本文選題：中美貿(mào)易順差 + 通貨膨脹　； 參考：《安徽農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來，特別是加入世貿(mào)組織之后，中國(guó)的出口保持強(qiáng)勁的增勢(shì)，貿(mào)易總額逐年遞增，中美貿(mào)易額也不斷增長(zhǎng)，中美貿(mào)易順差也呈現(xiàn)不斷遞增趨勢(shì)，中美貿(mào)易順差額在中國(guó)的順差額占據(jù)很大的比例。諸多研究表明，貿(mào)易順差造成我國(guó)輸入型通貨膨脹。在貿(mào)易順差方面貢獻(xiàn)最大者歸屬美國(guó)，與此同時(shí)中美貿(mào)易摩擦頻繁發(fā)生，再加上美國(guó)最近幾年經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣及政策措施給我國(guó)貿(mào)易造成的沖擊及高的通貨膨脹似乎有著必然聯(lián)系，為了進(jìn)一步研究我國(guó)通貨膨脹的根源，解決我國(guó)的通貨膨脹的部分問題，從中美貿(mào)易順差著手有著重要的意義。 第一部分引言，主要介紹寫作背景及研究的目的和意義，綜述了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)輸入型通貨膨脹以及中美貿(mào)易順差的問題的研究成果，并對(duì)本文的研究方法和結(jié)構(gòu)安排做一說明。基于2011年是我國(guó)通脹較為嚴(yán)重的一年，投資尤其是房地產(chǎn)受到政府的調(diào)控，且消費(fèi)一直不足，出口依然呈現(xiàn)相對(duì)較好的態(tài)勢(shì)的背景下，研究中美貿(mào)易順差問題，對(duì)解決我國(guó)的輸入型通貨膨脹問題有著實(shí)際借鑒意義和指導(dǎo)意義。本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)是基于國(guó)與國(guó)的角度，采用因子分析，逐步分析法對(duì)中美貿(mào)易順差的因素進(jìn)行提取進(jìn)而研究中美貿(mào)易順差對(duì)通貨膨脹影響。 第二部分介紹通貨膨脹的基礎(chǔ)理論知識(shí)，如凱恩斯學(xué)派通貨膨脹理論，貨幣學(xué)派通貨膨脹理論，斯堪的納維亞模型等，并分析貿(mào)易順差引起通貨膨脹的傳導(dǎo)途徑 第三部分介紹我國(guó)最近18年的貿(mào)易狀況以及中美貿(mào)易發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，將中美貿(mào)易額與我國(guó)的整個(gè)貿(mào)易額相比較，發(fā)現(xiàn)中美貿(mào)易額和我國(guó)的貿(mào)易額保持同步增長(zhǎng)的態(tài)勢(shì)，且中美貿(mào)易額占我國(guó)貿(mào)易額的比例逐年遞增，表明我國(guó)的貿(mào)易額和貿(mào)易順差額的最大貢獻(xiàn)歸屬于中美貿(mào)易。然后分析了中美貿(mào)易順差的原因。 第四部分為實(shí)證分析部分，基于上述可能引起中美貿(mào)易順差的因素，對(duì)這些因素進(jìn)行了因子分析，，逐步分析法提取對(duì)中美貿(mào)易順差的重要因素，然后基于這些重要因素與我國(guó)的通貨膨脹（物價(jià)指數(shù)CPI）構(gòu)造計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型，研究中美貿(mào)易順差與我國(guó)通貨膨脹之間的關(guān)系和對(duì)我國(guó)通貨膨脹的影響程度。 第五部分，基于第四部分研究結(jié)果，提出在中美貿(mào)易中提高我國(guó)貿(mào)易利得的措施和減少中美貿(mào)易順差對(duì)我國(guó)通貨膨脹的影響的政策和建議。 第六部分，總結(jié)全文，本文從中美貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀著手，基于在對(duì)外貿(mào)易角度通貨膨脹傳導(dǎo)途徑及理論基礎(chǔ)，對(duì)中美貿(mào)易順差的因素與通貨膨脹兩者之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，進(jìn)而提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, especially after China's accession to the WTO, China's exports have maintained a strong growth trend, with the total volume of trade increasing year by year, the trade volume of China and the United States also increasing, and the Sino-US trade surplus showing a trend of increasing constantly. The Sino-American trade balance accounts for a large proportion of the favorable balance in China. Many studies show that China's import inflation is caused by trade surplus. The largest contribution to the trade surplus is attributed to the United States. At the same time, there are frequent trade frictions between China and the United States. In addition, the economic recession in the United States in recent years and the impact of policies and measures on China's trade and high inflation seem to have a certain connection. In order to further study the root causes of inflation in China and solve some problems of inflation in China, it is of great significance to start with the trade surplus between China and the United States. The first part introduces the background of writing and the purpose and significance of the research. It summarizes the research results of domestic and foreign scholars on imported inflation and Sino-US trade surplus, and explains the research methods and structure of this paper. Based on the fact that 2011 is a year of serious inflation in China, the investment, especially real estate, is regulated by the government, and the consumption has been insufficient, and the export is still showing a relatively good situation, the trade surplus between China and the United States is studied. It has practical reference and guiding significance to solve the problem of imported inflation in our country. The innovation of this paper is based on the point of view of countries, using factor analysis and stepwise analysis to extract the factors of Sino-US trade surplus, and then to study the effect of Sino-US trade surplus on inflation. The second part introduces the basic theories of inflation, such as Keynesian inflation theory, monetary inflation theory, Scandinavian model, etc. The third part introduces the trade situation of our country in the last 18 years and the current situation of Sino-US trade development, and compares the Sino-American trade volume with the whole trade volume of our country. It is found that the Sino-American trade volume and China's trade volume keep increasing synchronously, and the proportion of Sino-US trade volume to China's trade volume is increasing year by year, which indicates that the biggest contribution of China's trade volume and trade balance is attributed to Sino-US trade. Then it analyzes the causes of the trade surplus between China and the United States. The fourth part is the empirical analysis part, based on the above factors that may cause Sino-US trade surplus, the factors are analyzed, and the important factors of Sino-US trade surplus are extracted by stepwise analysis. Then based on these important factors and China's inflation (CPI) econometric model is constructed to study the relationship between Sino-US trade surplus and China's inflation and the degree of influence on China's inflation. In the fifth part, based on the research results of the fourth part, the author puts forward some measures to increase the gains from trade between China and the United States and the policy and suggestions to reduce the impact of Sino-US trade surplus on China's inflation. The sixth part, summarizes the full text, this article starts from the Sino-US trade present situation, based on the foreign trade angle inflation transmission way and the theory foundation, carries on the empirical research to the Sino-US trade surplus factor and the inflation relations. And then put forward policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F752.7;F822.5;F224

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