本文選題：結(jié)算貨幣選擇 + 人民幣跨境結(jié)算　； 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：最近三年來,人民幣跨境結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)展順利,一方面幫助我國進(jìn)出口企業(yè)規(guī)避了匯率風(fēng)險、減少了匯兌成本,有利于促進(jìn)我國出口增長；另一方面,人民幣跨境貿(mào)易結(jié)算、人民幣直接投資的推出不可避免的對我國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)平衡產(chǎn)生影響。 因此本文在跨境人民幣結(jié)算推出近三年之際,結(jié)合國家十二五規(guī)劃想要促進(jìn)國際收支和對外貿(mào)易更加平衡的思路,借鑒國際收支相關(guān)理論和結(jié)算貨幣選擇理論,分析兩年多來人民幣跨境結(jié)算的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)和發(fā)展趨勢,歸納出其對我國國際收支平衡表各項(xiàng)目的影響。 在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文還根據(jù)人民幣跨境結(jié)算的未來發(fā)展趨勢分析了其對我國國際收支平衡的作用、總結(jié)了美國采用美元結(jié)算仍然導(dǎo)致收支失衡對我國的借鑒意義、也探討了從歐債危機(jī)看區(qū)域貨幣的使用對各國國際收支的影響,最后針對目前人民幣跨境結(jié)算呈現(xiàn)出的問題和借鑒他國推出本國貨幣國際化的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。 本文結(jié)構(gòu)主要分五個部分,以下是本文主要內(nèi)容的概述： 首先第一章引言部分,主要對全文的研究背景和文獻(xiàn)綜述做了介紹。本文主要是以國際金融危機(jī)后我國開展跨境貿(mào)易人民幣結(jié)算為研究起點(diǎn),試圖從新的視角找出解決我國過年來的國際收支失衡問題的新辦法和新思路。文獻(xiàn)綜述部分則是本文的研究基礎(chǔ),從三個方面對已有理論進(jìn)行了歸納,分別是關(guān)于國際結(jié)算貨幣選擇的理論綜述、國際收支的理論綜述和人民幣跨境結(jié)算對我國國際收支失衡影響的文獻(xiàn)綜述。通過分析發(fā)現(xiàn),中國作為全球第一大出口國,進(jìn)口貿(mào)易額也位居全球第二,而我國的對外貿(mào)易到2011年底仍有90%采用外幣結(jié)算,這與貿(mào)易規(guī)模、世界支付份額、出口商品需求決定交易結(jié)算貨幣的理論是相悖的,也說明當(dāng)前我國大力支持跨境貿(mào)易人民幣結(jié)算的戰(zhàn)略是正確而可行的。并且根據(jù)國際收支的相關(guān)理論,人民幣跨境結(jié)算的進(jìn)一步深化是會對中國國際收支平衡的貿(mào)易項(xiàng)目、直接投資項(xiàng)目和外匯儲備余額產(chǎn)生重大影響的。 第二章主要是對人民幣跨境結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了概述。包括目前國內(nèi)開展人民幣跨境結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀、開展人民幣結(jié)算的金融機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)展概況、海外開展人民幣結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)的國家現(xiàn)狀。我國目前跨境人民幣業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展迅速,從貿(mào)易結(jié)算到直接投資、從逐步拓展試點(diǎn)區(qū)域到全球鼓勵人民幣結(jié)算、貿(mào)易服務(wù)直接投資項(xiàng)下的人民幣——開放,還批準(zhǔn)了銀行間債券市場的開放和RQFII。在這過程中,以中銀香港為代表的金融機(jī)構(gòu)人民幣清算和結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模迅速增長,為國內(nèi)外企業(yè)提供國際服務(wù)的水平迅速提高。海外國家和地區(qū)基于人民幣幣值的穩(wěn)定和強(qiáng)大的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力,進(jìn)一步接受人民幣作為結(jié)算貨幣,甚至有的國家將人民幣納入自己的外匯儲備管理。 第三章主要研究了人民幣跨境結(jié)算對我國國際收支主要項(xiàng)目的影響。本章是基于已經(jīng)開展的業(yè)務(wù)和官方公布的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行的研究。包括對我國經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目的影響、對我國資本和金融項(xiàng)目的影響和對我國外匯儲備的影響。又進(jìn)一步將各子項(xiàng)目拆分研究,細(xì)化了對貨物貿(mào)易、服務(wù)貿(mào)易、直接投資、證券投資、其他投資的影響分析。通過數(shù)據(jù)分析,結(jié)果顯示：人民幣跨境結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)開展以后,隨著其交易結(jié)算量的逐步擴(kuò)大,我國三大主要項(xiàng)目貿(mào)易收支、直接投資和外匯儲備發(fā)展趨勢有了變化。即經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差自07、08年達(dá)到歷年高峰后,09年至11年逐年降低并趨向國際慣例的均衡狀態(tài)。而資本和金融項(xiàng)目順差在08年之后急速擴(kuò)大,10年和11年順差值均在兩千億美元以上。外匯儲備余額總體增長趨勢依舊,只是11年增幅略有縮小。 第四章研究了人民幣跨境結(jié)算的發(fā)展對我國國際收支平衡的作用。包括人民幣雙向直接投資結(jié)算將使外匯儲備可控性提高、人民幣離岸金融中心的建設(shè)可以完善人民幣的回流機(jī)制、人民幣逐步區(qū)域化直至走向國際貨幣使調(diào)節(jié)失衡主動權(quán)增強(qiáng)、美國采用美元結(jié)算仍然導(dǎo)致收支失衡對我國的借鑒意義和從歐債危機(jī)看區(qū)域貨幣的使用對各國國際收支的影響。