本文選題：貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)非對(duì)稱 + 形成機(jī)理�。� 參考：《西南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著金融全球化的不斷深化,對(duì)于如何把握好貨幣政策的執(zhí)行力度儼然成為了各國(guó)中央銀行遇到的棘手問(wèn)題。為什么相同力度下的政策卻未能達(dá)到過(guò)去良好的調(diào)控效果?為什么等量的降息或加息對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊的幅度卻不盡相同?為什么有的地方對(duì)貨幣政策反應(yīng)靈敏,而另一些地方反應(yīng)遲緩?經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們對(duì)于這些現(xiàn)實(shí)問(wèn)題苦苦思索,最終得出結(jié)論,是由于貨幣政策存在非對(duì)稱效應(yīng)。現(xiàn)實(shí)生活中,由于不同地區(qū)、行業(yè)在各自的經(jīng)濟(jì)階段中對(duì)同一貨幣政策的敏感程度有所差異,所以中央銀行難以準(zhǔn)確估量貨幣政策對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響程度,從而難以把握貨幣政策的調(diào)控力度。 貨幣政策的有效性是伴隨著客觀條件而呈現(xiàn)出的規(guī)律性變化,通常將這種現(xiàn)象稱之為貨幣政策的非對(duì)稱效應(yīng)。貨幣政策的非對(duì)稱效應(yīng)體現(xiàn)在四個(gè)方面：一是時(shí)間層面,貨幣政策在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期的效果強(qiáng)于貨幣政策在經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮期的效果；二是區(qū)域?qū)用?貨幣政策在金融欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的效果強(qiáng)于貨幣政策在金融發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的效果；三是產(chǎn)業(yè)層面,貨幣政策對(duì)勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響效果強(qiáng)于貨幣政策對(duì)資本密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響；四是企業(yè)層面,貨幣政策對(duì)中小型企業(yè)的作用強(qiáng)于貨幣政策對(duì)大型企業(yè)的作用。 本文根據(jù)先前學(xué)者的研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)貨幣政策非對(duì)稱性在產(chǎn)業(yè)層面的研究十分淺薄,因此本文意圖著力研究貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)非對(duì)稱性。本文從不同角度分析貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)非對(duì)稱的形成機(jī)理。首先,主觀預(yù)期的非對(duì)稱調(diào)整。古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)假定經(jīng)濟(jì)人是完全理性的。事實(shí)上,完全理性經(jīng)濟(jì)人的假設(shè)并不符合現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況。現(xiàn)實(shí)社會(huì)中,經(jīng)紀(jì)人的心里會(huì)受到多種因素的預(yù)期影響,每個(gè)行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)主體所掌握的信息不可能是完全對(duì)稱的,因而經(jīng)濟(jì)人很難最大化地按照理性想法來(lái)進(jìn)行預(yù)期決策。所以,有限理性的假設(shè)是貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)非對(duì)稱性假設(shè)的存在前提。行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)人的心理預(yù)期會(huì)受到通貨膨脹趨勢(shì)、邊際報(bào)酬率和市場(chǎng)情緒等多種因素的影響,并且公眾預(yù)期和市場(chǎng)情緒調(diào)整是不對(duì)稱的,種種因素都使得貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制具有了不確定性,并最終產(chǎn)生貨幣政策的產(chǎn)業(yè)非對(duì)稱效應(yīng)；第二,名義粘性與實(shí)際粘性。工資和價(jià)格之所以不會(huì)隨著沖擊靈活調(diào)整,是因?yàn)榇嬖诮诲e(cuò)工資合同、菜單成本、工會(huì)力量和政府干預(yù)等。因此名義粘性會(huì)隨著沖擊的方向和幅度不同而存在非對(duì)稱性。凱恩斯主義假設(shè),行業(yè)的工資和價(jià)格向下調(diào)整存在剛性、向上調(diào)整十分靈活,以及要素的邊際報(bào)酬遞減,使得總供給曲線為凸。正因?yàn)榭偣┙o曲線是凸型,我們很容易判斷出貨幣政策對(duì)真實(shí)產(chǎn)出具有非對(duì)稱的影響；第三,貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)渠道。Lamont將產(chǎn)業(yè)的“債務(wù)積壓”定為貨幣政策非對(duì)稱性的潛在原因,即新項(xiàng)目的投資收益都流向了債權(quán)人,造成新項(xiàng)目的流動(dòng)性支持不足。此外,金融加速效應(yīng)在經(jīng)濟(jì)周期不同階段亦會(huì)產(chǎn)生不同。資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表狀況差的小規(guī)模行業(yè)投資受影響最大,而對(duì)中等規(guī)模及以上規(guī)模的行業(yè),在非經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期金融加速器的效果都不明顯。再者,在市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制下,經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整不再單純體現(xiàn)為政府的主導(dǎo)行為,而是由微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)主體根據(jù)價(jià)格信號(hào)的引導(dǎo)來(lái)選擇配置的渠道、數(shù)量和結(jié)構(gòu)。作為資本價(jià)格信號(hào)的利率顯然成為配置資源的基礎(chǔ)。因此選擇利率政策作為分析貨幣政策的行業(yè)的非對(duì)稱機(jī)理問(wèn)題。利率變化對(duì)行業(yè)的影響程度受制于很多因素,如：行業(yè)發(fā)展階段、規(guī)模報(bào)酬因子、技術(shù)水平、市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)品的需求因素、要素密集度等。為了說(shuō)明原理起見(jiàn),本文引用一個(gè)對(duì)資本具有有同等偏好的兩部門模型的例子,該例子說(shuō)明：存在資本約束和兩部門對(duì)資本有同等偏好的情況下,要素密集程度不同會(huì)產(chǎn)生不同的貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)效應(yīng)；最后,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的非對(duì)稱。