本文選題：外向直接投資 + 貿(mào)易規(guī)模效應(yīng)��； 參考：《浙江大學(xué)》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：中國對外貿(mào)易以往三十多年的快速發(fā)展并由貿(mào)易小國迅速變?yōu)橘Q(mào)易大國的跳躍式擴(kuò)張,得益于一系列按照時間序列展開與疊加的因素。早期幾乎完全仰仗有限的體制改革和限于特區(qū)的引進(jìn)外資,后來是整個沿海地區(qū)的對外開放,再后來是“入世”與履行“入世”承諾的全方位對外開放,最后則是企業(yè)“走出去”與外向直接投資(ODI)。這些因素相繼成為圍繞中國外貿(mào)擴(kuò)張研究的熱點論題。最近的熱點論題之一,無疑是0DI對于外貿(mào)發(fā)展的效應(yīng)。ODI與外貿(mào)擴(kuò)張原本是國際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的一個老論題,但已有研究存在兩個明顯的偏向：一個是有關(guān)理論幾乎完全基于發(fā)達(dá)工業(yè)化國家以往的現(xiàn)實提出,鮮有基于新興市場經(jīng)濟(jì)體的理論。另一個是大多圍繞著ODI與貿(mào)易的互補抑或替代關(guān)系展開,而忽略了此類效應(yīng)作用的機(jī)理以及別的貿(mào)易效應(yīng),尤其是貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)與貿(mào)易條件效應(yīng)。本文主旨,就在于從新興市場經(jīng)濟(jì)體ODI所具有的特點出發(fā),以中國現(xiàn)實數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù),分析ODI在中國貿(mào)易規(guī)模、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與貿(mào)易條件動態(tài)演化中的系列效應(yīng)。 機(jī)理分析方面,本文從資本流動與母國貿(mào)易的關(guān)系切入,通過對Mundell模型從小國模型到大國模型的擴(kuò)展,刻畫了資本流動對母國貿(mào)易條件變化的作用機(jī)理。考慮到ODI流動中企業(yè)決策的核心地位,故從跨國公司利潤最大化目標(biāo)的假定出發(fā),構(gòu)建了反映ODI母國貿(mào)易效應(yīng)的理論模型,分析了ODI對母國貿(mào)易替代效應(yīng)或互補效應(yīng)的作用機(jī)理。在此基礎(chǔ)上引出三個實證命題,分別圍繞ODI-貿(mào)易數(shù)量動態(tài)變化、ODI-貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)動態(tài)變化以及ODI-貿(mào)易條件動態(tài)變化展開。 實證檢驗以機(jī)理分析為基礎(chǔ),以中國ODI擴(kuò)展現(xiàn)實為線索及依據(jù),構(gòu)建了一個實證檢驗?zāi)Ｐ?引入UNCTAD和WTO數(shù)據(jù)分別對中國ODI的貿(mào)易規(guī)模效應(yīng)、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)和貿(mào)易條件效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了實證檢驗。其中,圍繞第一個命題的實證檢驗證明,中國ODI存量與流量都對外貿(mào)規(guī)模產(chǎn)生了明顯的影響,且存量對外貿(mào)規(guī)模的影響大于流量。具體而言,從1982年到2010年,ODI的貿(mào)易規(guī)模效應(yīng)最為明顯,ODI存量促進(jìn)了貨物貿(mào)易和服務(wù)貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口規(guī)模的全面擴(kuò)張；但從2005至2010年中國ODI的地區(qū)分布看,ODI對貨物出口的影響存在著一定差異,符合“中國式”O(jiān)DI的理論判斷。圍繞第二個實證命題的檢驗證明,當(dāng)ODI-貿(mào)易規(guī)模效應(yīng)發(fā)生,進(jìn)而會產(chǎn)生ODI-貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng),但是ODI-貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)存在著一定的時滯。具體地說,通過時間序列檢驗的ODI母國貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)不如貿(mào)易規(guī)模效應(yīng)顯著；但通過對2006至2010年七個細(xì)分行業(yè)的ODI和貿(mào)易的面板數(shù)據(jù)分析表明,無論ODI存量還是ODI流量都對這些行業(yè)的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生了影響。圍繞第三個實證命題的檢驗證明,ODI會產(chǎn)生一定的貿(mào)易條件效應(yīng),但ODI不是決定貿(mào)易條件變化的最主要因素。通過時間序列對ODI的貿(mào)易條件效應(yīng)進(jìn)行檢驗表明,ODI產(chǎn)生了一定的貿(mào)易條件效應(yīng),ODI存量一定程度上有助于中國貿(mào)易條件改善,而ODI流量卻加速了貿(mào)易條件的惡化,但是影響貿(mào)易條件效應(yīng)變化的最主要因素仍然是國際與國內(nèi)市場的需求變化。 上述結(jié)論的理論意義,首先在于對ODI-貿(mào)易效應(yīng)論題研究視野的拓展與命題本身的深化。從作為新興市場經(jīng)濟(jì)體而具有的“中國式ODI”特征切入,將論題由單純的貿(mào)易規(guī)模效應(yīng)拓展至結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)和貿(mào)易條件效應(yīng),同時對以往研究所關(guān)注的規(guī)模效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了綜合視野的動態(tài)化拓展。實證檢驗按照命題要求探索了新的方法。研究的現(xiàn)實政策啟示在于,政府旨在鼓勵企業(yè)“走出去”與對外投資的政策目標(biāo),不僅應(yīng)考慮其單純的境外市場與境外資源開拓效應(yīng)帶來的貿(mào)易規(guī)模效應(yīng),而且更重要的應(yīng)考慮其貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)和貿(mào)易條件效應(yīng),后兩種貿(mào)易效應(yīng)包涵了更多的貿(mào)易福利內(nèi)涵。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of China's foreign trade over the past thirty years has been rapidly transformed from a small trade country to a big trading country. It has benefited from a series of factors that are unfolded and superimposed on a series of time series. Early on the limited system reform and the introduction of foreign capital limited to the special Economic Zone, it was later the opening of the whole coastal area. It is the full opening of "entering WTO" and fulfilling the promise of "entering WTO", and the last is the enterprise "going out" and outward direct investment (ODI). These factors have become a hot topic around the research of China's foreign trade expansion. One of the most recent hot topics is that the effect of 0DI on foreign trade development and foreign trade expansion is the original country. There is an old topic in the economics of InterWorld, but there are two obvious deviations in the study. One is that the theory is almost entirely based on the previous realities of the developed industrialized countries, and there are few theories based on emerging market economies. The other is mostly centered on the complementary or alternative relationship between ODI and trade, and neglects such effects. The mechanism and other trade effects, especially the trade structure effect and the trade condition effect. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the series effects of ODI in China's trade scale, trade structure and the dynamic evolution of trade conditions on the basis of the characteristics of ODI in emerging market economies.
