本文選題：非正規(guī)金融 + 貨幣政策　； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著各地民間借貸危機(jī)的密集爆發(fā),非正規(guī)金融被推到了風(fēng)口浪尖上,非正規(guī)金融的合法化也又一次被提上議程。所謂非正規(guī)金融,從行政審批的角度上來(lái)說(shuō),是指那些沒(méi)有經(jīng)過(guò)中央政府批準(zhǔn)從而處于政府監(jiān)管之外的金融活動(dòng)和金融機(jī)構(gòu),隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,這一概念如今還包括了那些由正規(guī)金融機(jī)構(gòu)所主導(dǎo)和從事的不正規(guī)金融活動(dòng)。 傳統(tǒng)的理論認(rèn)為非正規(guī)金融是在金融抑制中萌芽的,發(fā)展中國(guó)家的金融抑制導(dǎo)致正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)總是供給不足,由此產(chǎn)生了資金缺口；此外,在中國(guó)長(zhǎng)期的二元經(jīng)濟(jì)體制’下,金融資源的投放帶有很強(qiáng)的政策導(dǎo)向,以至于農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)和個(gè)體民營(yíng)經(jīng)濟(jì)很難獲得來(lái)源于正規(guī)金融機(jī)構(gòu)的資金。正是在這種背景下,產(chǎn)生一個(gè)不同于正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)的、能夠滿(mǎn)足多余資金需求的非金融市場(chǎng),從而在中國(guó)形成了正規(guī)金融與非正規(guī)金融并存的二元金融體制。 與正規(guī)金融相比,非正規(guī)金融更加善于處理貸款中的“軟信息”,因此,在一定范圍內(nèi),非正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)能夠有效克服道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn),實(shí)現(xiàn)較低的邊際貸款成本。此外,非正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)還能夠吸收社會(huì)閑散資金,來(lái)滿(mǎn)足借款人急迫的資金需求,從而達(dá)到有效配置社會(huì)資源的作用。但是,我們也看到,一方面,隨著參與主體范圍的擴(kuò)大,非正規(guī)金融在克服道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)上的優(yōu)勢(shì)會(huì)而逐漸消失；另一方面,由于非正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)高收益回報(bào)的誘惑,越來(lái)越多的人參與到非正規(guī)金融活動(dòng)中,從而資金鏈逐漸被拉長(zhǎng),以至于在監(jiān)管缺失的情況下,造成非正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)的各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的累積,這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隨著非正規(guī)金融與正規(guī)金融的相互滲透而進(jìn)入到正規(guī)金融體系,給金融的穩(wěn)定帶來(lái)巨大的潛在威脅,這也正是眾多學(xué)者呼吁讓非正規(guī)金融合法化的原因。 鑒于非正規(guī)金融存在潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),本文創(chuàng)作的目的正是要研究政府能否通過(guò)實(shí)施貨幣政策對(duì)非正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行調(diào)控?而非正規(guī)金融又能對(duì)貨幣政策帶來(lái)怎樣的影響?更重要的是在非正規(guī)金融與貨幣政策可能存在的關(guān)聯(lián)下思考非正規(guī)金融是否應(yīng)當(dāng)合法化?在合法化呼聲越來(lái)越高的今天是否還存在一些現(xiàn)實(shí)問(wèn)題使得合法化不能順利推進(jìn)?而如果存在這些問(wèn)題,又能有什么樣的對(duì)策? 在結(jié)構(gòu)上,本文共分為六部分。第一部分導(dǎo)論主要交代了非正規(guī)金融的一些背景,同時(shí)從存在性,利率研究和與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)性三方面出發(fā)對(duì)非正規(guī)金融的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)作了大致的回顧,另外,本章還闡明了創(chuàng)作的意圖和將要使用的方法。 本文第二部分對(duì)非正規(guī)金融的內(nèi)涵作出了界定,明確了本文所討論的非正規(guī)金融范圍,同時(shí)對(duì)常見(jiàn)的幾種非正規(guī)金融組織形式進(jìn)行了描述；另外,在這一部分,本文總結(jié)了非正規(guī)金融產(chǎn)生的理論邏輯并對(duì)個(gè)別理論進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià)。 