本文選題：外商直接投資 + 通貨膨脹��； 參考：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：自從改革開放以來,確立了吸引外商直接投資來帶動中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的方針,外商直接投資在華規(guī)模、質(zhì)量和涉及的領(lǐng)域都不斷擴大。外商直接投資事實上也確實為中國的經(jīng)濟增長做出了一定的貢獻(xiàn)。改革開放30多年來,中國利用外商直接投資也得到了快速發(fā)展�？v觀這三十多年,外商直接投資的增長也是階段性的,分別在1984-1988年、1991-1997年以及2007-2008年呈現(xiàn)明顯的快速增長。而中國的通貨膨脹也出現(xiàn)了明顯的周期性,分別在1985年-1989年、1992-1997年以及2007-2008年出現(xiàn)了明顯的通貨膨脹。具體來說,第一次通貨膨脹的頂峰是1988年,居民消費價格指數(shù)達(dá)到了18.8%這樣的高水平,而在1985年和1986年的時候外商直接投資的年均增長率超過了100%；第二次通貨膨脹的頂峰是在1994年,居民消費價格指數(shù)一度到了24.1%這樣的歷史最高峰,不得不提1993年外商直接投資的增長率為149.95%；2007年以后,外商直接投資的增速頂峰在2007年和2008年,增長率分別為17%和22%,與此同時,居民消費價格水平在2008年2月份達(dá)到了8.7%,創(chuàng)11年新高,其全年的居民消費價格指數(shù)為105.9�？梢�,外商直接投資和我國的通貨膨脹有著較強的聯(lián)系。 本文著重研究了外商直接投資和通貨膨脹的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,對外商直接投資影響通貨膨脹的內(nèi)資機制進(jìn)行了深入研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)外商直接投資會通過貨幣供應(yīng)量渠道、國內(nèi)投資渠道、國際貿(mào)易渠道、匯率渠道以及勞動者報酬渠道等途徑影響通貨膨脹。 第一,外商直接投資會通過出口和進(jìn)口替代以及再投資等活動會間接增加外匯儲備。在現(xiàn)行外匯制度下,中央銀行購買外匯要投入大量的貨幣,形成外匯占款,導(dǎo)致基礎(chǔ)貨幣增加,再通過貨幣乘數(shù)效應(yīng)就會使貨幣供應(yīng)量成倍增加,對通貨膨脹產(chǎn)生壓力。 第二,外商直接投資的流入會造成我國投資增加。這是由于外商直接投資要轉(zhuǎn)化為生產(chǎn)力,需要國內(nèi)與之配套的投資。外商直接投資帶動了相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的投資擴張,從而推動了總需求的增加,進(jìn)一步導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)物價水平的上升。 第三,外商直接投資相關(guān)的設(shè)備、技術(shù)和原材料等的進(jìn)口直接影響東道國的國際貿(mào)易。目前我國的實際情況下,隨著國際貿(mào)易規(guī)模的不斷擴大,我國的貿(mào)易順差也在不斷擴大,從而通過外匯儲備渠道,影響我國的通貨膨脹。另外國際貿(mào)易會通過價格機制傳導(dǎo)通貨膨脹。 第四,外商直接投資導(dǎo)致我國人民幣升值。匯率的提高再推高資產(chǎn)價格的同時,也提高了人們價格上漲的預(yù)期,這也加劇了我國通貨膨脹的壓力。 第五,外商直接投資引起我國工資的上升。工資的提高增加了總需求以及企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)成本,這將會引起我國的通貨膨脹。 為了檢驗外商直接投資對通貨膨脹的理論分析正確與否,我們通過建立誤差修正模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)、方差分解等方法,得出以下結(jié)論：FDI是影響通貨膨脹最重要的因素,它和貨幣供應(yīng)量、固定資產(chǎn)投資一起對通貨膨脹起正向的促進(jìn)作用,而進(jìn)出口總額起抑制通貨膨脹作用;FDI對通貨膨脹具有明顯的滯后效應(yīng)。 最后本文通過優(yōu)化國內(nèi)投資環(huán)境、加強對外商直接投資的引導(dǎo)、深化外匯體質(zhì)改革來緩解外商直接投資對通貨膨脹的壓力。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up , China has established a policy to attract foreign direct investment to drive China ' s economic development . Foreign direct investment ( FDI ) has been expanding rapidly in China ' s scale , quality and related fields . In the past 30 years , China ' s direct investment has also been rapidly growing .
The peak of the second inflation was in 1994 the consumer price index reached the highest peak of 24.1 per cent , and had to mention that the growth rate of foreign direct investment in 1993 was 149.95 per cent ;
After 2007 , the peak of growth of foreign direct investment was 17 % and 22 % in 2007 and 2008 respectively . At the same time , the consumer price level reached 8.7 % in February 2008 , and the consumer price index in the whole year was 105.9 . It can be seen that foreign direct investment and inflation in our country have stronger ties .

In this paper , the internal relations of foreign direct investment and inflation and the mechanism of foreign direct investment ( FDI ) on inflation are studied in this paper . It is found that foreign direct investment can affect inflation through money supply channel , domestic investment channel , international trade channel , exchange rate channel and labor compensation channel .

First , foreign direct investment will indirectly increase foreign exchange reserves through such activities as export and import substitution and re - investment . Under the current foreign exchange system , the central bank purchases foreign exchange to invest a large amount of money to form foreign exchange occupation , which leads to an increase in the base currency , and the monetary multiplier effect increases the money supply volume and exerts pressure on inflation .

Second , the inflow of foreign direct investment will increase the investment of our country . This is because foreign direct investment is to be converted into productive forces , and domestic and domestic investment is required . Foreign direct investment drives investment expansion of the relevant industries , thus promoting the increase of total demand and further causing the rise of domestic price level .

Third , the import of equipment , technology and raw materials related to foreign direct investment directly affects the international trade of the host country . At present , with the expansion of the international trade scale , our country ' s trade surplus is expanding constantly , so that through the foreign exchange reserve channel , the inflation of our country is affected . In addition , the international trade will conduct inflation through the price mechanism .

Fourth , foreign direct investment has led to RMB appreciation of our country . The increase of exchange rate pushes high asset prices , and also increases the expectation of higher prices , which has also contributed to the inflationary pressure in our country .

Fifth , foreign direct investment causes the rise of wages in our country . The increase of wages increases the total demand and the production cost of the enterprise , which will cause inflation in our country .

In order to verify the correctness of the theory analysis of foreign direct investment on inflation , we draw the conclusion that FDI is the most important factor which affects inflation , and it plays a positive role in inflation with money supply and fixed asset investment , while the total import and export volume plays an important role in inhibiting inflation ; FDI has a clear lag effect on inflation .

Finally , through optimizing domestic investment environment , strengthening the direct investment of foreign direct investment , deepening the reform of foreign exchange constitution to alleviate the pressure of foreign direct investment on inflation .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F822.5;F832.6

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