本章的研究主要是根據(jù)這三年的發(fā)展趨勢對人民幣在跨境結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)全面放開后可能的發(fā)展方向進(jìn)行了展望,并從邏輯和經(jīng)驗(yàn)上推測了其可能對我國國際收支的影響。由于目前人民幣的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易結(jié)算和雙向直接投資都已開放,初步的人民幣離岸金融市場也已經(jīng)形成,將來我們還需進(jìn)一步拓展人民幣的交易結(jié)算和投資規(guī)模,開發(fā)更多的人民幣產(chǎn)品和服務(wù),從各方面促進(jìn)我國的內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)發(fā)展。而從美國的美元結(jié)算我們可以看出美國的國際收支平衡模式是經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目和資本金融項(xiàng)目互相彌補(bǔ)式,我國要走的是各項(xiàng)目分別均衡模式,我們需要借鑒的是美國的發(fā)展經(jīng)驗(yàn),而不是畏而不前。歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)并非源于歐元本身的缺陷,而在于歐元區(qū)部分國家的財政危機(jī),我們目前需要借鑒的是歐洲債券市場的發(fā)展經(jīng)驗(yàn)和監(jiān)管措施,大力發(fā)展我國的債券市場,在促進(jìn)我國人民幣發(fā)揮保值功能的同時,避免類似悲劇發(fā)生。 最后一章提出了人民幣跨境結(jié)算配合國內(nèi)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整促進(jìn)我國國際收支平衡的政策建議。主要有提高跨境貿(mào)易中收益較高且具備比較優(yōu)勢的產(chǎn)業(yè)比重；進(jìn)一步鼓勵人民幣直接投資項(xiàng)目下走出去和引進(jìn)來,擴(kuò)展人民幣雙向流通渠道；逐步建立完善人民幣債券市場,提供人民幣保值場所；進(jìn)一步提升人民幣的國際服務(wù)水平,同時逐步調(diào)整我國內(nèi)部的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)。國際收支平衡表最主要反映的是我國在對外交往過程的貨幣收付情況,不論貿(mào)易結(jié)算和投資結(jié)算是采用哪種貨幣,調(diào)節(jié)國際收支平衡最終還需從貿(mào)易和投資本身入手。因此,我們需借著人民幣跨境結(jié)算的東風(fēng),改善我國國內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)和對外貿(mào)易的產(chǎn)業(yè)比重,在人民幣的對外投資上要保證布局合理,提高收益,吸引外商直接投資時更要注重質(zhì)量和技術(shù)輻射效應(yīng),促進(jìn)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)金融部門合理均衡發(fā)展。 本文的主要創(chuàng)新在于選題的創(chuàng)新和研究視角的創(chuàng)新,即將人民幣跨境結(jié)算的試行初衷、發(fā)展歷程和未來前景與我國長期國際收支失衡的國情結(jié)合起來研究,在外部環(huán)境復(fù)雜多變的條件下,借鑒美歐大國的貨幣與危機(jī)之間聯(lián)系的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn),提出適合我國經(jīng)濟(jì)均衡發(fā)展并完善人民幣的國際貨幣功能的調(diào)整性建議。 由于本課題新穎導(dǎo)致的直接相關(guān)理論缺乏和對有效信息的甄選能力有限,本文還存在許多不足之處亟待改進(jìn),特別是研究深度不夠、數(shù)據(jù)仍不夠詳實(shí)、對這一領(lǐng)域未來發(fā)展趨勢的宏觀判斷和自己的政策建言尚顯稚嫩,希望在今后的工作中能有更多的實(shí)踐來激發(fā)靈感,有更多的時間來做深度研究。
[Abstract]:In the last three years, the cross-border settlement of RMB has progressed smoothly. On the one hand, it helps our import and export enterprises to avoid the exchange rate risk, reduce the exchange cost and promote the export growth of our country. On the other hand, the introduction of RMB cross-border trade settlement and the introduction of RMB direct investment will inevitably have an impact on our domestic and foreign economic balance.
Therefore, on the occasion of the introduction of the cross-border RMB settlement for nearly three years, this paper analyzes the actual data and development trend of RMB cross-border settlement for more than two years by using the theory of balance of payments and the money selection theory of settlement of balance of balance in the 12th Five-Year plan of the national plan to promote balance of international balance of payments and foreign trade. The impact of each item on the balance sheet.
