本文選題：人民幣 + 跨境流通　； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,在改革開放政策推動(dòng)之下,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)始終保持平穩(wěn)較快的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭,綜合國(guó)力顯著提高,國(guó)際地位不斷增強(qiáng),相應(yīng)地人民幣幣值也保持穩(wěn)中有升的勢(shì)態(tài)。伴隨著人民幣幣值的穩(wěn)步提升,人民幣在國(guó)際上的認(rèn)可度和國(guó)際貿(mào)易結(jié)算中的使用量也越來越高,人民幣在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上流通量逐漸增加。隨著人民幣跨境流通數(shù)量的不斷擴(kuò)大,關(guān)于人民幣跨境流通的研究也逐漸增多。本文在總結(jié)和吸收國(guó)內(nèi)外大量研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)人民幣境外流通數(shù)量進(jìn)行估算從而進(jìn)一步研究影響人民幣跨境流通的因素,最終提出促進(jìn)人民幣跨境流通的政策建議,以推進(jìn)我國(guó)人民幣逐步邁向國(guó)際化。本文主要分五個(gè)部分對(duì)人民幣跨境流通及其影響因素進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的分析和研究。 第一部分主要闡述了本文的選題背景和意義,并對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外的研究成果進(jìn)行了回顧,在總結(jié)已有研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上提出了本文的補(bǔ)充意義。第二部分在弄清了國(guó)際貨幣及貨幣國(guó)際化的內(nèi)涵、人民幣跨境流通實(shí)質(zhì)的基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步闡述了貨幣國(guó)際化的相關(guān)理論,包括計(jì)價(jià)貨幣選擇理論、貨幣替代理論以及最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論等,為以后各章的展開分析提供了理論框架基礎(chǔ)。第三部分對(duì)人民幣境外流通分布及其對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響進(jìn)行介紹。我們可以看出人民幣在周邊國(guó)家和地區(qū)的流通已經(jīng)十分普遍,但是在國(guó)際范圍內(nèi)的流通還有待增加。通過分析對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)總的來說人民幣跨境流通對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響是利大于弊的。第四部分是對(duì)人民幣跨境流通及其影響因素的實(shí)證分析,主要分為兩個(gè)步驟。第一步是人民幣境外流通數(shù)量的估算,利用間接法估算出1999到2010年人民幣境外流通數(shù)量,發(fā)現(xiàn)自亞洲金融危機(jī)以來人民幣在境外流通的數(shù)量具有逐年增加的趨勢(shì)。第二步是人民幣跨境流通影響因素的實(shí)證分析,從實(shí)證結(jié)果可以看出我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力、人民幣的幣值、對(duì)外貿(mào)易總額、國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)水平等對(duì)人民幣境外存量具有重要影響。最后,本文根據(jù)前面的實(shí)證分析提出了促進(jìn)人民幣參與跨境貿(mào)易結(jié)算推動(dòng)人民幣逐步邁向國(guó)際化的政策建議：第一,維持我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)較快的增長(zhǎng)速度；第二,保持人民幣匯率穩(wěn)中有升；第三,強(qiáng)化人民幣跨境流通的管理和監(jiān)測(cè)；第四,推動(dòng)人民幣參與國(guó)際結(jié)算。
[Abstract]:In recent years, driven by the policy of reform and opening up, China's economy has always maintained a steady and rapid growth momentum, the overall national strength has improved significantly, the international position has been continuously strengthened, and the corresponding value of the renminbi has also maintained a steady and rising trend. With the steady improvement of the value of RMB, the RMB is used more and more in the international trade settlement, and the circulation of RMB in the international market is gradually increasing. With the continuous expansion of the amount of RMB cross-border circulation, the research on RMB cross-border circulation is gradually increasing. On the basis of summing up and absorbing a large number of domestic and foreign research results, this paper estimates the amount of RMB circulation abroad and further studies the factors affecting the cross-border circulation of RMB, and finally puts forward some policy recommendations to promote the cross-border circulation of RMB. In order to promote China's RMB step by step towards internationalization. This paper mainly divided into five parts to analyze and study the RMB cross-border circulation and its influencing factors. The first part mainly expounds the background and significance of this paper, reviews the research results at home and abroad, and puts forward the supplementary significance of this paper on the basis of summarizing the existing research results. The second part, on the basis of clarifying the connotation of international currency and currency internationalization, and the essence of RMB cross-border circulation, further expounds the relevant theories of currency internationalization, including the pricing currency choice theory. The theory of currency substitution and the theory of optimal currency area provide the theoretical framework for the later chapters. The third part introduces the distribution of RMB circulation and its impact on China's economy. We can see that the circulation of RMB in neighboring countries and regions is already very common, but the circulation in the international scope still needs to be increased. Based on the analysis of the impact on China's economy, we find that, in general, the impact of RMB cross-border circulation on China's economy is more beneficial than harmful. The fourth part is the empirical analysis of RMB cross-border circulation and its influencing factors, mainly divided into two steps. The first step is the estimation of the amount of RMB circulation abroad, which is estimated by indirect method from 1999 to 2010. It is found that the amount of RMB circulating abroad has been increasing year by year since the Asian financial crisis. The second step is the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the cross-border circulation of RMB. From the empirical results, we can see that the economic strength, the value of RMB, the total foreign trade, the domestic price level and so on have important influence on the stock of RMB offshore. Finally, according to the previous empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote RMB participation in cross-border trade settlement to promote the gradual internationalization of RMB: first, to maintain the faster growth rate of China's economy; second, Keep the RMB exchange rate steady and rising; third, strengthen the management and monitoring of the cross-border circulation of RMB; fourth, promote RMB participation in international settlement.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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