中國(guó)商業(yè)銀行盈利能力測(cè)度及影響因素研究
本文選題:商業(yè)銀行 + 盈利能力; 參考:《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文
【摘要】:面對(duì)逐漸全球化的中國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)和日益激烈的行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng),如何提高商業(yè)銀行的盈利能力已成為各大行必須積極思考的問題。隨著改革的不斷深化,中國(guó)商業(yè)銀行進(jìn)入一個(gè)全新的整合發(fā)展時(shí)期,在這段時(shí)期內(nèi)如果能夠抓住機(jī)會(huì),走出特色化發(fā)展路徑,將會(huì)成為銀行業(yè)的風(fēng)向標(biāo)。因此,不論是理論界還是實(shí)務(wù)界,已有大量文獻(xiàn)對(duì)中國(guó)商業(yè)銀行的盈利能力進(jìn)行探討。但現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)大多以總資產(chǎn)收益率來(lái)衡量銀行的盈利能力,研究資本充足情況、資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債結(jié)構(gòu)等因素對(duì)銀行盈利能力的影響,未能準(zhǔn)確反映該銀行的發(fā)展?jié)撡|(zhì)及可能的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),也未能從整個(gè)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的角度來(lái)明晰銀行的改革方向。 本文基于中國(guó)商業(yè)銀行股份制改革及利率市場(chǎng)化改革的背景,以20家商業(yè)銀行2005年—2010年的數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,對(duì)中國(guó)商業(yè)銀行目前的盈利狀況進(jìn)行評(píng)估,并分析其影響因素。本文主要分為五大部分:第一章闡述了商業(yè)銀行改革的現(xiàn)狀和研究其盈利能力的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。第二章從商業(yè)銀行盈利能力評(píng)價(jià)研究、商業(yè)銀行盈利能力影響因素研究?jī)蓚(gè)方面,對(duì)現(xiàn)有的文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行總結(jié)性地歸納與概括。第三章是理論分析部分,在進(jìn)一步明確商業(yè)銀行盈利能力概念和衡量方式的基礎(chǔ)上,從宏觀、中觀、微觀三個(gè)方面分析了影響其盈利能力的因素,并提出了本文的研究假設(shè)。第四章是實(shí)證分析部分,主要分為兩部分,第一部分對(duì)文章的被解釋變量進(jìn)行重新測(cè)度,即選用10個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行因子分析,得出20家商業(yè)銀行的綜合盈利能力分?jǐn)?shù)及排名;第二部分以國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)率作為宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的替代變量,以存款準(zhǔn)備金率作為中觀貨幣政策的替代變量,以股權(quán)集中度、國(guó)有股占比、外資股占比作為微觀股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)的替代變量,建立多元回歸模型,分析宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境、中觀貨幣政策、微觀股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)三個(gè)因素對(duì)商業(yè)銀行綜合盈利能力的影響。在進(jìn)一步論證以前研究結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上,本文的實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,GDP增長(zhǎng)率越高、存款準(zhǔn)備金率越高,商業(yè)銀行的盈利能力越強(qiáng);公司股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)越分散,商業(yè)銀行的盈利能力越強(qiáng);國(guó)家持股比例越高,商業(yè)銀行的盈利能力越弱;外資持股比例越高,商業(yè)銀行的盈利能力就越強(qiáng)。第五章是對(duì)策建議和未來(lái)研究展望。 本文可能的創(chuàng)新在于從初始投入、資產(chǎn)的使用效率以及過去的經(jīng)營(yíng)情況等多個(gè)方面入手,選取10個(gè)比較有代表意義的指標(biāo),得出銀行的綜合盈利能力分?jǐn)?shù),以此對(duì)商業(yè)銀行的盈利能力進(jìn)行客觀、合理、全面的判斷。另外,本文所選取的解釋變量是基于中國(guó)商業(yè)銀行改革背景下提出的,并非直接可以從報(bào)表中得到的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),以期在解釋財(cái)務(wù)信息的同時(shí)更能反映政策引導(dǎo)、股權(quán)改制的真實(shí)作用。
[Abstract]:In the face of the increasingly globalized financial market in China and the increasingly fierce industry competition, how to improve the profitability of commercial banks has become a problem that the banks must actively consider. With the deepening of the reform, Chinese commercial banks have entered a new period of integration and development. If they can seize the opportunity and walk out of the characteristic development path, they will become the vane of the banking industry. Therefore, both theoretical and practical circles, there have been a lot of literature on the profitability of Chinese commercial banks. However, most of the existing literatures measure the profitability of banks by the rate of return on total assets, and study the influence of capital adequacy, asset quality, structure of assets and liabilities on the profitability of banks. Failed to accurately reflect the bank's development potential and possible risks, nor to clarify the direction of the bank's reform from the perspective of the market economy as a whole. Based on the background of joint-stock system reform and interest rate marketization reform of China's commercial banks, this paper takes the data of 20 commercial banks from 2005 to 2010 as a sample to evaluate the current profit situation of Chinese commercial banks and analyze its influencing factors. This paper is divided into five parts: the first chapter describes the current situation of commercial bank reform and the practical significance of studying its profitability. The second chapter summarizes and generalizes the existing literature from two aspects: the evaluation of commercial banks' profitability and the study of the influencing factors of commercial banks' profitability. The third chapter is the theoretical analysis part. On the basis of further clarifying the concept and measurement of commercial banks' profitability, the author analyzes the factors that affect the profitability of commercial banks from three aspects: macro, meso and micro, and puts forward the research hypotheses of this paper. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis, mainly divided into two parts, the first part of the article explained variables re-measure, that is, select 10 financial indicators for factor analysis, get 20 commercial banks' comprehensive profitability score and ranking; The second part takes the GDP growth rate as the substitute variable of the macroeconomic environment, takes the reserve requirement ratio as the substitute variable of the meso-monetary policy, and takes the degree of equity concentration as the proportion of state-owned shares. As a substitute variable of micro equity structure, the foreign capital share ratio is used to establish multiple regression model, to analyze the influence of macroeconomic environment, meso monetary policy and micro equity structure on the comprehensive profitability of commercial banks. On the basis of the previous research results, the empirical results show that the higher the GDP growth rate, the higher the reserve ratio, the stronger the profitability of commercial banks, the more dispersed the corporate equity structure, the stronger the profitability of commercial banks. The higher the national shareholding ratio, the weaker the profitability of commercial banks; the higher the proportion of foreign ownership, the stronger the profitability of commercial banks. The fifth chapter is the countermeasure suggestion and the future research prospect. The possible innovation of this paper is to select 10 representative indicators from the aspects of initial input, efficiency of asset use and past operating conditions, and get the score of comprehensive profitability of banks. In this way, the profitability of commercial banks is judged objectively, reasonably and comprehensively. In addition, the explanatory variables selected in this paper are based on the background of the reform of China's commercial banks, and are not directly available from the financial statements, in order to reflect the policy guidance while explaining the financial information. The real function of equity reform.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2012
【分類號(hào)】:F832.33;F224
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