EMU曾經(jīng)是世界上唯一的跨國(guó)單一貨幣區(qū),此外歐洲中央銀行(ECB)在區(qū)域內(nèi)計(jì)劃了統(tǒng)一的貨幣政策,這些計(jì)劃的實(shí)施為研究貨幣政策效應(yīng)非對(duì)稱性與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間的關(guān)系提供了大量的素材。 本論文的研究思路嚴(yán)格遵循著理論與實(shí)踐相結(jié)合的發(fā)展規(guī)律。首先,導(dǎo)論中敘述了本論文的選題依據(jù)與意義、研究思路與目標(biāo)、技術(shù)路線以及研究?jī)?nèi)容與方法。同時(shí)概括了國(guó)內(nèi)外考察貨幣政策非對(duì)稱的研究現(xiàn)狀,重點(diǎn)闡述貨幣政策在產(chǎn)業(yè)層而非對(duì)稱效應(yīng)的文獻(xiàn)。第二章闡述貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)非對(duì)稱性的相關(guān)理論。第三章論述該現(xiàn)象的形成機(jī)理。第四章以建筑業(yè)為例,利用具體實(shí)證分析證實(shí)的確存在貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)的差異性。第五章提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。最后一章進(jìn)行本論文的結(jié)論與不足。 全文通過(guò)建立建筑業(yè)子行業(yè)的VAR系統(tǒng),發(fā)現(xiàn)不同行業(yè)的產(chǎn)出對(duì)廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量(M2)滯后一、二期時(shí)反應(yīng)的方向與大小不同,這說(shuō)明建筑業(yè)子行業(yè)的確存在貨幣政策產(chǎn)業(yè)非對(duì)稱性。同時(shí)通過(guò)脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù),可以具體得到廣義貨供應(yīng)量(M2)沖擊各個(gè)子行業(yè)的不同趨勢(shì)和程度方向,并且每個(gè)子行業(yè)的受到M2的影響持續(xù)周期也有差異,所以本文的實(shí)證從各個(gè)方面均可證明貨幣政策效應(yīng)在建筑業(yè)的子行業(yè)中具有差異性,即非對(duì)稱性。本文也存在不足,第一，全文由于數(shù)據(jù)的局限性,沒(méi)有對(duì)建筑業(yè)行業(yè)進(jìn)行整體研究。第二,有待進(jìn)一步研究股票和匯率的引入是放大了還是縮小了貨幣政策的產(chǎn)業(yè)非對(duì)稱效應(yīng)。 在清楚掌握貨幣政策非對(duì)稱性效應(yīng)的形成機(jī)理后,根據(jù)全文實(shí)證得到的相應(yīng)結(jié)論,中央銀行應(yīng)當(dāng)根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段的不同以配合相應(yīng)的貨幣政策,并根據(jù)產(chǎn)生的非對(duì)稱性規(guī)律實(shí)施有差別的貨幣政策,充分發(fā)揮貨幣政策結(jié)構(gòu)性功能,實(shí)施部分差別化操作�？梢詮囊韵氯矫婵紤]：一,依照經(jīng)濟(jì)周期靈活調(diào)節(jié)貨幣政策力度；二,依照經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段調(diào)整貨幣政策力度；三,依照產(chǎn)業(yè)非對(duì)稱特點(diǎn)實(shí)施結(jié)構(gòu)化的貨幣政策。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of financial globalization, how to grasp the implementation of the monetary policy has become a difficult problem for the central banks of all countries. Why does the policy under the same dynamics fail to achieve good control effect in the past? Why are the same amount of interest rate reduction or interest rate increasing to the extent of the economic impact? Why Some places are sensitive to monetary policy, and other places are slow to react? Economists are painfully thinking about these real problems and finally come to the conclusion that there is an asymmetric effect in monetary policy. In real life, the industry is less sensitive to the same monetary policy in their respective economic stages because of different regions. Therefore, it is difficult for the central bank to accurately estimate the degree of monetary policy's impact on the macro economy, so it is difficult to grasp the intensity of monetary policy regulation.
The effectiveness of monetary policy is a regular change accompanied by objective conditions, which is often referred to as the asymmetric effect of monetary policy. The asymmetric effect of monetary policy is reflected in four aspects: one is the time level, and the effect of monetary policy in the economic recession is stronger than the effect of monetary policy in the period of economic prosperity. Two is the regional level, the effect of monetary policy in the underdeveloped areas is stronger than the effect of monetary policy in the developed areas; three is the industrial level, and the effect of monetary policy on labor intensive industries is stronger than the effect of monetary policy on capital intensive industries; four is the enterprise level, and the monetary policy is made to small and medium enterprises. The role of a large enterprise stronger than monetary policy.
