本文選題：人民幣升值 + 汽車行業(yè)　； 參考：《上海外國語大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟經(jīng)濟的重要支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)，中國已成為“世界汽車生產(chǎn)大國”。2010年，我國汽車行業(yè)實現(xiàn)工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值43049億元，同比增長36.2%�！笆濉逼陂g，中國汽車年產(chǎn)量將達到2500萬輛，工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值將達到4.5萬億元，汽車工業(yè)增加值占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）的比例將達到3%。2010年，我國的汽車產(chǎn)品進出口額達到了1085.31億美元，占我國進出口總額的3.65%，汽車行業(yè)是重要的貿(mào)易部門。匯率的變動會影響一國貿(mào)易，本文以中國的汽車行業(yè)進出口貿(mào)易為研究對象，，分別分析了可能影響汽車行業(yè)進口和出口的因素，包括人民幣實際有效匯率變動對這兩者的影響，并進一步從人民幣匯率升值風(fēng)險的角度，為汽車產(chǎn)品進出口企業(yè)應(yīng)對匯率風(fēng)險提供政策建議。本文主要做了以下研究工作： 1.梳理了現(xiàn)有匯率和一國整體進出口貿(mào)易的有關(guān)理論和研究成果，以及匯率變動對一國整體進出口貿(mào)易影響和對行業(yè)的影響有關(guān)文獻，討論了已有研究的優(yōu)點和不足，不僅為本文的研究提供了理論工具以及可參考和借鑒的資料，而且發(fā)掘了進一步研究的空間。 2.闡述了中國汽車行業(yè)進出口現(xiàn)狀，并對影響中國汽車行業(yè)進口和出口的可能因素進行了分析。 3.利用分析得到的變量和可得數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建模型做定量分析，分別構(gòu)建一個中國汽車行業(yè)進口的影響因素模型和一個中國汽車行業(yè)出口的影響因素模型，同時建立各自的擴展方程。在實證后分析了回歸結(jié)果，得出到目前為止，人民幣實際有效匯率的變動對于汽車行業(yè)進口和出口影響都不顯著的結(jié)論。 4.借鑒已有的研究文獻，試圖從需求彈性不足、實際有效匯率和名義匯率的區(qū)分、收入等其他因素影響更為顯著等方面解釋以上結(jié)論。 5.基于我國目前面臨的貨幣升值壓力，提出汽車企業(yè)應(yīng)該理性對待匯率升值、采取合理規(guī)避匯率風(fēng)險措施、提高自身競爭力等建議。
[Abstract]:The automobile industry is an important pillar industry of the national economy, and China has become a "big country of automobile production in the world". In 2010, the total industrial output value of China's automobile industry reached 4.3049 trillion yuan, an increase of 36.2 percent over the same period last year. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China's annual automobile output will reach 25 million, the total industrial output value will reach 4.5 trillion yuan, and the added value of the automobile industry will account for the proportion of GDP to GDP in 3.2010. The import and export of automobile products in China has reached 108.531 billion US dollars, accounting for 3.65% of the total import and export of our country. Automobile industry is an important trade department. The change of exchange rate will affect the trade of a country. This paper takes the import and export trade of China's automobile industry as the research object, analyzes the factors that may affect the import and export of the automobile industry, including the influence of the change of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on these two factors. Furthermore, from the perspective of RMB exchange rate appreciation risk, policy suggestions are provided for automobile import and export enterprises to deal with exchange rate risk. The main work of this paper is as follows: 1. This paper reviews the relevant theories and research results on the exchange rate and a country's overall import and export trade, as well as the influence of exchange rate changes on a country's overall import and export trade and on the industry, and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the existing studies. It not only provides the theoretical tools for the study of this paper, but also explores the space for further study. This paper expounds the current situation of import and export of China's automobile industry, and analyzes the possible factors affecting the import and export of China's automobile industry. Based on the analysis of variables and available data, a model of influencing factors of China's automobile industry import and a model of influencing factors of Chinese automobile industry's export are constructed, respectively, and their respective expansion equations are established. After the empirical analysis of the regression results, it is concluded that so far, the change of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has no significant impact on the import and export of automobile industry. 4. Drawing on the existing research literature, this paper tries to explain the above conclusions from the following aspects: insufficient elasticity of demand, distinction between real effective exchange rate and nominal exchange rate, and more significant influence of other factors such as income. Based on the pressure of currency appreciation in China at present, the paper puts forward some suggestions that automobile enterprises should treat exchange rate appreciation rationally, take reasonable measures to avoid exchange rate risk and improve their own competitiveness.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海外國語大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F752.6;F832.6;F426.471

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