本文選題：雙順差 + 人民幣匯率　； 參考：《東北財經(jīng)大學》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：中國國際收支的雙順差(以下簡稱雙順差)格局由來已久。20世紀90年代以來,除1992年、1998年的資本和金融項目①(非特別指明,以下簡稱資本項目或資本賬戶)和1993年的經(jīng)常項目為逆差外,中國的經(jīng)常項目順差(主要表現(xiàn)為貨物貿(mào)易順差)和資本項目順差(主要表現(xiàn)為直接投資順差)已經(jīng)持續(xù)將近20年。 雙順差給中國帶來巨大經(jīng)濟利益的同時也給宏觀經(jīng)濟制造了不少麻煩。雙順差造成中國外匯儲備巨額累積和人民幣升值壓力,外匯占款劇增,而央行的對沖干預行為又形成流動性過剩預期,造成通貨膨脹和資產(chǎn)價格泡沫此起彼伏,最終導致宏觀調控效果不佳甚至喪失獨立性。同時,由于累積的龐大外匯儲備集中投資于美元及以美元計價的資產(chǎn),在美元兌人民幣貶值戰(zhàn)略下,外匯儲備面臨貶值風險。隨著全球經(jīng)濟陷入衰退和發(fā)達國家的貿(mào)易赤字不斷擴大,國際社會抨擊中國刻意壓低人民幣匯率以獲取不公平的貿(mào)易優(yōu)勢,要求人民幣持續(xù)升值以緩解與中國之間的貿(mào)易失衡問題。 本文的主要內容如下： (一)中國國際收支雙順差的發(fā)展歷程及特征 1.從2005年開始,經(jīng)常項目順差逐漸成為中國雙順差的主要來源。其中貨物貿(mào)易順差占經(jīng)常項目順差的80%以上,而約一半的出口貿(mào)易是由加工貿(mào)易尤其是外商投資企業(yè)的加工貿(mào)易貢獻的。服務貿(mào)易逆差已持續(xù)多年,且有擴大趨勢。除2007－2009年為順差外,收益項目逆差已持續(xù)十幾年,產(chǎn)生逆差的原因主要在于投資收益逆差過大。 2.中國在外直接投資增幅長期低于外國在華直接投資增幅,使得直接投資順差逐漸成為資本項目順差的主要來源。中國在外直接投資規(guī)模偏小,僅占中國國際投資總資產(chǎn)的6%左右；中國目前有超過4萬億美元的國際投資資產(chǎn),近70%屬于外匯資產(chǎn),絕大部分被動投資于收益率很低的美國等發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體的國債。 (二)分析中國雙順差的理論模型 基于微觀消費者的跨期消費最優(yōu)選擇模型,研究開放經(jīng)濟條件下兩國經(jīng)濟的跨期消費和跨期貿(mào)易模式,同時從跨期資本流動角度對資本項目順差與經(jīng)常項目順差之間的邏輯關系進行了梳理,建立了分析中國雙順差的理論框架,對雙順差的性質及其成因有了更深的認識。 (三)產(chǎn)生雙順差的國際背景和國內根源 1.美國等發(fā)達國家的“去工業(yè)化”過程適逢中國的工業(yè)化、城市化處于飛速發(fā)展階段。一方面發(fā)達國家由于制造業(yè)轉移到國外導致其商品貿(mào)易逆差成為必然,同時其快速壯大的服務業(yè)又具有不可完全貿(mào)易的特性,發(fā)達國家很容易出現(xiàn)經(jīng)常項目赤字,另一方面中國憑借改革開放政策,及時承接了發(fā)達國家轉移出來的工業(yè)產(chǎn)能。 2.全球按生產(chǎn)鏈分工的模式使得中國成為“世界加工廠”。中國制造具有生產(chǎn)成本低、制造技術相對成熟、經(jīng)濟開放程度較高等優(yōu)勢,許多跨國企業(yè)將制造工廠從發(fā)達國家甚至從昔日的東亞“四小龍”轉移到中國大陸,相當于中國承接了大部分原本屬于它們的貿(mào)易順差。 3.中國實行出口導向型外資優(yōu)惠政策。在出口導向的政績觀指引下,中國各級政府采取資源價格人為低估、出口補貼和關稅政策等手段,鼓勵出口、抑制進口擴大了貿(mào)易順差。同時對外資實行超國民待遇,吸引外資不斷流入擴大了直接投資順差。 4.國內消費有效需求相對不足。中國從計劃經(jīng)濟向市場經(jīng)濟轉型當中不公平的資源配置方式導致經(jīng)濟發(fā)展不均衡和收入分配不平等,雖然國民總儲蓄率很高,但居民儲蓄在國民總儲蓄中的占比較小,從而使得社會平均消費傾向和邊際消費傾向下降,同時政府和國企主導的以投資刺激經(jīng)濟增長的方式推動了無效供給的不斷增加,最終表現(xiàn)為經(jīng)濟整體性的消費需求相對不足。 