第三部分是關(guān)于我國(guó)非正規(guī)金融發(fā)展路徑的論述,這部分主要回顧了我國(guó)非正規(guī)金融組織形式的發(fā)展并以直觀簡(jiǎn)明的圖表形式展示了該過(guò)程。另外,這部分還對(duì)最近我國(guó)非正規(guī)金融出現(xiàn)的新的趨勢(shì)作了論述,認(rèn)為非正規(guī)金融由于資金流向趨于投機(jī)化、參與主體越來(lái)越多元化而累積了許多潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 在第四部分,本文重點(diǎn)研究了貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)非正規(guī)金融的影響。該部分的研究從邏輯上來(lái)說(shuō)有兩層,一層是說(shuō)明在發(fā)展中國(guó)家普遍存在的利率管制下,正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)總會(huì)產(chǎn)生資金缺口,從而導(dǎo)致了非正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)的高利率；另一層是說(shuō)明在這種資金缺口下,考慮正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)可能存在尋租行為,那么當(dāng)正規(guī)金融和非正規(guī)金融同時(shí)存在時(shí),借款人選擇在哪個(gè)金融市場(chǎng)上融資取決于正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)融資成本和非正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)融資成本的比較,此時(shí),正規(guī)金融利率與非正規(guī)金融利率間存在一個(gè)理論上的關(guān)系,在此關(guān)系之下,無(wú)論貨幣政策趨緊或是趨松,正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)利率與非正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)利率間總是存在著同向變動(dòng)的趨勢(shì),只不過(guò)變動(dòng)的程度有差異。 第五部分是我國(guó)非正規(guī)金融對(duì)貨幣政策影響的分析及實(shí)證研究。在對(duì)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行回顧的基礎(chǔ)上,本文從以下三個(gè)方面完成了該部分的研究：一是考慮了一個(gè)在非正規(guī)金融存在下的貨幣供給模型,通過(guò)分析說(shuō)明了在一定范圍內(nèi),非正規(guī)金融的存在能夠使得實(shí)際的貨幣乘數(shù)變大,在基礎(chǔ)貨幣不變的情況下,增加社會(huì)實(shí)際貨幣供給量,反映出非正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)可能具備一定的貨幣創(chuàng)造功能,此外,本文還從理論上分析了非正規(guī)金融的存在可能會(huì)影響貨幣流通速度以及干擾貨幣政策指向性；二是運(yùn)用收入支出法對(duì)非正規(guī)金融信貸額進(jìn)行了估算并就估算結(jié)果作出了分析,結(jié)果表明,估算出的非正規(guī)金融信貸規(guī)模遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于正規(guī)金融信貸規(guī)模,此外,本文還結(jié)合宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的變化,對(duì)這一估算的非正規(guī)金融信貸額的變化進(jìn)行了分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)非正規(guī)金融信貸規(guī)模的大小可以從側(cè)面反映出宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的變化；三是利用估算出的非正規(guī)金融信貸額對(duì)廣義貨幣M2做了實(shí)證分析,實(shí)證的思路是分別建立以廣義貨幣M2為被解釋變量,以正規(guī)金融信貸額為解釋變量的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型和以廣義貨幣M2為被解釋變量,以正規(guī)及非正規(guī)金融信貸總額為解釋變量的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型,而后通過(guò)分析這兩個(gè)模型的系數(shù)變化,判斷非正規(guī)金融對(duì)M2進(jìn)而對(duì)貨幣政策的影響。在實(shí)證的過(guò)程中,為了消除異方差,首先對(duì)這三個(gè)變量取對(duì)數(shù),接著依次做了平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn),協(xié)整并建立了兩個(gè)具有長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系的回歸模型及各自的誤差修正模型。 