, which has also brought about a series of problems, such as imbalance in resource allocation, accumulation of asset bubbles, rising risks in the financial system and even social stability. In order to ensure the stability and healthy development of the real estate market, the state must carry out a series of macro-control over the real estate industry, among which the regulation of financial policy is the first. In recent years, the country has used interest rates and reserve requirements for many times. Many means, such as credit scale control and downpayment proportion control, have been used to control the real estate, and some achievements have been made. However, due to the complexity of the real estate industry itself, such as the imbalance between supply and demand in the rapid development of urbanization, The prominent phenomenon of land finance, the high dependence on bank loans, the extremely unbalanced development among regions, and other factors have resulted in the difficulty of adjustment and control itself. At the same time, there is excess liquidity in the macro economy and the expectation of appreciation of the RMB. The delay of monetary policy itself causes the weakening of financial policy regulation effect. Through empirical analysis, it is found that the scale of credit has a great impact on the real estate price in the use of various financial instruments, and the interest rate means affects the real estate price in the long run. But the short-term influence is weak, the exchange rate fluctuation also has the positive influence to the real estate price. By comparing the experiences and lessons of regional regulation in developed countries, too loose and too strict regulation will bring very serious impact on the real estate market, such as the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the bursting of the real estate bubble in Japan. In order to improve the effectiveness of China's financial policy to regulate the real estate market, several suggestions are put forward. Firstly, the timing and intensity of regulation and control should be combined with the real estate development cycle, and secondly, different financial control policies should be adopted in the light of regional differences. Third, more direct financial regulation and control policies should be adopted. Fourth, we should use monetary policy prudently to optimize the monetary circulation environment. Fifth, we should speed up the construction of the real estate financial system, widen the channels of financing, and carry out financial innovation. Sixth, we should optimize and improve the housing accumulation fund system. Form a multi-level real estate financial system to control financial risks.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F299.23;F832
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