5.國內過剩儲蓄轉化成投資需要借助國際收支渠道,擴大了資本項目順差規(guī)模。由于中國金融市場不發(fā)達,在外資優(yōu)惠政策的刺激下,中國過剩國民儲蓄并非通過國內金融市場直接轉化成國內投資,而是需要轉道國際金融市場,以FDI的形式回流后彌補中國國內的實際投資一儲蓄缺口。于是便存在國內儲蓄為外國在華投資“曲線”融資的情況：一方面中國通過貿(mào)易順差積累外匯儲備成為資本輸出國,主要投資于國外債券市場和貨幣市場,另一方面經(jīng)由中國外匯儲備融資的FDI又回流中國,主要投資于企業(yè)股權。 (四)中國雙順差的影響、可持續(xù)性與再平衡機制 1.雙順差對中國經(jīng)濟利益的影響 雙順差造成外匯儲備巨額累積,匯率管制下的對沖干預機制形成人民幣升值預期,最終導致人民幣升值的螺旋式“自我實現(xiàn)”。外匯占款成為中國流動性過剩的主要來源,而提高存款準備金率和發(fā)行央行票據(jù)只能暫時“封存”過剩流動性,實際上并沒有消除流動性過剩帶來的通貨膨脹和資產(chǎn)價格泡沫預期。在雙順差格局暫難逆轉的情況下,抑制流動性過剩的成本越來越大,中國宏觀調控的獨立性和有效性受到嚴重威脅。同時,在美元兌人民幣貶值戰(zhàn)略下,中國外匯儲備的實際購買力迅速下降,經(jīng)過數(shù)年貿(mào)易順差辛苦積累的國民財富正被美元貶值戰(zhàn)略不斷“蠶食” 2.雙順差的可持續(xù)性 短期來看,中國的貿(mào)易順差將慣性存在,但規(guī)模將逐步縮小。但是現(xiàn)階段,中國出口優(yōu)勢依然存在,政府和企業(yè)都不會輕易放棄這種優(yōu)勢；同時中國出口導向型經(jīng)濟轉型需要時間,消費增長仍需時日,這些都決定了出口依賴不會很快消失。此外,由于中國經(jīng)濟增長前景相對較好,中國市場的投資回報率在全球具有較強競爭力,金融項目順差規(guī)模也不會迅速收窄。 但從長期來看,全球經(jīng)濟失衡難以持續(xù),西方債務國家需要緊縮財政開支,國外需求萎縮似乎正在形成,未來對于中國出口的打擊將是巨大的,貿(mào)易順差可能會快速回落,迫使中國出口導向型經(jīng)濟結構盡快做出調整。 3.雙順差的再平衡機制 多年的雙順差帶來的經(jīng)濟利益使得中國有能力調整自身經(jīng)濟和金融戰(zhàn)略。繼續(xù)深化人民幣匯率形成機制改革,擴大人民幣匯率彈性；抓住國際貨幣體系從美元本位向多元化轉化的機遇,推進人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略,努力擺脫美元依賴；擴大國內消費需求,調整出口創(chuàng)匯型經(jīng)濟政策,加大對外投資。 (五)人民幣匯率變動對貿(mào)易收支影響的實證檢驗 實證分析方法采用向量自回歸模型(VAR),進行了協(xié)整檢驗、誤差修正、脈沖響應和方差分解。本文認為,人民幣匯率對貿(mào)易收支的影響不顯著,人民幣升值短期能抑制貿(mào)易順差的擴大,但從長期來說,人民幣匯率對貿(mào)易條件的影響是不確定的,其效果取決于進出口商品的供求彈性。國外需求對我國貿(mào)易順差的影響遠大于人民幣匯率,人民幣匯率不是貿(mào)易順差擴大的主要原因。同時發(fā)現(xiàn),國內需求的增加對貿(mào)易順差水平影響不顯著。人民幣升值并不能解決中國與其他國家之間的貿(mào)易失衡問題。 (六)人民幣匯率決定機制 現(xiàn)階段匯率保持穩(wěn)定預期有利于強化世界各國對中國經(jīng)濟的增長預期和對人民幣的信心,有利于中國出口導向型經(jīng)濟的轉型和人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略的推進。但是人民幣匯率穩(wěn)定不能簡單地“釘死”,應在提高國際資本流動監(jiān)測能力的基礎上擴大人民幣交易區(qū)間的浮動范圍,發(fā)揮市場供求關系對人民幣匯率的影響。在推進人民幣匯率制度改革的過程中,必須保持有效的對資本跨境流動的管制,同時應當盡快推進利率市場化進程。 (七)人民幣匯率制度選擇 中國現(xiàn)階段實行有管理浮動匯率制度符合當前宏觀經(jīng)濟利益,有利于緩解人民幣匯率的大幅波動對中國經(jīng)濟轉型的不利影響。