本文選題：貨幣政策 + 區(qū)域效應(yīng)��； 參考：《東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：從理論上講,一個統(tǒng)一的貨幣政策有效實施的前提是貨幣區(qū)內(nèi)各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟的均質(zhì)化和經(jīng)濟周期的一致性。但現(xiàn)實往往并非如此,統(tǒng)一的貨幣政策總會產(chǎn)生區(qū)域效應(yīng)。中國作為一個典型的大國,地區(qū)之間經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的差距隨著經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展和生活水平的顯著提高而拉大。貨幣政策作為一個總量性質(zhì)的調(diào)控政策,應(yīng)該在全國范圍內(nèi)保持統(tǒng)一,但目前“一刀切”的政策嚴重忽視了區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中的巨大差異,并在大大降低貨幣政策有效性的同時,也進一步拉大了地區(qū)間經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的差距。因此,貨幣政策的區(qū)域效應(yīng)已成為一個迫切需要解決的問題,我國貨幣當(dāng)局在實施統(tǒng)一貨幣政策的同時應(yīng)適度注意區(qū)域差異,從而力求避免貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)的影響。 目前,國內(nèi)對貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)的研究剛起步不久,無論是理論研究的深度和廣度,還是實證研究的方法和論證,很多地方都需要加以改進。對貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)形成機制的深入研究,有助于提高我國貨幣政策的有效性,進而促進我國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟和金融的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。 本文第一部分是導(dǎo)論部分。這部分首先給出選題的來源及意義,對貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)的研究進行一個簡單的回顧,從中歸納出主流的研究方法和需要進一步討論的問題。 第二部分是我國貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)存在性的理論分析。這部分首先進行區(qū)域的劃分：選擇2001-2010年間31個省市的市場化指數(shù),對他們的平均值做聚類分析。然后以最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論為切入點,介紹構(gòu)成最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)的標(biāo)準,最后對比分析我國是否滿足各項標(biāo)準,從而初步判斷我國是否存在貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)。 第三部分是我國貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)存在性的實證檢驗。這部分首先通過VAR模型選擇我國貨幣政策的衡量指標(biāo),再對相關(guān)經(jīng)濟變量采用協(xié)整檢驗得到協(xié)整方程以反映貨幣政策與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟增長的長期動態(tài)關(guān)系,從而實證檢驗我國是否存在貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)。 第四部分是我國貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)的原因分析。這部分指出貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)根本上是由總需求和總供給之間的相互作用造成的,所以首先從總需求角度分析貨幣政策對各區(qū)域消費、投資和凈出口需求產(chǎn)生的影響差異及其原因,其次從總供給角度分析各區(qū)域供給曲線的差異及其原因。 第五部分是結(jié)論與建議。這部分首先對前面的內(nèi)容做一個簡單的小結(jié),得到以下幾個結(jié)論：第一,我國尚不是最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)；第二,我國應(yīng)該選擇貨幣供應(yīng)量作為貨幣政策衡量指標(biāo)；第三,我國存在貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)；第四,從總需求角度分析貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)的原因主要是各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平和收入水平不均衡,市場化程度和對外開放程度不一致,以及借貸市場發(fā)展程度不同步等。從總供給角度分析貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)的原因主要是各地區(qū)價格變化差異、預(yù)期能力差異、勞動生產(chǎn)率差異和資源稟賦差異等。其次再根據(jù)前面的理論與實證分析,結(jié)合中國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀提出可行的政策建議：一方面可以通過財政政策、產(chǎn)業(yè)政策等措施協(xié)調(diào)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)與發(fā)展水平；另一方面可以在統(tǒng)一的大前提下,實行有差別的區(qū)域貨幣政策,以減緩區(qū)域經(jīng)濟差距的擴大。 本文在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上,采用理論與實際相結(jié)合的方法,以一個新的角度研究了我國貨幣政策的區(qū)域效應(yīng),并結(jié)合實際提出了可行的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In theory , a unified monetary policy is effectively implemented on the premise of the homogenization of the economy and the consistency of the economic cycle in the currency area . However , the reality is not the same , and the unified monetary policy always produces regional effect . As a typical big country , the gap between the region ' s economic development and the economic development of the region is greatly reduced . The regional effect of monetary policy is a problem that needs to be solved urgently . Therefore , the monetary authorities should pay attention to regional differences while implementing uniform monetary policy , so as to avoid the effect of monetary policy regional effect .

At present , the domestic research on the regional effect of monetary policy has just started , whether the depth and breadth of the theoretical research , or the method and the demonstration of the empirical research , many places need to be improved . In - depth study on the mechanism of the regional effect of monetary policy can help to improve the effectiveness of the monetary policy in our country and further promote the coordinated development of regional economy and finance in our country .

The first part of this paper is the introduction part . This part firstly gives the origin and significance of the choice questions , and makes a simple review on the study of the regional effect of monetary policy , from which the mainstream research methods and the further discussion need to be discussed .

The second part is the theoretical analysis of the existence of the regional effect of monetary policy in China . This part is divided into four regions : selecting the market - oriented index of 31 provinces in 2001 - 2010 , clustering the average value of them . Then , taking the best monetary zone theory as the entry point , the paper introduces the criteria of forming the optimal monetary zone , and finally , compares and analyzes whether our country meets the criteria , so as to judge whether the monetary policy area effect exists in our country .

The third part is an empirical test of the existence of monetary policy regional effect in China . This part firstly selects China ' s monetary policy measurement index through VAR model , and then adopts co - integration test on relevant economic variables to reflect the long - term dynamic relationship between monetary policy and regional economic growth , so as to empirically test whether the monetary policy area effect exists in our country .

The fourth part is the reason analysis of the regional effect of monetary policy in China . In this part , it is pointed out that the regional effect of monetary policy is caused by the interaction between total demand and total supply .

The fifth part is the conclusion and suggestion . This part firstly makes a brief summary of the previous contents , and obtains the following conclusions : First , our country is not the optimal currency area ;
Secondly , we should choose the money supply as the measure of monetary policy ;
Third , China has monetary policy area effect ;
Fourth , the analysis of the regional effect of monetary policy from the angle of total demand is mainly because the economic development level and the income level are not balanced , the degree of marketization is not consistent with the degree of opening to the outside world , and the development degree of the lending market is not synchronized .
On the other hand , different regional monetary policies can be implemented on the premise of unification , so as to alleviate the expansion of regional economic gap .

Based on the previous research , this paper studies the regional effect of China ' s monetary policy in a new angle with the combination of theory and practice , and puts forward some feasible policy suggestions .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F224;F822.0

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