本文選題：存款準備金率 + 銀行信貸��； 參考：《復旦大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：存款準備金制度自1984年建立以來,逐漸成為了央行調(diào)節(jié)流動性、調(diào)控貨幣供給的重要政策工具。自2006年以來,央行頻繁調(diào)整存款準備金率,至今已達36次,其政策效果也逐漸成為各界關(guān)注的熱點。本文以銀行信貸總量作為貨幣政策傳導的中介目標,以總產(chǎn)出為最終目標,將存款準備金政策的傳導過程劃分為內(nèi)部傳導與外部傳導兩階段,旨在通過運用協(xié)整檢驗、VEC模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)等計量方法,對兩階段存款準備金政策的有效性進行實證分析。 在存款準備金政策的內(nèi)部傳導階段,通過將央行存款準備金政策、公開市場操作工具、再貼現(xiàn)政策對商業(yè)銀行信貸總量的影響進行橫向比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)存準率在內(nèi)部傳導過程中相對低效。在此基礎(chǔ)上,引入外匯占款變量對模型進行拓展,通過實證分析,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)存款準備金政策對信貸供給的影響仍然較弱；而另一方面,我們將銀行信貸與外匯占款同時作為一個目標體系時,發(fā)現(xiàn)存款準備金率對外匯占款的影響超過對銀行信貸總量的影響,說明當前中國貨幣政策的實施受制于對沖外匯占款的需要。 在外部傳導階段,我們分析了銀行信貸、貨幣供應(yīng)量M1、M2對最終目標——總產(chǎn)出的影響作用,發(fā)現(xiàn)銀行信貸的影響效應(yīng)雖然略弱于貨幣供應(yīng)量,但仍然對總產(chǎn)出有著顯著影響,可以得到外部傳導相對有效的結(jié)論。 本文還從商業(yè)銀行資產(chǎn)負債表的角度對影響存準率有效性的因素進行分析。通過對2006年至2011年商業(yè)銀行資金來源與運用情況進行經(jīng)驗性分析,得出商業(yè)銀行可以通過同業(yè)拆借或配置有價證券等方式來削弱存款準備金政策的有效性。 最后,本文提出了若干提高存款準備金政策有效性的建議,包括改善準備金資產(chǎn)的構(gòu)成、擴大準備金繳存適用的負債范圍、適當降低法定存款準備金率、建立法定二級準備金、取消準備金付息制度等,并對中國存款準備金政策的未來發(fā)展趨勢進行了展望。
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of the deposit reserve system in 1984, it has gradually become an important policy tool for the central bank to regulate liquidity and regulate the supply of money. Since 2006, the central bank has adjusted the deposit reserve rate frequently, and has reached 36 times, and its policy effect has gradually become a hot spot of concern. The intermediate target, taking the total output as the ultimate goal, divides the transfer process of the deposit reserve policy into two stages of internal conduction and external conduction. The purpose is to make an empirical analysis of the validity of the two stage deposit reserve policy by means of cointegration test, VEC model, impulse response function and other measurement methods.
In the internal transmission phase of the deposit reserve policy, the effect of the central bank deposit reserve policy, the open market operation tool and the rediscount policy on the total credit of the commercial banks is compared horizontally, and the relative low efficiency is found in the internal transmission process. On this basis, the model is expanded by introducing foreign exchange occupied variables. In the case of empirical analysis, we find that the deposit reserve policy has a weak impact on the supply of credit. On the other hand, when we take bank credit and foreign exchange accounts as a target system, we find that the impact of the deposit reserve ratio on the amount of foreign exchange accounts for more than the total amount of bank credit, indicating the current implementation of China's monetary policy. It is made to hedge against the need for foreign exchange.
In the external conduction phase, we analyze the effect of bank credit, money supply M1 and M2 on the final target - total output, and find that the impact effect of bank credit is slightly weaker than the money supply, but it still has a significant impact on the total output, and can get a relatively effective conclusion from external conduction.
From the perspective of the balance sheet of commercial banks, this paper analyses the factors that affect the validity of the deposit rate. Through the empirical analysis of the source and application of the commercial banks from 2006 to 2011, it is concluded that the commercial banks can weaken the validity of the deposit reserve policy by means of interbank lending or the allocation of securities.
Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the effectiveness of the deposit reserve policy, including improving the composition of the reserve assets, expanding the scope of the applicable liabilities of the reserve, reducing the rate of the statutory deposit reserve, establishing a statutory two level reserve, canceling the reserve rate of reserve, and the future development of the policy of China's deposit reserve. The trend is looking forward.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.4;F832.1;F832.22

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本文編號：2030934