On this basis, this paper also analyzes the role of the balance of payments in China according to the future development trend of the cross-border settlement of RMB, and summarizes the significance of the US dollar settlement still leads to the balance of revenue and expenditure on our country, and also discusses the influence of the use of regional currency on the balance of payments of each country from the European debt crisis. At present, the problems in the cross border settlement of RMB and the experiences and lessons from other countries in promoting the internationalization of their currencies are put forward and corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.
The structure of this paper is divided into five parts. The following is the outline of the main contents of this article.
The first chapter is the introduction part, which mainly introduces the research background and literature review of the full text. This article is mainly the starting point of the study of cross-border trade RMB settlement in China after the international financial crisis, trying to find out new ways and new ideas to solve the problem of balance of payments imbalance in China from a new perspective. It is the basis of this study, and the existing theories are summarized from three aspects, which are the theoretical summary of the currency selection of international settlement, the theoretical summary of the balance of payments and the impact of the cross-border settlement of RMB on the balance of payments imbalance in China. The amount also ranks second in the world, while foreign trade in our country still has 90% foreign currency settlement by the end of 2011, which is contrary to the theory of trade scale, world payment share and export commodity demand determining the transaction settlement currency. It also indicates that our country's strategy to support cross-border trade in the settlement of people's currency is correct and feasible at present. The further deepening of the cross-border settlement of RMB will have a significant impact on China's balance of payments trade items, direct investment projects and foreign exchange reserve balances.
The second chapter is mainly about the current situation of RMB cross-border settlement business, including the current situation of the development of RMB cross-border settlement business in China, the development of RMB settlement financial institutions and the status quo of the overseas Chinese RMB settlement business. To direct investment, from the gradual expansion of the pilot area to the global encouragement of RMB settlement, the renminbi under direct investment in trade services is open, and the opening of the interbank bond market is approved and RQFII. in this process, the business scale of the RMB clearing and settlement business, represented by China silver Hongkong, is rapidly increasing for domestic and foreign enterprises. The level of international services provided by the industry has increased rapidly. Overseas countries and regions further accept the renminbi as a clearing currency based on the stability and strong economic strength of the RMB value, and even some countries have incorporated the RMB into their foreign exchange reserves management.