本文通過(guò)觀察這兩個(gè)回歸模型的變量系數(shù),發(fā)現(xiàn)非正規(guī)金融信貸額對(duì)廣義貨幣M2僅產(chǎn)生了微小的正的影響,因此可以粗略認(rèn)為非正規(guī)金融信貸額對(duì)M2的影響并沒(méi)有反映到M2的統(tǒng)計(jì)中；此外,本文對(duì)這部分微小的正的影響也做出了解釋,得出非正規(guī)金融的資金有一小部分來(lái)自于正規(guī)金融的結(jié)論,并就該結(jié)論輔以了相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)支持。結(jié)合前文的理論分析,綜上,非正規(guī)金融既能擴(kuò)大貨幣供給但又不易被觀察的特質(zhì)會(huì)給宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行帶來(lái)一定的影響,亦不利于貨幣政策的實(shí)施。 在第六部分中,本文通過(guò)以上理論和實(shí)證分析,明確了非正規(guī)金融與貨幣政策間的相互關(guān)聯(lián),故本文認(rèn)為,從保持經(jīng)濟(jì)活力,維持金融穩(wěn)定的角度出發(fā),非正規(guī)金融應(yīng)該被合法化。鑒于此,本文進(jìn)一步分析了目前非正規(guī)金融合法化仍面臨的現(xiàn)實(shí)困境是金融體制的長(zhǎng)期壟斷性和立法細(xì)則難以達(dá)成共識(shí)。在未來(lái)非正規(guī)金融合法化的道路上,本文提出了一點(diǎn)拙見(jiàn),即認(rèn)為非正規(guī)金融的合法一方面需要制定專(zhuān)門(mén)的法律,另一方面需要有發(fā)揮最終貸款人作用的存款保險(xiǎn)機(jī)構(gòu)為非正規(guī)金融的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展保駕護(hù)航。 通過(guò)六個(gè)部分的論述,本文得出的觀點(diǎn)是：貨幣政策影響非正規(guī)金融市場(chǎng)利率,而非正規(guī)金融能夠擴(kuò)大貨幣供給但這種影響無(wú)法反映在M2的統(tǒng)計(jì)中,從而抑制了以貨幣供給量為中介目標(biāo)的貨幣政策的實(shí)施,因此,非正規(guī)金融尋求合法化道路。 本文的創(chuàng)作主要有以下三方面特點(diǎn)：一是本文通過(guò)理論模型得出非正規(guī)金融與貨幣政策間存在相互影響的關(guān)系；其次,本文在對(duì)非正規(guī)金融規(guī)模估算的過(guò)程中,運(yùn)用了現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)中較少用到的收入支出法,并對(duì)估算過(guò)程作了詳細(xì)的說(shuō)明,在此基礎(chǔ)上,將非正規(guī)金融信貸規(guī)模的估算擴(kuò)展到了2009年；最后,本文運(yùn)用計(jì)量檢驗(yàn)的方法實(shí)證了非正規(guī)金融對(duì)貨幣供給量進(jìn)而對(duì)貨幣政策的影響,在選取M2作為被解釋變量的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)造了兩個(gè)具有長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系的回歸模型,通過(guò)比較這兩個(gè)模型的系數(shù)得出非正規(guī)金融對(duì)貨幣供給量的影響在M2的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)中得到體現(xiàn)的結(jié)論,說(shuō)明非正規(guī)金融使貨幣政策的效果難以被控制。 當(dāng)然,本文的創(chuàng)作也存在一些不足。首先本文在估算非正規(guī)金融信貸規(guī)模時(shí),由于原始數(shù)據(jù)的缺乏,沒(méi)能估算出近兩年的非正規(guī)金融信貸規(guī)模,同時(shí),由于估算方法的缺陷,可能導(dǎo)致了估算結(jié)果偏小；再者,本文進(jìn)行實(shí)證時(shí),僅僅選取了信貸規(guī)模作為解釋變量,沒(méi)有考慮其他因素對(duì)廣義貨幣的影響,可能使得模型的結(jié)果不夠精準(zhǔn)。這些也正是論文本身今后還需努力的地方。
[Abstract]:With the dense outbreak of private lending crises, informal finance has been pushed to the tip of the storm, and the legalization of informal finance has been put on the agenda again. The so-called informal finance, from the perspective of administrative approval, refers to financial and financial machines that have not been approved by the central government and are outside government supervision. With the continuous development of the economy, the concept also includes informal financial activities dominated by formal financial institutions.
