發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-06 16:17

  本文選題：房地產(chǎn) + 金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：1998年,我國(guó)開始實(shí)行住房商品化改革,經(jīng)過十幾年的快速發(fā)展,中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)呈現(xiàn)出過熱勢(shì)頭。2010年年初,中央政府開始了新一輪嚴(yán)厲的房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控,我國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)金融市場(chǎng)隱藏著重大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隱患,因而對(duì)當(dāng)前中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行影響因素的分析顯得十分必要,針對(duì)性地采取積極措施防范和控制房地產(chǎn)融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已是迫在眉睫。 我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響因素是多方面的,多種因素共同作用加大中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)爆發(fā)的可能。本文從主要參與機(jī)構(gòu)——商業(yè)銀行與房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商的行為、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行及房地產(chǎn)政策調(diào)控等相關(guān)因素出發(fā),采取市場(chǎng)定量分析方法探尋商業(yè)性房地產(chǎn)貸款余額、商業(yè)銀行不良貸款余額、開發(fā)企業(yè)各項(xiàng)籌資方式(國(guó)內(nèi)貸款；企業(yè)自籌資金；其他資金來源)、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)相關(guān)因素(房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額；商品房施工面積；商品房竣工面積；商品房銷售面積和商品房銷售均價(jià))等主要指標(biāo)對(duì)中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響。 本文主要對(duì)房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與市場(chǎng)因素指標(biāo)、房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與房企開發(fā)資金來源指標(biāo)之間作了兩兩相關(guān),研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：(1)商業(yè)銀行不良貸款余額與市場(chǎng)因素指標(biāo)(房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額,商品房施工面積,商品房竣工面積,商品房銷售面積和商品房銷售均價(jià))均呈現(xiàn)顯著性負(fù)相關(guān),而商業(yè)性房地產(chǎn)貸款余額與與市場(chǎng)因素指標(biāo)均呈現(xiàn)顯著性正相關(guān)。(2)商業(yè)銀行不良貸款余額與房企房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)資金來源指標(biāo)(國(guó)內(nèi)貸款,企業(yè)自籌資金和其他資金來源)均呈現(xiàn)顯著性負(fù)相關(guān)；而商業(yè)性房地產(chǎn)貸款余額與房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)資金來源指標(biāo)均呈現(xiàn)顯著性正相關(guān)。 為了進(jìn)一步考察各類相關(guān)性因素對(duì)房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響力,采用逐步回歸加以驗(yàn)證,結(jié)果表明：商品房銷售均價(jià)和其他資金來源對(duì)商業(yè)銀行不良貸款余額影響力較大,尤其是商品房銷售均價(jià)。如果受政策調(diào)控影響,商品房銷售均價(jià)進(jìn)入下行通道,商業(yè)銀行不良貸款余額隨之增加,而房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)對(duì)于房地產(chǎn)信托資金及民間資本的資金依賴也同樣會(huì)使得商業(yè)銀行不良貸款余額增加,最終可能導(dǎo)致房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的暴露。而商品房施工面積對(duì)商業(yè)性房地產(chǎn)貸款余額有著決定性影響。我們需密切關(guān)注這些指標(biāo)因素的變化,從這些指標(biāo)入手,對(duì)中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加以防范和控制。
[Abstract]:In 1998, China began to implement housing commercialization reform. After more than ten years of rapid development, China's real estate industry showed a tendency of overheating. At the beginning of 2010, the central government began a new round of strict real estate regulation and control. The real estate financial market of our country has hidden great hidden risks, so it is very necessary to analyze the influencing factors of the real estate financial risks in China at present. It is urgent to take active measures to prevent and control the risk of real estate financing. The influencing factors of real estate financial risk in our country are many aspects, and many factors act together to increase the possibility of the outbreak of real estate financial risk in China. Based on the related factors such as the behavior of commercial banks and real estate developers, the operation of real estate market and the regulation of real estate policies, this paper adopts the method of market quantitative analysis to explore the balance of commercial real estate loans. The balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks, the development of various financing methods of enterprises (domestic loans; self-financing of enterprises; other sources of funds, real estate market related factors (real estate development investment; commercial housing construction area; completed area of commercial housing; The impact of the main indexes, such as the area of commercial housing and the average price of commercial housing, on the financial risk of real estate in China. This paper mainly deals with the financial risk of real estate and the index of market factors, the financial risk of real estate and the index of the source of capital for the development of the real estate enterprise. It is found that the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks is negatively correlated with market factors (real estate development investment, construction area of commercial housing, completed area of commercial housing, sale area of commercial house and average price of commercial house). The commercial real estate loan balance and market factor indicators are significantly positive correlation. 2) commercial bank non-performing loan balance and real estate development capital source indicators (domestic loans, There was a significant negative correlation between the commercial real estate loan balance and the real estate development fund source index, and there was a significant positive correlation between the commercial real estate loan balance and the real estate development fund source index. In order to further investigate the influence of various related factors on the real estate financial risk, it is verified by stepwise regression. The results show that the average price of commercial housing sales and other sources of funds have great influence on the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks. In particular, the average price of commercial housing sales. If, under the influence of policy regulation, the average price of commercial housing sales enters the downward channel, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks will increase accordingly. The capital dependence of real estate enterprises on real estate trust funds and private capital will also increase the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks, which may eventually lead to the exposure of real estate financial risks. And commercial housing construction area to commercial real estate loan balance has a decisive impact. We need to pay close attention to the change of these index factors, starting with these indicators, to prevent and control the real estate financial risks in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F832

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