目前中國的利率和匯率市場化、人民幣國際化、資本賬戶開放等改革措施正處于攻堅階段,需要人民幣匯率的穩(wěn)定預期和匯率制度的靈活管理營造合適的改革環(huán)境。 (八)不足之處 1.由于本人學識有限,本文對理論模型的理解還不夠透徹,計量經(jīng)濟模型略顯簡單,同時實證分析可能會因數(shù)據(jù)采集、處理的問題使結論偏離正確方向。 2.本文沒有建立分析人民幣匯率對貿(mào)易收支影響的創(chuàng)新性數(shù)量模型,僅利用現(xiàn)有成熟的計量模型進行了實證檢驗,沒有建立更加精確的模型來求證匯率對我國貿(mào)易收支的影響。 3.由于匯率政策的選擇受國家政策和經(jīng)濟改革路徑的影響較大,甚至牽涉到國際政治因素,故本文沒有建立分析人民幣匯率決定機制的理論框架,僅結合人民幣匯率對貿(mào)易收支影響的實證檢驗結果,對人民幣匯率的決定機制進行了理論探討。有可能使分析結果偏重于經(jīng)驗分析,對一些問題的看法可能過于主觀,尚不夠成熟和細致。
[Abstract]:China's balance of payments double surplus (hereinafter referred to as the double surplus) has a long history since the 90s century.20 century, except for 1992, the capital and financial projects of 1998 (not specifically specified, hereinafter referred to as capital account or capital account) and the 1993 current account deficit, China's current account surplus (mainly manifested in goods trade surplus) And capital account surplus (mainly manifested as direct investment surplus) has been going on for nearly 20 years.
The double surplus brought great economic benefits to China, but also made a lot of trouble to the macro-economy. The double surplus caused a huge accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and the pressure of RMB appreciation, the increase of foreign exchange accounts, and the central bank's hedging intervention has formed a liquidity surplus expectation, resulting in inflation and asset price bubbles. At the same time, as the accumulated huge foreign exchange reserves are concentrated in the US dollar and dollar denominated assets, the foreign exchange reserves face the risk of devaluation under the devaluation strategy of the US dollar against the RMB. China deliberately suppressed the RMB exchange rate to gain unfair trade advantages and demanded a sustained appreciation of the renminbi to ease trade imbalance with China.
