本文選題：人民幣國際化 + 國際儲備　； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文將在梳理英鎊、美元、馬克、歐元、日元五大貨幣國際化經(jīng)驗的基礎(chǔ)上,總結(jié)出影響人民幣國際化的重要因素；以國際儲備份額為衡量指標(biāo),構(gòu)建并估計一國貨幣國際化程度的測度模型,并對二十年后人民幣國際儲備份額作出科學(xué)預(yù)測。 通過總結(jié)五大貨幣國際化史發(fā)現(xiàn),貨幣的崛起都有其一定的歷史機遇,同時離不開經(jīng)濟發(fā)展規(guī)模、金融市場發(fā)展程度以及幣值穩(wěn)定三大因素；而目前的中國尚需在后兩個方面倍加努力。通過實證研究發(fā)現(xiàn),經(jīng)濟規(guī)模、資本項目開放、匯率波動、貨幣慣性是影響國際儲備份額的重要因素,而貨幣慣性在歐元誕生后有所減弱,這將有利于人民幣挑戰(zhàn)現(xiàn)有國際貨幣；通過情景模擬,本文還預(yù)測了二十年后人民幣在國際儲備中的份額,其中最樂觀的情景下人民幣份額將達(dá)到20%以上,但這需要國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟持續(xù)較快增長,且資本項目開放同步推進(jìn)。鑒于上述實證研究,本文認(rèn)為,目前中國應(yīng)當(dāng)抓住后金融危機這一歷史性契機,在中國經(jīng)濟總量、貿(mào)易總量逐步成為世界第一的同時,輔之以資本項目有序開放、國內(nèi)與離岸金融市場進(jìn)一步發(fā)展等措施,從而使人民幣與美元、歐元一起并肩成為三大國際貨幣。
[Abstract]:This paper will sum up the important factors that influence the internationalization of RMB on the basis of combing the internationalization experience of sterling, US dollar, mark, euro and yen. This paper constructs and estimates the model of a country's currency internationalization degree, and makes a scientific prediction of the RMB international reserve share after 20 years. By summing up the history of the internationalization of the five major currencies, it is found that the rise of money has its own historical opportunities, and at the same time it is inseparable from the scale of economic development, the degree of development of the financial market and the stability of the currency. China, however, still needs to redouble its efforts in the latter two areas. Through empirical research, it is found that economic scale, capital account opening, exchange rate fluctuation and currency inertia are the important factors affecting the share of international reserves, and currency inertia has weakened after the birth of the euro. This will help the RMB challenge the existing international currency. Through scenario simulations, the paper also predicts the RMB share in international reserves in 20 years' time, and in the most optimistic scenario, the RMB share will reach more than 20%. But this needs the domestic economy to maintain the fast growth, and the capital account opening advances simultaneously. In view of the above empirical research, this paper holds that China should seize the historic opportunity of the post-financial crisis at present, while China's economic aggregate and total trade volume gradually become the first in the world, supplemented by the orderly opening of capital account. Measures such as further development of domestic and offshore financial markets have made the renminbi, the dollar and the euro side by side as the three major international currencies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F224

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