The third chapter mainly studies the influence of RMB cross-border settlement on the main items of our international balance of payments. This chapter is based on the research that has been carried out and officially published. It includes the impact on China's current projects, the impact on China's capital and financial projects and the impact on China's foreign exchange reserves. The analysis of the impact on goods trade, service trade, direct investment, securities investment, and other investment. The results show that after the cross-border settlement of the RMB business, the three major owners of our country need the trade balance, direct investment and foreign exchange reserve development trend with the gradual expansion of the transaction settlement volume. There is a change. That is, the current account surplus has decreased from 09 to 11 years and tends to a balanced state of international practice from 09 to 11 years. The surplus of capital and financial projects is rapidly expanding after 08 years, and the surplus value of 10 and 11 years is above two hundred billion dollars. The overall growth trend of foreign exchange reserves remains still, only a slight increase of 11 years. There is a reduction.
The fourth chapter studies the effect of the development of RMB cross-border settlement on the balance of payments in China. The two-way direct investment settlement of RMB will improve the controllability of foreign exchange reserve. The construction of RMB offshore financial center can improve the reflux mechanism of RMB, and the RMB will be gradually regionalization to the international currency to adjust the imbalance main. The use of US dollar settlement still leads to the reference significance of balance of payments and the impact of the use of regional currency on the balance of payments of each country from the European debt crisis. The study of this chapter is mainly based on the prospect of the possible development direction of the cross-border settlement of the RMB after the three years of development trend. From the logic and experience, it speculates on its impact on China's international balance of payments. Since the current import and export trade settlement and two-way direct investment of RMB have been open, the initial RMB offshore financial market has also been formed. In the future, we need to further expand the transaction settlement and investment scale of RMB and develop more people. Money products and services promote the smooth development of our domestic and foreign economy from all aspects. From the US dollar settlement we can see that the American balance of payments model is a complementary form of the current account and capital finance project. The European debt crisis is not due to the defects of the euro itself, but in the financial crisis of some countries in the euro zone. We need to learn from the experience and supervision of the European bond market, to develop our bond market and to avoid similar tragedies and avoid similar tragedies while promoting China's people's currency to protect its value. Happen.
The last chapter puts forward the policy suggestions of the cross-border settlement of RMB and the adjustment of domestic structure to promote the balance of international balance of payment in China. It is mainly to improve the proportion of industries with higher income and comparative advantage in cross-border trade, and further encourage the RMB direct investment project to go out and lead in and expand the two-way circulation channel of RMB; We should establish and perfect the RMB bond market, provide the place for RMB protection, further enhance the international service level of the RMB, and gradually adjust the internal economic structure of our country. The balance of payments is mainly reflected in the currency receipts and payments of our country in the process of foreign exchanges, regardless of which kind of trade settlement and investment settlement are adopted In the end, we need to start with trade and investment itself. Therefore, we need to improve our domestic economic structure and the industrial proportion of foreign trade by means of the easterly wind of RMB cross-border settlement. In the foreign investment of RMB, we should ensure the rational layout, increase the income and attract the heavy quality of foreign direct investment. The radiation effects of quantity and technology will promote the rational and balanced development of China's economic and financial sectors.
The main innovation of this article lies in the innovation of the topic selection and the innovation of the research perspective, the initial intention of the trial operation of the RMB cross-border settlement, the development course and the future prospects and the national conditions of our country's long-term balance of payments, and the experience of the experience of the relations between the currency and the crisis of the United States and Europe in the complex and changeable external environment. It puts forward some adjustment suggestions that are suitable for the balanced development of China's economy and improve the RMB's international monetary function.
Because of the lack of direct related theory and the limited ability to select effective information, there are still many shortcomings in this paper, especially the lack of depth, and the data is still not sufficiently detailed. The macro judgment of the future development trend in this field and the suggestions for its own policy are still tender, hoping to work in the future. There can be more practice to stimulate inspiration and more time to do in-depth research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6

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