本文選題：貨幣流通速度 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論��； 參考：《河北大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：如果從亞當(dāng)斯密思考國民財(cái)富增加的路徑的開始算起，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論已經(jīng)有245年的歷史。這二百多年正是人類經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展最快的時(shí)代，毋庸置疑經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論對(duì)近現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速增長(zhǎng)有不可估量的作用。然而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論更注重對(duì)長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的研究，難以給出短期宏觀策略的戰(zhàn)術(shù)指引。從這個(gè)角度研究經(jīng)濟(jì)的短期增長(zhǎng)，并同政府的現(xiàn)實(shí)宏觀決策聯(lián)系起來具有很強(qiáng)的理論意義；從各國政府對(duì)2008年金融危機(jī)缺乏預(yù)警看，從引導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟(jì)在短期內(nèi)平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行、減小經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)、減輕經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)對(duì)人們的影響角度看，建立短期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模型加強(qiáng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的預(yù)警、識(shí)別經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫，有極強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先介紹了貨幣流通速度和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論的國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀，然后重點(diǎn)分析梳理了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論，說明了研究短期增長(zhǎng)理論的必要性。經(jīng)過一系列準(zhǔn)備后，本文總結(jié)了影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的短期因素，構(gòu)造了短期的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)函數(shù)，并從理論上推導(dǎo)了變量間的相互作用過程，提出了識(shí)別經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫的方法。本文建立了以貨幣流通速度為基礎(chǔ)的短期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模型，并通過向量誤差修正模型、脈沖分析等計(jì)量手段研究了短期內(nèi)各變量的相互作用形式的具體過程。最后，文章總結(jié)了各變量的經(jīng)濟(jì)意義以及在宏觀調(diào)控中所發(fā)揮的作用。
[Abstract]:If Adam Smith started thinking about the path to increase national wealth, the economic growth theory was 245 years old. These two hundred years are the times of the fastest development of human economy, and there is no doubt that the theory of economic growth plays an inestimable role in the rapid growth of modern economy. However, the theory of economic growth pays more attention to the study of long-term economic growth, and it is difficult to give the tactical guidance of short-term macro-strategy. It is of great theoretical significance to study the short-term growth of the economy from this angle and to link it with the government's realistic macro decision. From the point of view of the lack of early warning of the 2008 financial crisis by the governments of various countries, and from the point of view of guiding the economy to run smoothly in the short term, From the point of view of reducing economic fluctuation and reducing the impact of economic crisis on people, it is of great practical significance to establish a short-term economic growth model to strengthen the early warning of economic fluctuation and to identify economic bubbles. This paper first introduces the domestic and foreign research status of the theory of currency circulation velocity and economic growth, then analyzes and combs the theory of economic growth, and explains the necessity of studying the theory of short-term growth. After a series of preparations, this paper summarizes the short-term factors that affect the economic growth, constructs the short-term economic growth function, deduces the interaction process between variables theoretically, and puts forward a method to identify the economic bubble. In this paper, a short-term economic growth model based on the velocity of money circulation is established, and the specific process of the interaction of variables in the short term is studied by means of vector error correction model and pulse analysis. Finally, the paper summarizes the economic significance of each variable and its role in macro-control.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F820

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