本文選題：匯率 + 貿(mào)易自由度��； 參考：《東北師范大學(xué)》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：自1978年改革開放以來的34年中,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長,經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力和綜合國力顯著增強(qiáng)。我國經(jīng)濟(jì)總量在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)中所占的份額由2002年的4.4%提高到2011年的10%左右,對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的年平均貢獻(xiàn)率超過20%,成為僅次于美國的世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。但與此同時(shí),資源消耗和環(huán)境壓力巨大,能源消費(fèi)總量已經(jīng)占世界總量的20.3%。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不盡合理,城鄉(xiāng)居民收入差距持續(xù)擴(kuò)大,到2011年達(dá)到3.13：1。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不協(xié)調(diào)、不平衡的問題日益突出。因此,如何處理好我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展問題就值得深入的研究。 中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展不可能脫離世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的大環(huán)境,伴隨著外部經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的日益開放,特別是中國在2001年加入WTO以后,進(jìn)一步融入了國際經(jīng)濟(jì)體系。隨著商品、資本和勞動(dòng)力等要素國際流動(dòng)的加強(qiáng),中國經(jīng)濟(jì)與世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的相互依存度不斷增加。同時(shí),自2005年7月21日中國人民銀行宣布對(duì)人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制進(jìn)行改革以來,截止到2012年12月2日人民幣對(duì)美元匯率中間價(jià)為6.22,累計(jì)升值逾32%。因此,中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)是伴隨著貿(mào)易自由化進(jìn)程的不斷推進(jìn)和匯率水平的變動(dòng)中發(fā)展和改變的。 作為調(diào)節(jié)一國經(jīng)濟(jì)同外界聯(lián)系的重要政策杠桿的匯率水平與貿(mào)易自由度是如何影響和改變國家間和區(qū)域間的總產(chǎn)出水平等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量呢?本文嘗試給出一些解答。首先,本文回顧了匯率變動(dòng)和貿(mào)易自由化對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展影響的歷史和現(xiàn)狀；其次,從理論上分析二者對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響作用；最后,提出合理的政策搭配來促進(jìn)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。 本文的結(jié)構(gòu)安排如下：第一章介紹了研究問題的背景及意義、研究目標(biāo)、研究思路和研究方法等。第二章界定了相關(guān)概念和本文研究的范疇以及文獻(xiàn)綜述。第三章回顧了人民幣匯率的變化特點(diǎn),以及中國經(jīng)濟(jì)在貿(mào)易自由化進(jìn)程中表現(xiàn)出來的不同的階段性特征,并概括性地描述了我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不同時(shí)期的目標(biāo)和存在的問題。第四章和第五章進(jìn)入本文核心內(nèi)容的分析。第四章首先建立了包含匯率水平和貿(mào)易自由度兩個(gè)變量的一般均衡分析框架模型。其次,通過對(duì)模型的求解和數(shù)值分析提出四個(gè)命題,最后,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。第五章共分為五個(gè)小節(jié),第一節(jié)主要是建立了只包含貿(mào)易自由度的兩國三區(qū)域的分析框架模型。第二節(jié)有針對(duì)性的討論了在貿(mào)易自由度的幾種組合下,各經(jīng)濟(jì)參與區(qū)域會(huì)面對(duì)的問題。本章的第三節(jié)是在第一節(jié)的基礎(chǔ)上引入?yún)R率變量,建立包含匯率水平和貿(mào)易自由度的兩國三區(qū)域模型,第四節(jié)討論了在不同貿(mào)易成本下國家間和區(qū)域間經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的規(guī)律。第五節(jié)給出相應(yīng)的政策啟示。最后是本文的總結(jié)。 本文在注重經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析的同時(shí),更偏好理論的研究。并通過對(duì)模型中相關(guān)參數(shù)提出的各種假設(shè),得出了許多具有啟發(fā)性的結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:In the 34 years since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's economic strength and comprehensive national strength have increased significantly. The share of China's total economic output in the world economy has increased from 4.4 percent in 2002 to about 10 percent in 2011, and the annual average contribution rate to world economic growth has exceeded 20 percent, becoming the second largest economy in the world after the United States. But at the same time, resource consumption and environmental pressure are enormous, the total energy consumption has accounted for 20.3 percent of the world total. The industrial structure was unreasonable, and the income gap between urban and rural residents continued to widen, reaching 3.13: 1 by 2011. The problem of uncoordinated and unbalanced economic development is becoming increasingly prominent. Therefore, how to deal with the coordinated development of China's economy is worthy of further study. China's economic development cannot be separated from the global economic environment, and with the increasing openness of the external economic environment, Especially after China joined WTO in 2001, it has further integrated into the international economic system. With the strengthening of international flows of commodities, capital and labor, the interdependence between China's economy and the world economy is increasing. Meanwhile, since the people's Bank of China announced the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism on July 21, 2005, as of December 2, 2012, the central exchange rate of RMB against the dollar was 6.22, with a cumulative appreciation of more than 32 yuan. therefore China's economy is developing and changing along with the process of trade liberalization and the change of exchange rate level. As an important policy lever to regulate a country's economic relations with the outside world, the exchange rate level and trade freedom are as follows How do macroeconomic variables such as total output levels between countries and regions change and change? This paper tries to give some answers. First, this paper reviews the history and current situation of the impact of exchange rate changes and trade liberalization on economic development; secondly, theoretically analyzes the impact of the two on the macroeconomic; finally, The structure of this paper is as follows: the first chapter introduces the background and significance of the research, research objectives, research ideas and research methods. The second chapter defines the related concepts, the category of this study and literature review. The third chapter reviews the characteristics of RMB exchange rate and the different stages of China's economy in the process of trade liberalization, and describes the objectives and problems of China's economic development in different periods. The fourth and fifth chapters enter the analysis of the core content of this paper. In chapter 4, a general equilibrium analysis model is established, which includes two variables: exchange rate level and trade degree of freedom. Secondly, four propositions are put forward by solving the model and numerical analysis, and finally, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward. The fifth chapter is divided into five sections. In the first section, the analytical framework model of two countries and three regions including the degree of freedom of trade is established. In the second section, we discuss the problems that each region will face under the combination of trade freedom. The third section of this chapter introduces the exchange rate variable on the basis of the first section, and establishes a two-country three-region model which includes the level of exchange rate and the degree of freedom of trade. The fourth section discusses the law of inter-country and interregional economic development under different trade costs. The fifth section gives the corresponding policy enlightenment. Finally, it is the summary of this paper, which pays more attention to empirical analysis and preference theory. Many enlightening conclusions are obtained through various hypotheses about the relevant parameters in the model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F124;F832.6;F752

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