The traditional theory holds that informal finance is in the bud of financial restraining. The financial restraining of the developing countries leads to the shortage of the regular financial market, which leads to the shortage of funds. In addition, under the long-term two yuan economic system in China, the investment of financial resources has a strong policy orientation so that the rural economy and the individual are the individual. It is very difficult for the private economy to obtain funds from the regular financial institutions. It is in this context that a non-financial market, which is different from the regular financial market, can meet the needs of excess funds, has formed a two yuan financial system that coexists between regular finance and informal finance in China.
Compared with regular finance, informal finance is better at dealing with "soft information" in loans. Therefore, in a certain range, the informal financial market can effectively overcome the moral risk and achieve a lower marginal loan cost. In addition, the informal financial market can also absorb the idle funds to meet the urgent needs of the borrowers. In order to achieve the effective allocation of social resources, we also see that, on the one hand, with the expansion of the scope of participation, the advantages of informal finance in overcoming moral risks will gradually disappear; on the other hand, more and more people are involved in informal financial activities due to the temptation of high return on non formal financial markets. Therefore, the capital chain is gradually lengthened so that under the absence of supervision, the risk of the informal financial market is accumulated. These risks enter into the formal financial system with the mutual infiltration of informal finance and regular finance, and bring huge potential threat to the stability of the finance. The reasons for the integration of the rules of the rules.
In view of the potential risks of informal finance, the purpose of this article is to study whether the government can regulate the informal financial market through the implementation of monetary policy, and how does the informal finance affect the monetary policy? More importantly, it is not formal to think about the possible relationship between the informal finance and the currency policy. Should finance be legalized? Is there some realistic problems in today's legitimization calls for legalization that can not be promoted smoothly? And if these problems exist, what kind of countermeasures can there be?
In structure, this article is divided into six parts. The first part introduces some background of informal finance, and gives a general review of the related literature of informal finance from three aspects of existence, interest rate research and macroeconomic correlation. In addition, this chapter also clarifies the intention of the creation and the methods to be used.
The second part of this paper defines the connotation of informal finance, clarifies the informal financial scope discussed in this article, and describes the forms of several common informal financial organizations. In addition, in this part, this paper summarizes the theoretical logic of the informal finance and evaluates the individual theories.
The third part is about the informal financial development path of our country. This part mainly reviews the development of the informal financial organization in our country and shows the process in the form of intuitive and concise chart. In addition, this part also discusses the new trend of the recent informal finance in our country, and thinks that the informal finance is due to the funds. The flow tends to be opportunistic, and the participants are more and more diversified, which has accumulated many potential risks.
In the fourth part, this paper focuses on the impact of monetary policy on China's informal finance. This part of the study has two layers of logic, one is that under the prevailing interest rate control in developing countries, the formal financial market will produce a capital gap, thus leading to the high interest rate in the informal financial market; the other is the other. It shows that there may be rent-seeking behavior in the formal financial market under this financial gap, so when the regular finance and the informal finance exist simultaneously, the borrower's choice in which financial market depends on the comparison between the financing cost of the regular financial market and the financing cost of the informal financial market. At this time, the formal financial interest rate and the non positive financial market are not positive. There is a theoretical relationship between the regulatory financial interest rate, and under this relationship, no matter the tightening or loosening of monetary policy, there is always a trend of the same change between the interest rate of regular financial market and the interest rate of the informal financial market, but the degree of change is different.
