本文選題：牛市 + 熊市　； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：在美國(guó),上市公司的兼并收購(gòu)活動(dòng)已經(jīng)有悠久的歷史,外國(guó)學(xué)者也提供了許多有意義的研究和結(jié)論。在我國(guó),兼并收購(gòu)的歷史還不長(zhǎng),不過(guò)已經(jīng)有許多學(xué)者對(duì)兼并收購(gòu)的績(jī)效進(jìn)行了深入的研究,也得到了許多有意義的結(jié)論。 與之前的國(guó)內(nèi)文獻(xiàn)不同,本文試圖從另外一個(gè)視角來(lái)研究兼并收購(gòu)的績(jī)效問(wèn)題,研究牛市下兼并收購(gòu)和熊市下兼并收購(gòu)的績(jī)效的差異。作者發(fā)現(xiàn)牛市下的兼并收購(gòu)短期績(jī)效顯著優(yōu)于熊市下的兼并收購(gòu),但是,長(zhǎng)期績(jī)效顯著劣于熊市下進(jìn)行的并購(gòu)。這個(gè)結(jié)果在作者控制了其他可能影響兼并收購(gòu)績(jī)效的變量之后,依然顯著,而且顯著性有所提高。 作者嘗試依據(jù)牛熊市下,投資者對(duì)于并購(gòu)規(guī)模的敏感程度,從投資者情緒的角度解釋短期并購(gòu)績(jī)效差異,發(fā)現(xiàn)牛熊市下短期并購(gòu)績(jī)效的差異主要是由投資者的情緒和過(guò)度反應(yīng)導(dǎo)致的。同時(shí),作者嘗試用時(shí)機(jī)選擇理論、羊群效應(yīng)理論和托賓Q理論來(lái)解釋牛熊市長(zhǎng)期并購(gòu)績(jī)效的差異,發(fā)現(xiàn)托賓Q理論能夠更好地解釋這一現(xiàn)象。 與此同時(shí),作者在對(duì)其他變量的研究中發(fā)現(xiàn),與西方市場(chǎng)不同,中國(guó)投資者對(duì)于支付方式等交易特征變量并沒(méi)有表現(xiàn)出太多的關(guān)注,這主要與我國(guó)并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)的監(jiān)管以及股票發(fā)行制度有關(guān)。公司自由現(xiàn)金流比率和掏空與支持動(dòng)機(jī)對(duì)短期績(jī)效有一定的解釋力度,財(cái)務(wù)杠桿比率和掏空與支持動(dòng)機(jī)對(duì)長(zhǎng)期績(jī)效差異有解釋意義。這個(gè)結(jié)果與西方文獻(xiàn)的研究基本一致。公司估值指標(biāo),如市凈率、市值、前一年增長(zhǎng)率等,對(duì)于并購(gòu)的長(zhǎng)短期績(jī)效解釋力度都有限。
[Abstract]:In the United States, the merger and acquisition of listed companies has a long history, foreign scholars have also provided a lot of meaningful research and conclusions. In China, the history of mergers and acquisitions is not long, but many scholars have done in-depth research on the performance of mergers and acquisitions, and got many meaningful conclusions. Different from previous domestic literature, this paper attempts to study the performance of mergers and acquisitions from another perspective, and to study the differences between the performance of mergers and acquisitions in bull markets and those in bear markets. The author finds that the short-term performance of merger and acquisition in bull market is significantly better than that in bear market, but the long-term performance is significantly worse than that in bear market. After controlling for other variables that may affect the performance of mergers and acquisitions, the results are still significant and significantly improved. According to the sensitivity of investors to M & A scale in bull bear market, the author tries to explain the difference of short-term M & A performance from the angle of investor sentiment. It is found that the difference of short-term M & A performance in bull bear market is mainly caused by investor sentiment and overreaction. At the same time, the author tries to explain the difference of long-term M & A performance of bull bear market with timing theory, herding theory and Tobin Q theory, and finds that Tobin Q theory can better explain this phenomenon. At the same time, in the study of other variables, the author found that, unlike in the western markets, Chinese investors did not pay much attention to the transaction characteristic variables, such as payment methods. This is mainly related to the regulation of the M & A market and the stock issue system in China. The ratio of free cash flow and tunneling and supporting motivation can explain the short-term performance to some extent, while the financial leverage ratio and tunneling and supporting motivation can explain the difference of long-term performance. This result is basically consistent with the western literature. Corporate valuation indicators, such as price-to-book ratio, market value, the previous year's growth rate and so on, have limited long-term and short-term performance explanations for mergers and acquisitions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51

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