In the aspect of mechanism analysis, this paper starts from the relationship between capital flow and home country trade. Through the expansion of the Mundell model from the small country model to the big country model, this paper portrays the mechanism of the action of capital flow to the change of the country's trade conditions. Considering the core position of the enterprise's decision-making in the ODI flow, it is assumed that the profit maximization target of the multinational corporation is assumed. The theoretical model that reflects the trade effect of ODI home country is constructed, and the mechanism of ODI's effect on the trade substitution effect or complementary effect of the country's trade is analyzed. On this basis, three positional propositions are derived, which revolve around the dynamic changes in the quantity of ODI- trade, the dynamic changes of the ODI- trade structure and the dynamic changes of the ODI- trade conditions.
The empirical test is based on the mechanism analysis, and based on the Chinese ODI expansion reality as the clue and basis, a empirical test model is constructed. The empirical test of the trade scale effect, trade structure effect and trade condition effect of China ODI is tested by introducing UNCTAD and WTO data respectively. The empirical test of the first proposition proves that China ODI Both stock and flow have a significant impact on the scale of foreign trade, and the impact of stock on the scale of foreign trade is greater than that of the flow. From 1982 to 2010, ODI has the most obvious trade scale effect, and the ODI stock promoted the overall expansion of the import and export of goods trade and service trade, but the regional distribution of ODI in China from 2005 to 2010. Look, there is a certain difference in the effect of ODI on the export of goods, which is in line with the theoretical judgment of "Chinese style" ODI. The test of second positional propositions proves that when the scale effect of ODI- trade occurs, then the ODI- trade structure effect will be produced, but there is a certain time lag in the ODI- trade structure effect. The trade structure effect of the ODI country is not as significant as the trade scale effect. But the analysis of the panel data of the ODI and trade of the seven segments of the 2006 to 2010 shows that both the ODI stock and the ODI flow have an impact on the trade structure of these industries. The test of the third positional propositions proves that ODI will produce a certain trade bar. Part effect, but ODI is not the most important factor in determining the change of trade conditions. Through the test of the trade condition effect of ODI through time series, it shows that ODI has a certain trade condition effect, and the ODI stock is helpful to the improvement of China's trade conditions to some extent, while the ODI flow has accelerated the deterioration of the trade conditions, but it affects the trade conditions. The most important factor of the change is still the demand change in the international and domestic markets.
The theoretical significance of the above conclusions lies in the expansion of the research field of the ODI- trade effect thesis and the deepening of the proposition itself. From the characteristics of "Chinese type ODI" as a new market economy, it extends the topic from the simple trade scale effect to the structure effect and the trade condition effect. At the same time, it pays attention to the previous research. The practical policy enlightenment of the study is that the government aims to encourage the policy goals of "going out" and foreign investment by the government, which should not only consider the scale effect of its pure overseas market and the exploitation effect of overseas resources. More importantly, trade structure effect and trade condition effect should be considered. The latter two trade effects contain more trade benefits connotation.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6;F752;F224

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