The fifth part is the analysis and Empirical Study of the influence of Informal Finance on monetary policy in China. On the basis of reviewing related literature, this paper has completed the research from the following three aspects: first, it considers a model of money supply in the presence of informal finance, and shows that in a certain range, it is not positive. The existence of regular finance can make the actual monetary multiplier become larger, and increase the actual money supply of the society under the condition of the basic currency, which reflects that the informal financial market may have certain monetary creation function. In addition, this paper also theoretically analyses the existence of irregular gold melting in theory. The directivity of monetary policy is disturbed; two is the use of income expenditure method to estimate the amount of informal financial credit and analyze the results of the estimate. The results show that the estimated size of the informal financial credit is far below the scale of the regular financial credit. In addition, this paper also combines the changes in the macroeconomic situation to the informal gold of this estimate. The changes in the amount of credit credit are analyzed, and the size of the informal financial credit can be reflected from the side of the macroeconomic situation. Three, the empirical analysis of the generalized currency M2 is made by using the estimated amount of informal financial credit. The empirical idea is to establish the generalized currency M2 as the explanatory variable and the formal finance. The econometric model of the amount of credit is the explanatory variable and the econometric model which takes the M2 as the explanatory variable and the formal and informal financial credit as the explanatory variable. Then by analyzing the change of the coefficient of the two models, the influence of the informal finance on the policy of M2 to the currency is judged. In addition to the heteroscedasticity, the logarithm of the three variables is first taken, then the stability test is done in turn, and two regression models with long-term equilibrium relations and their respective error correction models are co integrated and established.
By observing the variable coefficients of the two regression models, this paper finds that the amount of informal financial credit has only a slight positive effect on the generalized monetary M2, so it can be roughly considered that the effect of the informal financial credit on the M2 is not reflected in the statistics of M2; moreover, the small positive impact of this part is also explained. It is concluded that a small part of informal finance comes from the conclusion of formal finance, and the conclusion is supported by relevant data. In combination with the previous theoretical analysis, the characteristics of informal finance which can not only expand the supply of money but are not easily observed will bring a certain impact on the smooth operation of the macro-economy, and it is also not conducive to the monetary policy. The implementation of the policy.
In the sixth part, through the above theory and empirical analysis, the interrelation between informal finance and monetary policy is clarified. Therefore, this paper believes that the informal finance should be legalized from the perspective of maintaining economic vitality and maintaining financial stability. In view of this, this paper further analyzes the current informal financial legalization still facing. The real dilemma is that the long-term monopoly of the financial system and the legislative rules are difficult to reach a consensus. On the road of the legalization of the informal finance in the future, this paper puts forward a little humble opinion, that is to think that the legal one on the one hand of informal finance needs to make special laws, and on the other hand, the deposit insurance institution with the role of the lender of final credit is needed. The stable development of formal finance is escorted.
Through the discussion of six parts, the point of view is that monetary policy affects the interest rate of the informal financial market, while the non formal finance can expand the supply of money, but this effect can not be reflected in the statistics of M2, thus restraining the implementation of the monetary policy with the target of the money supply as the intermediary, therefore, the informal finance seeks to legalize it. Road.
This paper has the following three main features: first, this paper obtains the mutual influence between the informal finance and the monetary policy through the theoretical model. Secondly, in the process of estimating the informal financial scale, this paper uses the income expenditure method which is less used in the existing literature, and gives a detailed account of the estimation process. On this basis, the estimation of the scale of informal financial credit is extended to 2009. Finally, this paper uses the method of measurement test to demonstrate the influence of the informal finance on the monetary supply and then to the monetary policy. On the basis of the selection of M2 as the explanatory variable, two regression models with long-term equilibrium relationship are constructed. By comparing the coefficients of the two models, the results of the impact of Informal Finance on the supply of money in the M2 statistics show that the effect of the informal finance is difficult to be controlled.
Of course, there are also some shortcomings in this paper. First of all, this paper, when estimating the scale of informal financial credit, can not estimate the size of the informal financial credit in the last two years due to the lack of original data. At the same time, because of the defect of the estimation method, it may lead to a small estimate. The scale of the loan, as an explanatory variable, does not take into account the influence of other factors on the broad currency, which may make the results of the model not accurate enough. These are also where the paper itself needs to work hard in the future.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832;F822.0

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 王志紅;非正規(guī)金融融資研究[D];內(nèi)蒙古大學(xué);2013年

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本文編號(hào)：1882796