According to the previous scholars' research, we find that the asymmetry of monetary policy is very shallow at the industrial level. Therefore, this paper aims to study the asymmetry of the monetary policy industry. This paper analyzes the asymmetric formation mechanism of the monetary policy industry from different angles. First, the asymmetric adjustment of the subjective pre term. The classical economics assumes the economy. A man is completely rational. In fact, the hypothesis of a fully rational economic person does not conform to the reality. In a real society, the heart of a broker will be influenced by many factors, and the information mastered by the economic subject of each industry can not be completely symmetrical, so it is difficult for the economic man to make the expected decision according to the rational idea. Therefore, the hypothesis of limited rationality is the precondition of the asymmetric hypothesis of the monetary policy industry. The psychological expectation of the industry economy person will be influenced by a variety of factors such as inflation trend, marginal return rate and market sentiment, and the public expectation and market sentiment adjustment are unsymmetrical, and all kinds of factors make the monetary policy transmitter It has an industrial asymmetric effect that has uncertainty and ultimately produces monetary policy; second, nominal stickiness and real stickiness. Wages and prices are not adjusted flexibly with the impact, because there are interlaced wage contracts, menu costs, Union forces and government intervention. Therefore, the nominal stickiness will follow the direction and extent of the impact. According to the Keynes hypothesis, the adjustment of wages and prices in the industry is rigid, the adjustment is very flexible, and the marginal return of the factors decreases, which makes the total supply curve convex. Because the total supply curve is convex, we can easily determine the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on real output. Third, the monetary policy transmission channel.Lamont determines the "backlog of debt" in the industry as a potential reason for the asymmetry of monetary policy. That is, the investment income of the new project flows to the creditor, resulting in the lack of liquidity support for the new project. In addition, the financial acceleration effect is also different in the different stages of the economic cycle. The balance sheet situation is poor. The small scale industry investment is most affected, and the effect of the financial accelerator in the non economic recession and the recession period is not obvious to the medium scale and above scale industry. Furthermore, under the market economic system, the adjustment of the economic structure is no longer simply reflected as the leading behavior of the government, but is based on the price signal based on the microeconomic subject. The interest rate policy as the basis of the allocation of resources is obviously the basis of the capital price signal. Therefore, the interest rate policy is chosen as the asymmetric mechanism of the analysis of the monetary policy industry. The impact of the interest rate change on the industry is subject to a lot of factors, such as the development stage of the industry, and the cause of scale reward. In order to illustrate the principle, this article quotes an example of a two sector model with equal preference for capital. This example shows that in the case of capital constraints and the two sector is equally good in capital, the difference in factor density will produce different factors. The effect of monetary policy industry; finally, the asymmetric.EMU of the industrial structure was once the only multinational single currency area in the world, and the European Central Bank (ECB) planned a unified monetary policy in the region. The implementation of these plans provided a large amount of material for the study of the relationship between the asymmetric effect of monetary policy and the industrial structure.
The research ideas of this paper strictly follow the law of combination of theory and practice. First of all, the introduction describes the basis and significance of the topic, the research ideas and objectives, the technical route and the content and method of research. At the same time, it summarizes the current research status of the study of monetary policy at home and abroad, and focuses on the production of monetary policy in production. The second chapter expounds the relative theory of the asymmetric effect of the monetary policy industry. The third chapter discusses the formation mechanism of the phenomenon. The fourth chapter takes the construction industry as an example, and uses concrete empirical analysis to confirm the difference in the monetary policy industry. The fifth chapter puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions. The last chapter carries out this theory. The conclusion and deficiency of the article.
Through the establishment of the VAR system of the construction industry, it is found that the output of different industries is lagging behind the broad money supply (M2), and the direction and size of the reaction are different in the two period. This shows that the construction industry does have the asymmetry of the monetary policy industry. At the same time, the generalized cargo supply (M2) can be obtained by the impulse response function. There are different trends and degrees in each sub industry, and the continuous cycle of the impact of M2 on each sub industry is also different. So the empirical analysis of this paper can prove that the monetary policy effect is different in the sub industry of the construction industry, that is, the asymmetry. This paper also has shortcomings. First, the full text is limited to the data. There is no overall research on the construction industry. Second, it needs to further study whether the introduction of stock and exchange rate has enlarged or narrowed the asymmetric effect of the monetary policy.
After a clear grasp of the formation mechanism of the asymmetric effect of monetary policy, according to the corresponding conclusion of the full text, the central bank should cooperate with the corresponding monetary policy according to the different stages of economic development, and carry out the different monetary policy according to the unsymmetrical law of the production, give full play to the structural function of the monetary policy and implement it. Some differential operations can be considered from the following three aspects: first, flexible regulation of monetary policy in accordance with the economic cycle; two, to adjust monetary policy in accordance with the economic development stage; and three, to implement structured monetary policy in accordance with the asymmetric characteristics of industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F821.0;F407.92;F224

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