The main contents of this paper are as follows:
(1) the development history and characteristics of the double surplus of China's balance of payments
1. since 2005, the current account surplus has gradually become the main source of China's double surplus. The surplus trade surplus accounts for more than 80% of the current account surplus, and about half of the export trade is contributed by processing trade, especially the processing trade of foreign invested enterprises. The trade deficit of service has been continued for many years and has expanded. Except for 2007-2 Over the past 009 years, the deficit has been sustained for more than ten years. The main reason for the deficit is that the deficit of investment income is too large.
2. the growth of FDI in China has long been lower than that of foreign direct investment in China, making direct investment surplus the main source of capital account surplus. China has a small scale of FDI, accounting for only about 6% of the total assets of China's international investment; China has more than US $4 trillion in international investment assets, and nearly 70% belong to China. Most of the foreign exchange assets are invested in the Treasury bonds of developed economies such as the United States.
(two) an analysis of the theoretical model of China's double surplus
Based on the optimal choice model of the cross term consumption of the micro consumer, this paper studies the intertemporal consumption and intertemporal trade model of the two economies under the open economy, and combs the logical relationship between the capital account surplus and the current account surplus from the perspective of the intertemporal capital flow, and establishes a theoretical framework for the analysis of China's double surplus. There is a deeper understanding of the nature and cause of the difference.
(three) the international background and domestic origin of the double surplus
1. the process of "de industrialization" in the United States and other developed countries coincides with the industrialization of China, and the urbanization is in the stage of rapid development. On the one hand, it is inevitable that the developed countries have been transferred to foreign countries because of the transfer of the manufacturing industry to foreign countries. At the same time, the rapid growth of the service industry has the characteristics of no complete trade, and the developed countries are easy to appear. On account of the current account deficit, on the other hand, China has undertaken the industrial capacity transferred by developed countries in a timely manner with the policy of reform and opening up.
2. the global division of labor in the production chain makes China a "world processing plant". China has the advantages of low production cost, relatively mature manufacturing technology and higher economic openness. Many multinational enterprises transfer manufacturing factories from developed countries, even from former East Asia "four small dragons" to mainland China, which is equivalent to China's undertaking. Most of the trade surplus that originally belonged to them.
3. China implements the preferential policy of export oriented foreign investment. Under the guidance of the export oriented political performance, Chinese governments at all levels adopt the means of underestimating the price of resources, export subsidies and tariff policies, encouraging export and restraining imports to expand the trade surplus. Capital surplus.
4. the effective demand for domestic consumption is relatively inadequate. The unfair allocation of resources in the transition from planned economy to market economy leads to unequal economic development and inequality of income distribution. Although the total national savings rate is very high, the population savings account for a relatively small amount in the national savings, which makes the social average consumption tendency and marginal benefit. Consumption tends to decline, while the government and state-owned enterprises driven by investment to stimulate economic growth have promoted the increase of ineffective supply, which ultimately shows the relatively inadequate consumption demand of the economy as a whole.
5. the transformation of surplus domestic savings into investment needs the aid of the international balance of payments channel to expand the scale of the capital account surplus. Due to the underdevelopment of China's financial market, China's surplus national savings is not directly converted into domestic investment through the domestic financial market under the stimulus of the preferential policy of foreign capital, but the international financial market in the form of FDI is needed. On the one hand, China has accumulated foreign exchange reserves through trade surplus to become a capital exporter, mainly in the foreign bond market and the currency market, and on the other hand, through China's foreign exchange reserve. The FDI of financing has returned to China, mainly investing in corporate equity.
(four) the impact of China's double surplus, sustainability and rebalancing mechanism.
