本文選題：貨幣國際化 + 貨幣政策失效��； 參考：《上海社會科學(xué)院》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：本文以貨幣國際化帶來的資本項目逐步開放及離岸金融市場出現(xiàn)為背景，對貨幣國際化、金融風(fēng)險、金融穩(wěn)定進(jìn)行界定和分析，從貨幣政策失效、經(jīng)常收支失衡、匯率高估及貨幣投機四個方面分析了貨幣國際化與金融穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系，并從資本項目開放策略的角度探討了防范貨幣國際化風(fēng)險的舉措，最后落足到探討人民幣國際化進(jìn)程中的風(fēng)險防范。 本文在結(jié)構(gòu)上分為四個部分共七章。其中，第一章是文獻(xiàn)綜述，第二、三、四、五章分析貨幣國際化風(fēng)險，第六章探討風(fēng)險防范舉措，第七章為主要結(jié)論及政策建議。在序章之后，第一章對國內(nèi)外關(guān)于貨幣國際化、金融風(fēng)險、金融穩(wěn)定的研究進(jìn)行了綜述，并在此基礎(chǔ)上從貨幣國際化的角度對金融穩(wěn)定的衡量進(jìn)行分析與界定。第二章研究貨幣國際化與貨幣政策失效風(fēng)險。首先，區(qū)分貨幣政策的有效性與獨立性，并分析貨幣國際化背景下的貨幣政策獨立性問題；其次，，通過分析制約貨幣政策有效性的因素，來探討人民幣國際化進(jìn)程下維持貨幣政策獨立性的策略。第三章研究貨幣國際化與經(jīng)常收支失衡風(fēng)險。首先，分析經(jīng)常收支失衡與貨幣國際化的相互影響，并探討特里芬難題及超主權(quán)貨幣；其次，通過模型來分析貨幣國際化對經(jīng)常收支失衡的影響；再次，通過分析美元與美國收支赤字的關(guān)系，來研究人民幣國際化進(jìn)程中，經(jīng)常項目下的結(jié)構(gòu)性人民幣輸出策略。第四章研究貨幣國際化與匯率高估風(fēng)險。首先，分析貨幣國際化與匯率變動間的關(guān)系，并探討貨幣國際化背景下的匯率高估及匯率制度選擇問題；其次，通過對比分析德國和日本的本幣非國際化政策的影響，來探討人民幣國際化背景下的匯率高估問題及匯率制度的選擇策略。第五章研究貨幣國際化與貨幣投機風(fēng)險。首先，分析貨幣國際化與貨幣投機風(fēng)險間的相互影響；其次，分析貨幣國際化背景下影響貨幣投機的主要因素，并通過分析20世紀(jì)90年代歐洲貨幣危機案例，來探討人民幣國際化進(jìn)程中對熱錢的監(jiān)管策略。第六章探討貨幣國際化背景下，資本項目開放對前述風(fēng)險的影響，并通過分析亞洲金融危機案例，來探討人民幣國際化進(jìn)程中的資本項目開放策略。第七章歸納和總結(jié)本文的主要結(jié)論及政策建議。 本文的主要觀點是，雖然，人民幣國際化能增強其國際地位、降低匯率風(fēng)險，但從中國目前的經(jīng)濟規(guī)模、金融環(huán)境及相關(guān)的制度建設(shè)來看，人民幣國際化將會是個漸進(jìn)過程。不合時宜地推進(jìn)人民幣國際化將會給我國經(jīng)濟及金融穩(wěn)定帶來挑戰(zhàn)。人民幣國際化初期，在資本項目沒有完全開放及匯率波動彈性相對較小的背景下，貨幣政策的失效風(fēng)險較小，經(jīng)常收支仍能維持順差，匯率高估及貨幣投機風(fēng)險相對較小。不過，隨著人民幣國際化程度的不斷提高，資本項目的逐步開放，這些潛在風(fēng)險可能會逐漸顯現(xiàn)，將對中國的金融穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)生不利影響。因此，資本項目的有序開放、匯率制度彈性的增大、金融市場發(fā)展和深化、加強金融監(jiān)管有效性及推動推動國際貨幣體系改革等策略，有助于人民幣國際化風(fēng)險的降低。
[Abstract]:Based on the gradual opening up of capital items and the emergence of offshore financial market, this paper defines and analyzes currency internationalization, financial risk and financial stability, and analyzes the relationship between monetary internationalization and financial stability from four aspects of monetary policy failure, balance of payments imbalance, exchange rate overvaluation and currency speculation. From the perspective of open policy, this paper probes into the measures to prevent currency internationalization risks, and finally falls to the risk prevention in the process of RMB internationalization.
