本文選題：外匯儲備 + 通貨膨脹��； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：截至2012年6月底，我國外匯儲備為32529.5334億美元，規(guī)模穩(wěn)居世界第一。改革開放以來，巨額的外匯儲備將國際間的流通手段、購買手段和支付手段這一角色發(fā)揮得淋漓盡致。作為國際公關(guān) 燙金名片‖的外匯儲備，不僅體現(xiàn)了我國日益強大的綜合國力，更是對我國經(jīng)濟增長良好預(yù)期的最佳注解。與此同時國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟也發(fā)生著翻天覆地的變化，，顯著的表現(xiàn)為貨幣供給大幅增加、物價水平不斷攀升。CPI從2009年底以來開始出現(xiàn)持續(xù)攀升勢頭。2011年7月CPI同比增長6.5%，刷新年內(nèi)新高并站上3年內(nèi)最高點。通貨膨脹無論從何視角觀察都是中國未來面臨的長期壓力。 本文選取外匯儲備規(guī)模這個解釋變量作為研究外部經(jīng)濟如何影響我國國內(nèi)通貨膨脹水平的指標。理論模型及傳導(dǎo)機制分析均表明巨額外匯儲備增強了貨幣途徑的通貨膨脹效應(yīng)。 根據(jù)實證分析結(jié)果得出我國巨額外匯儲備對國內(nèi)通貨膨脹有正效應(yīng)但影響有限。如果外匯儲備增加1個百分點，則誘導(dǎo)物價指數(shù)增加0.10090個百分點。外匯儲備存量受外部條件的某一沖擊之后，會給通貨膨脹率帶來持續(xù)的同向促進作用。在通貨膨脹率的變動中，大約3.22-8%的波動可以由外匯儲備的變動來解釋。長期看來，巨額外匯儲備對通貨膨脹存在顯著的影響。為了緩解巨額外匯儲備對通貨膨脹的影響本文提出以下有針對性的建議：多管齊下遏止外匯儲備過快增長；多渠道擴寬外匯儲備使用途徑；構(gòu)造良好的政策環(huán)境降低巨額外匯儲備的負效應(yīng)及積極推進人民幣國際化有效降低外匯儲備需求。
[Abstract]:By the end of June, 2012, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.25295334 trillion, ranking first in the world. Since the reform and opening up, the huge foreign exchange reserves will play the role of international circulation means, purchase means and payment means incisively and vividly. As an international public relations card, the foreign exchange reserve not only reflects our country's increasingly strong comprehensive national strength, but also the best annotation of our country's economic growth. At the same time, the domestic economy has also undergone earth-shaking changes, marked by a substantial increase in the money supply. Prices have continued to climb since the end of 2009. CPI rose 6.5 percent year on year in July 2011, a new high for the year and a three-year high. Inflation, no matter from any perspective, is a long-term pressure on China in the future. This paper selects the scale of foreign exchange reserves as an explanatory variable to study how the external economy affects China's domestic inflation level. Theoretical model and conduction mechanism analysis show that huge foreign exchange reserves enhance the inflation effect of monetary channel. According to the results of empirical analysis, it is concluded that China's huge foreign exchange reserves have a positive effect on domestic inflation, but the impact is limited. If foreign exchange reserves increase by 1 percentage point, the price index will increase by 0.10090 percentage points. After the stock of foreign exchange reserves is impacted by some external conditions, it will bring continuous codirectional effect to the inflation rate. Some 3.22-8 percent of inflation changes can be explained by changes in foreign exchange reserves. In the long run, large foreign exchange reserves have a significant impact on inflation. In order to mitigate the impact of huge foreign exchange reserves on inflation, this paper puts forward the following targeted suggestions: multi-pronged approach to curb the excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves, multi-channel expansion of the use of foreign exchange reserves; A well-structured policy environment reduces the negative effects of huge foreign exchange reserves and actively promotes the internationalization of RMB to effectively reduce the demand for foreign exchange reserves.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F822.5

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