The influence of the 1. double surplus on China's economic interests
The double surplus caused a huge accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, and the hedging intervention mechanism under the exchange rate regulation formed the expectation of RMB appreciation, which eventually led to the spiral "self realization" of the appreciation of the RMB. Foreign exchange occupied the main source of China's excess liquidity, while raising the deposit reserve ratio and issuing central bank bills could only temporarily "seal" surplus flow. In fact, it does not eliminate inflation and asset price bubble expectations caused by excess liquidity. The cost of suppressing excess liquidity is becoming more and more expensive, and the independence and effectiveness of China's macro regulation are seriously threatened. The real purchasing power of reserves has declined rapidly. After years of accumulated trade surplus, national wealth is being eroded by the US dollar depreciation strategy.
The sustainability of the 2. double surplus
In the short term, China's trade surplus will continue to exist, but the scale will gradually shrink. However, at this stage, China's export advantages still exist, both government and enterprises will not give up this advantage easily; at the same time, China's export oriented economic transformation takes time and consumption growth still takes some time, which determines that export dependence will not disappear quickly. In addition, as China's economic growth prospects are relatively good, the return on investment in the Chinese market is highly competitive in the world, and the scale of the financial project surplus will not be rapidly narrowed.
However, in the long run, the global economic imbalance is difficult to continue, and Western debt countries need to tighten fiscal expenditure. The shrinking of foreign demand seems to be forming, and the future is going to be a huge blow to China's exports, and the trade surplus may fall quickly, forcing China's export oriented economic structure to make adjustments as soon as possible.
Rebalancing mechanism of 3. double surplus
The economic benefits of the double surplus for many years have made China able to adjust its own economic and financial strategies, deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, expand the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, seize the opportunity to transform the international monetary system from the dollar standard to diversification, push forward the internationalization strategy of the people's currency, and strive to get rid of the dollar dependence; Large domestic consumption demand, adjust export export oriented economic policy, and increase foreign investment.
(five) an empirical test of the effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance.
The positive analysis method uses the vector autoregressive model (VAR) to carry out cointegration test, error correction, impulse response and variance decomposition. This paper holds that the effect of RMB exchange rate on trade balance is not significant. The appreciation of RMB can inhibit the expansion of trade surplus in the short term, but in the long term, the effect of RMB exchange rate on trade conditions is uncertain. The effect of the foreign demand on China's trade surplus is far greater than the RMB exchange rate, and the RMB exchange rate is not the main reason for the expansion of the trade surplus. At the same time, it is found that the increase of domestic demand has no significant influence on the trade surplus level. The problem of trade imbalance between them.
(six) the mechanism of the RMB exchange rate decision
At present, the stability of the exchange rate is conducive to strengthening the expectations of the world's economic growth and confidence in the renminbi, the transformation of China's export oriented economy and the promotion of the strategy of RMB internationalization. However, the stability of the RMB exchange rate can not be simply "nailed down", and the ability to monitor the international capital flow should be improved. In the process of promoting the reform of the RMB exchange rate system, it is necessary to maintain effective control of the cross-border flow of capital and promote the interest rate market process as soon as possible.
(seven) the choice of RMB exchange rate system
At present, the management floating exchange rate system in China is in line with the current macroeconomic benefits, which is conducive to alleviating the adverse effects of the significant fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate on China's economic transformation. We should stabilize expectations and flexible management of exchange rate system and create a suitable reform environment.
(eight) inadequacies
1. because of my limited knowledge, the understanding of the theoretical model is not thorough, and the econometric model is slightly simple. At the same time, the empirical analysis may cause the conclusion to deviate from the correct direction because of the data collection and processing.
2. this paper does not establish an innovative quantitative model to analyze the impact of the RMB exchange rate on trade balance, and only uses the existing mature measurement model to carry out an empirical test, and does not establish a more accurate model to prove the effect of exchange rate on China's trade balance.
3. because the choice of exchange rate policy is greatly influenced by the path of national policy and economic reform, even involving international political factors, this paper does not establish a theoretical framework for the analysis of the RMB exchange rate decision mechanism, only combining the empirical test of the impact of the RMB exchange rate on the trade balance, and the mechanism of the determination of the RMB exchange rate is rationed. It is possible to make the result of analysis biased on the empirical analysis. The views on some problems may be too subjective and not mature enough.
【學位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6

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