This article is divided into four parts and seven chapters. The first chapter is literature review, second, third, four and five chapters to analyze the risk of currency internationalization, the sixth chapter discusses the risk prevention measures, the seventh chapter is the main conclusion and policy recommendations. After the preface chapter, the first chapter studies the domestic and foreign research on currency internationalization, financial risk and financial stability. On the basis of this, we analyze and define the measurement of financial stability from the perspective of currency internationalization. The second chapter studies the risk of currency internationalization and monetary policy failure. First, to distinguish the effectiveness and independence of monetary policy, and to analyze the independence of monetary policy under the background of currency internationalization; secondly, through analysis. The factors that restrict the effectiveness of monetary policy to explore the strategy of maintaining the independence of monetary policy under the internationalization of RMB. The third chapter studies the risk of currency internationalization and balance of payments imbalance. First, it analyzes the mutual influence of the balance of payments imbalance and the currency internationalization, and discusses the Terry Finn problem and the supersovereign currency; secondly, through the model To analyze the influence of currency internationalization on the balance of payments imbalance; thirdly, through the analysis of the relationship between the dollar and the United States budget deficit, this paper studies the structural RMB output strategy under the current account in the process of RMB internationalization. The fourth chapter studies the currency internationalization and the overvaluation of the exchange rate. The relationship between exchange rate overvaluation and exchange rate regime selection under the background of currency internationalization is discussed. Secondly, through comparison and analysis of the influence of the non internationalization policy of German and Japanese native currency, the problem of exchange rate overvaluation under the background of RMB internationalization and the choice strategy of exchange rate regime are discussed. The fifth chapter studies the currency internationalization and currency speculation. First, analyze the mutual influence between currency internationalization and currency speculative risk; secondly, analyze the main factors that affect currency speculation under the background of currency internationalization, and discuss the regulatory strategy of hot money in the process of RMB internationalization by analyzing the European monetary crisis case in 1990s. The sixth chapter discusses the currency internationalization back. In the seventh chapter, the seventh chapter summarizes and summarizes the main conclusions and policy suggestions of this article.
The main point of this paper is that, although the internationalization of RMB can enhance its international status and reduce the risk of exchange rate, the internationalization of RMB will be a gradual process in terms of the current economic scale, financial environment and related institutional construction of China. In the early period of RMB internationalization, the failure risk of monetary policy is smaller in the background of incomplete opening of capital items and relatively small elasticity of exchange rate fluctuations. The current balance of payments can still maintain surplus, exchange rate overvaluation and currency speculative risk are relatively small. However, with the continuous improvement of the degree of national currency, capital projects are gradually open. These potential risks may be gradually emerging and will have a negative impact on China's financial stability. Therefore, the orderly opening up of the capital account, the increase in the flexibility of the exchange rate system, the development and deepening of the financial market, the strengthening of the effectiveness of financial supervision and the promotion of the promotion of the reform of the international monetary system will help to reduce the risk of the internationalization of the RMB.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 陳建奇;張岸元;;人民幣國際化研究文獻(xiàn)綜述[J];經(jīng)濟研究參考;2014年06期

2 趙揚帆;張圓圓;;關(guān)于金融風(fēng)險與經(jīng)濟安全的幾點思考[J];現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟信息;2014年04期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 聞黛梅;人民幣跨境結(jié)算背景下套利行為的監(jiān)管政策分析[D];湖南大學(xué);2013年

本文編號：2010659